| Structural monetary policy is the latest practice of the People’s Bank of China(PBC)in the field of monetary policy in recent years.It is also an important part of building a modern central bank system and improving the framework of modern monetary policy.With China’s economic development gradually entering the Economic New Normal,the joint action of internal and external factors has exacerbated many structural problems in the economic and financial fields.In the process of economy turning to high-quality development stage,we must further change the development mode,optimize the economic structure and switch the motive force of growth,which puts forward higher requirements for macroeconomic regulation and control,especially monetary policy.However,if we want to give further play to the role of monetary policy and achieve the goal of macro-control,we still face the obstruction of policy transmission mechanism,insufficient channels for the delivery of basic money,limited space for the implementation of interest rate policy,underdeveloped financial system,imbalance between credit supply and the demand of real economy businesses,high asset prices and leverage ratio of the whole society,the coexistence of structural inflation and systemic financial risks.These difficulties include not only the problems of the monetary policy system itself,but also the practical difficulties brought by the complex economic environment,together with the new challenges brought by economic restructuring and deepening reform.These three interrelated sets of problems could promote each other,but fundamentally,all of them are kinds of structural contradictions expressed in different objects,different levels,different aspects.In such background,the PBC designed and implemented a series of structural monetary policy tools successively,such as targeted RRR reduction,Standing Lending Facility(SLF)and Mediumterm Lending Facility(MLF).Its wide application is closely related to the increasingly prominent structural contradictions.Various policy tools are intended to alleviate one or more of the abovementioned structural problems,with relatively clear orientation and pertinence,to create a good financial environment for deepening structural reform of the supply front,and to form a strong support for economic restructuring and high-quality development.The 14 th five-year-plan proposes to innovate structural policy tools and guide financial institutions to increase support for key areas and weak nodes of Chinese economy.Therefore,the analysis of structural monetary policy not only has certain academic value,but also has important practical significance.However,for such new monetary policy tools that are constantly exploring in practice and are still in the process of exploration,the concept definition in the relevant literature is relatively vague,and there are few studies to systematically explain them from a theoretical perspective.The extent to which monetary policy should undertake the function of structural regulation and control has not reached a consensus in the theoretical circle.In fact,China’s practice of structural monetary policy in recent years is not only different from our traditional monetary policy in the past,but also different from the unconventional monetary policy of western developed economies.In addition,because China’s monetary policy has always focus on economic restructuring,the concept and connotation of structural monetary policy has been varying along with the changes of background and period.In view of this,this paper follows the research context of “realistic background and practical problems → theoretical connotation and research review → policy status and feature description→ mechanism analysis and model construction → policy effect and empirical test → research conclusions and policy suggestions",and closely along the main line of deepening the structural reform of the supply front.The research methods,research contents and main conclusions of each part of this paper are as follows:Firstly,on the basis of a brief review of the development process of monetary policy and the reality of China,it introduces the background and research significance of the research,then expounds the research ideas and framework of this paper,and summarizes the research methods and potential innovations of this paper.Secondly,it discriminates and distinguishes the two concepts of the structural effect of aggregate monetary policy and the structural regulation of monetary policy,and then compares innovative structural monetary policy and traditional structural monetary policy,together with western unconventional monetary policy and China’s innovative structural monetary policy,so as to further explain the connotation of structural monetary policy.The research shows that China’s structural monetary policy is not only an important measure to make up for the limitations of aggregate monetary policy,but also the practical needs of economic restructuring and high-quality development.It not only conforms to the international exploration trend of innovative development of monetary policy,but also the inevitable requirement of the construction of modern monetary policy and financial system.In the future,the structural monetary policy should always focus on coordinating with structural reform of the supply front,and play a positive role in improving the money supply regulation mechanism,promoting financial support to real economy businesses more effectively,and guiding to improve the system of modern financial institutions.In the future,China’s structural monetary policy needs to be further improved along the main line of deepening structural reform of the supply front,and obey following principles: structural control submitting to quantity control,vertical regulation driving horizontal regulation,promoting financial reform,adhering to the market orientation,and improving the monetary policy system reform.Thirdly,through the establishment of a multi-sectoral heterogeneous NK-DSGE,we model the rules of three types of structural monetary policy tools,such as directional lending facilities,directional refinancing and directional RRR reduction,and use numerical simulation and impulse response to investigate the action mechanism of structural monetary policy and the coordination between structural monetary policy rules and aggregate monetary policy rules under different circumstances.The results show that:(1)The three structural monetary policy tools all have a positive impact on the credit structure of commercial banks,but the stimulating effect on the output structure,especially on the output of small and medium-sized enterprises,is relatively small.(2)The effects of quantitative regulation rules of the three types of structural monetary policy tools are similar,while the effects of price regulation rules are different.(3)Targeted refinancing and targeted RRR reduction are mainly quantitative regulation,while targeted lending facility tool has the characteristics of both quantitative and price regulation.At the same time,it has comparative advantages in policy loss,economy distortion and liquidity risk.(4)There is some policy interference between the three types of structural monetary policy tools and the aggregate monetary policy.The coordination with the aggregate monetary policy needs to be fully considered in the policy design.Fourthly,using principal component analysis method to obtain the economic high-quality development index,together with TVP-FAVAR model,it analyzes the time-varying characteristics and policy effects of the impact of structural monetary policy on economic high-quality development,as well as the action mechanism and optimization path of structural monetary policy,The research shows that:(1)China’s structural monetary policy in recent years is affected by both its own development and external economic environment,and its structural change can be roughly divided into five stages,mainly along the following lines: “broaden the channels of basic money supply → supplement the lack of liquidity → improve PBC’s liquidity regulation mechanism and unblock the policy transmission channels → promote the transformation and upgrading of economic structure”.It is quite different from the traditional aggregate monetary policy in I policy objectives,policy characteristics and policy effects.(2)The impact of structural monetary policy impact on high-quality economic development is mainly reflected in the medium and long term,which is also different from the traditional monetary policy,which mainly focuses on short-term regulation.(3)Structural monetary policy affects the high-quality economic development level through interest rate and credit channels.Compared with aggregate monetary policy,it is more market-oriented and has the characteristics of price regulation.By enhancing interest rate signal function and optimizing the credit structure,it has created a good financial environment for the Structural Reform of the Supply Front and high-quality economic development.(4)Over time,the supporting effect of structural monetary policy on high-quality development has declined.The overall effectiveness of monetary policy has decreased,and the difficulty of structural reform has increased.However,the policy effect of structural monetary policy has begun to stabilize,which shows that PBC’s use of structural monetary policy tools is becoming more and more mature.Fifthly,it measures the cost efficiency of commercial banks by consistent estimation fixed effect panel SFA method,and the risk status of commercial banks by Z-score,based on the annual panel data of 109 commercial banks from 2014 to 2019.Further,it investigates the role of lending facilities represented by MLF on the efficiency and risk of commercial banks.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The quantity index and price index of lending facility tools can significantly improve the cost efficiency of commercial banks,which shows that lending facilities can not only benefit commercial banks by providing additional liquidity,but also play an important role as price benchmark and policy signal.Through the balance sheet of commercial banks,these policy rools can improve the operation of commercial banks and reduce the cost of capital use.(2)The policy effect of lending facility tools shows heterogeneity due to the characteristics of commercial banks.The functional positioning and transaction requirements of urban commercial banks and lending facilities are the most matched,so their cost efficiency is most significantly affected by lending facilities.(3)Although lending facility tools can improve the liquidity cost and liquidity accessibility of commercial banks,they can not further promote commercial banks to increase credit to the real economy businesses.The financing dilemma of enterprises can not be solved through lending facilities.This shows that the effect of lending facility tools at present are more reflected in liquidity risk management,base currency supply,price benchmark,etc.,but there are still drawbacks on functions like directional or direct financial suuport.(4)Lending facility tools can affect the risk management ability of commercial banks through two channels: liquidity supplement function and regulatory promotion function,and the impact channels and policy effects for different types of banks also show heterogeneity.Finally,it researches on the effectiveness of structural monetary policy on small,medium and micro-sized enterprises via Mixed-frequency VAR,and does further analysis via Mixed-frequency Granger causality test.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Directional credit support can significantly improve the operating conditions and private financing costs of small,medium and micro-sized enterprises,and has a strong inclusive effect.From the perspective of influence channels,targeted credit support has a similar effect to fiscal policy.By alleviating the financing constraints and improving the development level of small,medium-sized and micro enterprises,and promoting the recovery and improvement of economic fundamentals,it indirectly leads to the decline of private lending interest rate,rather than reducing private lending interest rate by increasing credit supply.(2)Lending facility tools can promote the inclination of credit resources to small,medium and micro-sized enterprises,and then improve their business conditions.However,at present,their supporting role for the business conditions of small,medium and micro-sized enterprises and private financing costs is relatively limited.Relying solely on lending facility tools can not meet the financing needs of the majority of small,medium and micro-sized enterprises.(3)The development of small,medium and micro-sized enterprises is highly related to the macroeconomic situation,and is very sensitive to changes in the macroeconomic environment.Whether the impact of lending facility or targeted credit support tools is far lower than that of changes in the macroeconomic environment,which reflects the limitations of monetary policy in supporting the development of small,medium and micro-sized enterprises.At the same time,due to the problem of imbalance financial resourse distribution,the counter cyclical regulation of the aggregate monetary policy may even push up the cost of private lending.This implies that the additional issuance of currency pushs up the price of financial assets and squeezes out the lending of small,medium and micro-sized enterprises.Structural monetary policy is not only a necessary supplement to the aggregate monetary policy,but also an important part of perfecting the modern financial system and constructing the modern central bank system.Combined with a variety of theoretical and empirical methods,this paper analyzes the mechanism of various structural monetary policy tools,and investigates their policy effects.On the basis of summarizing and summarizing the characteristics of structural monetary policy,this paper verifies the effectiveness of structural monetary policy,and points out the limitations and deficiencies of various structural monetary policy tools.This paper holds that although there are still various deficiencies in the structural monetary policy at this stage,structural monetary policy is still of great significance in structural regulation and optimization.On the premise of ensuring the stability of the total currency amount,structural monetary policy plays an important role in guiding financial service entities,enhancing the financial inclusive effect,promoting the transformation of monetary policy framework,and improving the market-oriented regulation mechanism.At the same time,it can also create a good financial environment for further deepening the supply-side structural reform and form a strong support for economic restructuring and high-quality development. |
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