| Report of the 19 th national congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)pointed out that in order to accelerate the improvement of the socialist market economy system,it is necessary to deepen the reform of the financial system and enhance the financial service capacity of the real economy.China's economy is in the key period of transforming its development mode,optimizing its economic structure and transforming its growth motive force.Inclusive finance,by increasing the financial availability of long tail groups such as small and micro enterprises,middle-and low-income groups,is conducive to reducing the income gap,reducing the proportion of poor people,promoting the development of small and micro enterprises,industrial upgrading,economic structure optimization,and thus promoting economic growth.P2P lending is regarded as the latest product of the combination of financial services and information technology,and a new financial paradigm in the postfinancial crisis era.It is helpful to meet the credit demand of the long tail groups such as small and micro enterprises and private sectors,and is an important supplier of inclusive finance.The reason for the emergence of P2 P lending lies not only in the improvement of the information process,but also in the fact that P2 P lending can accurately meet the financing needs of the long tail group.As an important components of Internet finance,P2 P lending has been expanding rapidly since it was introduced into China.However,the risks of P2 P lending cannot be ignored.Platform self-financing,escaping with money and violent collection not only may hinder the development of P2 P lending,but also may lead to the occurrence of systemic financial risk.Previous research on P2 P lending mainly focuses on the micro level,from the borrower characteristics,order characteristics,herd effect and social network relations and other aspects of research.Few scholars have studied P2 P lending from the perspective of monetary policy,especially the lack of analysis of monetary policy regulation mechanism and volatility spillover mechanism for macro-interest rate of P2 P lending,as well as the lack of analysis of the success rate,financing cost and repayment default of monetary policy on micro-individual borrowers in the P2 P lending market.There is also lacking of analysis of how the difference in financial informatization affects the regulation effect of monetary policy on P2 P lending financing.Therefore,this article tries to explores the guiding mechanism of monetary policy to P2 P lending rate and the volatility spillover mechanism of monetary policy to P2 P lending rate from the perspective of monetary policy.At the same time,this article analyses the impact of monetary policy on the success rate of financing,financing cost and default rate of repayment of micro-individual borrowers in the P2 P lending market.Finally,from the perspective of P2 P lending's organization structure,this article analyzes how the difference of financial development and informatization affects the regulatory role of monetary policy on the microfinancing of P2 P lending.The contents and conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)In the analysis of the guiding mechanism of monetary policy on P2 P lending interest rate,this article brings monetary policy,P2 P lending and offline private lending into the same framework.First,this article constructs a TVP-VARSV model to analyze the time variability and asymmetry of monetary policy's regulation of interest rates of two types of private lending,as well as the dynamic evolution mechanism between the two types of private lending.Secondly,the vector error correction model(VECM)is constructed to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two private lending markets.The main finding are as follows: First,price-based monetary policy can effectively regulate two types of private lending,and there is an asymmetry in the regulation of the two types of private lending interest rates.That is to say,compared with offline private lending interest rates,P2 P lending interest rates which are more market-oriented and less affected by market segmentation,are more sensitive to the impact of price-based monetary policy.Secondly,compared with price monetary policy,quantitative monetary policy has a poor and unstable effect on the interest rate of private lending.Third,there is a close connection between the P2 P lending market and the offline private lending market.The impact of one market can quickly lead to the reverse change of interest rates in the other market.Finally,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two types of private lending,among which P2 P lending has the function of interest rate guidance and price discovery for offline private lending.(2)In the analysis of the volatility spillover effect of monetary policy on the interest rate of P2 P lending,this article starts from the perspective of volatility.First,GARCH effect and risk-return of P2 P lending and offline private lending are analyzed through univariate GARCH.Secondly,monetary policy,P2 P lending and offline private lending are integrated into the same framework.The multivariate BEKK-GARCH model is used to investigate the volatility spillover effect and timevarying among the three market.The research finds that: first of all,the interest rate volatility of both types of private lending is affected by their own volatility in the early stage,and compared with offline private lending,P2 P lending market can dissolve the accumulated risks in the early stage more quickly.Secondly,the two types of private lending markets are not mature financial markets,that is,private lending gains are difficult to obtain risk compensation,and only offline private lending markets have asymmetric effects.Third,since 2018,the monetary policy has had good regulatory and guiding effects on both types of private lending.Meanwhile,the spillover effect of the two types of private lending on monetary policy also exists in most time periods.Finally,at the early stage of the development of P2 P lending,there was a two-way spillover effect between the two types of private lending.With the introduction of P2 P lending regulation and the positioning of information intermediary,the co-activity of the two types of private lending was weakened.(3)In the analysis of the impact of monetary policy on micro-individual financing of P2 P lending,this article firstly analyzes that P2 P lending can effectively make up for the shortage of formal financial credit caused by tight monetary policies through regulatory arbitrage path and asset price channel,and that P2 P lending is an effective substitute for formal finance.Secondly,monetary policy influences the financing cost of P2 P lending market through bank credit channels and opportunity cost channels.Tightening monetary policy will increase the financing cost of P2 P lending market.Finally,monetary policy,based on risk taking channels and asset price channels,affects the default risk of the P2 P lending market,and tightened monetary policy amplifies the risk of the P2 P lending market.Empirical research finds that: First,when monetary policy is tight,the success rate of borrowers in the P2 P lending market increases,and the P2 P lending market is an effective substitute for the formal financial market.Secondly,tightened monetary policy will significantly increase the financing costs of borrowers in the P2 P lending market;Thirdly,tightened monetary policy will increase the default risk of borrowers in the P2 P lending market and increase the default rate of borrowers.Finally,the spatial and temporal characteristics of borrowers will also significantly change the regulatory effect of monetary policy on the P2 P lending market.(4)In the analysis of difference in financial informatization affects the regulation effect of monetary policy on P2 P lending financing,firstly,based on the dual perspectives of financial development theory and network economics,this article studies the mechanism of financial development and informatization on the success rate and cost of P2 P lending.Secondly,from the perspective of financial development and informatization on the impact of monetary policy,this article analyze the difference of monetary policy on the regulation of P2 P lending under the difference of financial informatization;And it further studies the spatial and temporal differences based on the spatial characteristics formed by China's longterm economic development and the temporal dimension of P2 P lending development.The main findings are: First,financial development has expanded the financing channels and improve stronger bargaining power,reducing the financing success rate and financing cost.Secondly,the intensification of the informatization process profoundly changes the financial organization structure,reduces information asymmetry between financial transactions,increasing the financing success rate and financing cost of P2 P lending.Third,the improvement of the financial development level has increased the substitution effect of traditional financial on the P2 P lending,enhanced liquidity between two markets,improved bargaining power of borrowers,reducing the impact of monetary policy on the financing success rate and financing cost in the P2 P lending.Fourth,the improvement of information level increased the information transparency of borrowers,strengthen the impact of monetary policy on the cost of financing in the P2 P lending.Finally,the spatial and temporal characteristics of borrowers will also significantly change the regulatory effect of financial development and informatization on monetary policy.The possible innovations of this article are mainly reflected in the following five aspects:(1)Previous researches on P2 P lending are mainly based on the micro level.This article analyzes how changes in macro variables such as monetary policy will affect the macro interest rate and micro individual financing of P2 P lending market from the macro perspective.This article helps to clarify the transmission path and spillover effect of monetary policy on P2 P lending interest rate,to deeply analyze the impact of monetary policy on the financing success rate,financing cost and repayment default risk of micro-individuals in P2 P lending market,and to clarify the financial development and informatization progress of regional differentiation and the intrinsic link of P2 P lending.(2)Few scholars have studied monetary policy,P2 P lending and offline private lending under the same framework.This article incorporates monetary policy,P2 P lending and offline private lending into the same framework for analysis,and uses TVP-VAR-SV model to analyze the time-varying and asymmetric impact of pricebased monetary policy and quantitative monetary policy on private lending.At the same time,it compares the regulatory effects of two monetary policies on the interest rate of private lending.Through the analysis of impulse response between P2 P lending and offline private lending,this article not only finds that there is a close linkage between P2 P lending and offline private lending,but also finds that P2 P lending is competitive with offline private lending.Meanwhile,VECM model of P2 P lending and offline private lending is constructed.It is found that there is a longterm equilibrium relationship between P2 P lending and offline private lending.At the same time,P2 P lending interest rate,which is more market-oriented and less affected by market segmentation,plays a guiding role in offline private lending interest rate.(3)Previous studies only discussed the volatility spillover effect of monetary policy on P2 P lending.Due to the interaction and competition between P2 P lending and offline private lending,this article further analyzes the volatility spillover effect among monetary policy,P2 P lending and offline private lending under the same framework.Through univariate GARCH effect,this article deeply analyzes the GARCH effect,the relationship between risk and return and asymmetric effect of offline private lending.Meanwhile,according to the development background of monetary policy,P2 P lending and offline private lending,this article divides the whole period into three intervals.By analyzing the time variability of the volatility spillover effect among the three market,it further strengthens the internal logic and time variability of the three market,and helps to prevent the risk contagion among the markets.(4)Few scholars have analyzed how monetary policy affects the financing of micro individuals in the P2 P lending market.This article may provide a beneficial supplement.This article combines macro data of monetary policy with micro data of P2 P lending market to explore the impact of monetary policy on micro individual financing of P2 P lending market from a macro perspective.Meanwhile,from the perspective of default risk,this article finds that the change of monetary policy has a significant impact on the repayment default rate of the P2 P lending market,providing a theoretical basis for the calculation of the risk of monetary policy adjustment to bring P2 P lending into a unified framework.The research also found that the regulation of monetary policy on the P2 P lending market would be affected by the spatial and temporal characteristics of borrowers(5)Few scholars analyzed how the differences between financial development and informatization would affect the regulatory effect of financial development and informatization on monetary policy from the perspective of financial development and information technology.Through literature review and empirical research,this article thoroughly examines the mechanism of financial development on monetary policy.At the same time,based on the perspective of network economics,this article selects a number of information data and uses the entropy method to construct information indicators.Further,this article explores the influence of informatization process on monetary policy.Further,considering the unbalanced regional economic development in China and the time dimension of P2 P lending development,this article further analyses the impact of financial development and informatization process on the regulatory effect of monetary policy. |
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