| International transport corridors connect economic centers,logistics hubs and ports in different countries,and are important carriers for countries along the route to achieve interconnection.Based on the transportation agreement,countries along the routes can use international transport corridors to transport goods to their destinations at a reasonable cost and time,promote economic and trade exchanges between different regions,and then promote economic and social development in the areas along the route and increase the welfare of residents.The China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey international transport corridor(CPITITC)is an important skeleton of the Silk Road Economic Belt.It starts from the southwest and northwest of China,passes through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,extends westward,connects with Iran,Turkey and other countries,and finally realizes interconnection with Western Europe.The CPITITC can connect the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor.It is an important land corridor for the inland areas of western China to South Asia,West Asia and Europe.In this thesis,the effectiveness of international transport corridor is defined as transnational transport capacity and economic impact on countries along the route,in which the former is called the transport effectiveness of international transport corridor and the latter is called the economic effectiveness of international transport corridor.Firstly,this paper makes a theoretical analysis on the spatio-temporal evolution process and effectiveness transition of international transport corridor,depicts the effectiveness characteristics of international transport corridor in different evolution stages,constructs an evolutionary game model of three parties(including the origin country,the transit country and the destination country)on the cooperation of international transport corridor effectiveness improvement,and analyzes the cooperation mechanism and influencing factors of international transport corridor effectiveness improvement.In the part of empirical analysis,the transport effectiveness of CPITITC is evaluated from four aspects: transport distance-time,transport cost,capacity and stability.According to the temporal and spatial evolution stage of international transport corridor,five simulation scenarioes are set,and the economic effectiveness of CPITITC is evaluated by the GTAP model from impacts of the gross domestic product(GDP),residents’ welfare,terms of trade,import and export trade volume and industrial output.The theoretical research shows that the development of an international transport corridor has become a means of cross-border spatial governance.The quartering method of an international transport corridor development stage(international link corridor-international logistics corridor-international economic corridor-international free trade zone)not only incorporates the temporal and spatial evolution law of international transport corridor,but also fully embodies the attribute of “transnational spatial governance and development function”.When the international transport corridor evolves from the international link corridor to the international logistics corridor,the transport effectiveness of the international transport corridor realizes a leap;when it evolves from the international logistics corridor to the international economic corridor,the economic effectiveness of the international transport corridor realizes a leap.The cooperation enthusiasm,transfer payment,sunk cost and reputation of countries along the route have a positive impact on the effectiveness improvement of international transport corridor,but excessive transfer payment and opportunistic strategy would hinder the effectiveness improvement.The evaluation of transport effectiveness shows that CPITITC has obvious geographical advantages,but it is still in the stage of international link corridor.Under the scenario of railway connectivity,the transport effectiveness of the CPITITC has achieved a transition.Taking Chongqing to Pakistan and Iran as an example,compared with the international maritime multimodal transport corridor,The CPITITC has obvious distance-time advantages and no absolute cost disadvantage.Under the setting of low railway rates,the transport cost of Chongqing to Islamabad is even significantly lower than that of the international maritime multimodal transport corridor.The transport time of Chongqing to Tehran can be saved by 69% at the cost of additional38%.For China to Western Europe,compared with the China Railway Express(Chongqing)Corridor,the CPITITC has disadvantages in terms of transport distance and costs.The container transport capacity of CPITITC can reach 500,000 ～ 1.5 million TEU/ year,and its transport effectiveness will be fully released in the future.It is necessary to further strengthen the capacity upgrading of key nodes and hubs.Transport reliability is a potential shortcoming of the transport efficiency of CPITITC.According to the economic effectiveness evaluation,with the temporal and spatial evolution,the economic effectiveness of CPITITC has been continuously improved,and the GDP,the national welfare,the trade scale and the advantageous industries ouputs of the four countries along the route have all increased.Under scenario 5(the advanced stage of the international corridor development),China’s GDP increased by 0.31%,the residents’ welfare increased by 56.402 billion US dollars,the terms of trade improved by1.20%,the exports increased by 1.55%,and the imports increased by 3.87%.Due to the heterogeneity of resource endowment,industrial base and economic aggregate in China,Pakistan,Iran and Turkey,the potential benefits obtained by the four countries from the improvement of corridor effectiveness are different;The effectiveness improvement of CPITITC has changed the international trade and transport conditions along the route,and then affects the output of different industries in various countries.The outputs of some industries decreased,and the interests of specific groups are affected.At the same time,the simulation results also showed that some extraterritorial economies have potential losses in terms of GDP and residents’ welfare.Therefore,in the development of the effectiveness improvement of the international transport corridor,it is necessary to take into account the interests of various stakeholders.To improve the effectiveness and comprehensive development of CPITITC,it is necessary to focus on solving the problem of low construction and development level of transport infrastructure at key nodes and hubs of the corridor,explore diversified financing and cost sharing modes of cross-border transport facilities,and give full play to the supporting role of engineering technology in corridor construction;Through the integration of transportation and economy,stakeholders should explore and innovate the operation mode of “logistics+trade+industry”,and make the international link corridor become an international logistics corridor with endogenous competitiveness.In dealing with risks,strategies can be forward-looking,and tactics should be prudent to follow the trend;at the same time,strengthen the communication and governance of stakeholders to resolve potential risks. |
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