The Influence Mechanism And Economic Consequence Of Macroeconomic Change On Innovation

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up,China's economy has maintained a long-term growth rate of nearly 10%,making China the world's second largest economy.However,affected by the international financial crisis in2008 and the deepening of China's economic reform,China's economy has entered a period of "three periods",namely,the period of changing the growth rate,the period of painful structural adjustment and the period of digestion of early stimulus policies,and China's economy has entered a new normal.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics,China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 11.6% from 2003 to 2007,dropped to 9.7% in 2008,then rose to10.6% in 2010 and dropped to 7.1% in 2017 again.This shows that China's economy Increased volatility has occurred in the past decade.At the same time,in order to ensure steady and rapid economic development,Chinese government has also introduced the corresponding policies,such as "four trillion" economic stimulus plan,"public entrepreneurship,innovation","Made in China 2025","Industry 4.0","Internet +","One Belt and One Road","three to one,one to one supplement " and so on.These policies have brought more uncertainty while stabilizing economic development(Rao Pingui et al.,2017).Then,in the face of external macroeconomic changes,how to adapt to the changes in the external environment through internal adjustment? In particular,for Chinese enterprises that have been accustomed to the extensional development model,how to transform the development model is not only the challenge and problem faced by enterprises under the new normal economy,but also the important content of modern enterprise management and financial theory research.As an innovation activity is different from general investment activities and has the characteristics of long cycle,large investment and uncertain results to improve the long-term competitiveness of enterprises.In addition,the accounting treatment method of expense in the research stage and capitalization after meeting the conditions in the development stage makes it not only a component of cost and expense,but also a reflection of enterprise strategic development.Therefore,innovation activities not only affect the short-term profits of enterprises,but also affect the long-term development ability of enterprises.Therefore,based on China's current economic environment and institutional background,it is of certain practical value to analyze the rules,internal mechanism and economic consequences of the innovation,so as to effectively enhance the innovation ability and improve the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises.The academic research on the influencing factors of innovation has achieved has made great achievements,but there are still some deficiencies in the existing research.First,the existing literature focuses more on the micro level of innovation research(Manso,2011;Li Chuntao and Song Min,2010;Yu Minggui,2016;Shi Xiaojun and Wang Yuran,2017;Zhou Mingshan and Zhang Qianqian,2016;Balsmeier et al.,2017;Zhao Ziye et al.,2018).Although more and more researches have been conducted at the macro level in recent years,most of them focus on the impact of a certain policy or institutional environment on innovation or R&D input,such as industrial policy(Yu Minggui,2016;Li Wenjing and Zheng Manni,2016;Tan Jinsong et al.,2017;Yang Guochao et al.,2017),fiscal policy(Radas & Anic,2013;Zhang Jie et al.,2015;Wang Gang et al.,2017;Guo Wei,2018),financial environment(Hsu et al.,2014;Tang Qingquan and Wu Rong,2015;Zhong Teng and Wang Changyun,2017),etc.These researches less overall investigate the impact of macroeconomic changes on R&D investment.Second,management motivation has less been included in the impact mechanism of macroeconomic changes on R&D investment;R&D is more reflected in the will of the management.What is the motivation for management to innovate when the external macroeconomic environment is changing? And what economic consequences will be generated under different motives? Therefore,this paper attempts to further expand research results on the basis of existing research results,and comprehensively and deeply explore the regulation,mechanism and economic consequences of enterprises innovation in the face of changes in the macroeconomic environment.This paper combines macroeconomic changes with micro-enterprise innovation,and analyzes its internal mechanism and economic consequences of innovation from the two dimensions of macroeconomic development and economic policy uncertainty.And try to uncover the veil of Chinese enterprises' innovation behavior under the macroeconomic changes,in order to provide useful help to standardize the innovation behavior of enterprises and enhance their innovation ability.This paper is divided into seven sections;the specific structure is as follows:The first chapter is an introduction.This part mainly introduces the research background,research significance,research ideas,research methods,research content and framework as well as the marginal contribution of the research.The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review.Firstly,the basic theories related to this study are reviewed,including economic cycle theory,innovation theory and real option theory.Secondly,reviews the literatures on the influence of macroeconomic policies on micro-enterprise behavior and technological innovation,which lays a foundation for the research of this paper.The third chapter analyzes the status quo of macroeconomic changes and innovation.First of all,analyzes domestic and foreign macroeconomic trends in recent years.Secondly,analyzes the changes of domestic and foreign economic policies in recent years.Then,it analyzes R&D investment and innovation in China,and puts forward the possible problems in R&D investment of Chinese enterprises.The fourth chapter is the impact and mechanism of economic development on innovation.Firstly,this chapter studies the impact of economic development on innovation behavior.Secondly,examines the selection effect of economic development situation on the impact of innovation under different property rights and agency level.Then,analyzes and tests the mechanism and possibility of economic growth impact on innovation.Namely,external market mechanism and internal resource allocation mechanism,the path of product market demand,financing cost,financialization extrusion and scale expansion extrusion.Finally,the impact of economic development on innovation sustainability and innovation efficiency tested.And test the marginal effect of economic growth on innovation at a particular quantile with the quantile regression model.The findings are as follows:(1)in general,innovation is characterized by counter-cyclicality,that is to say,the better the economic development situation,the less innovation input and innovation output.(2)The counter-cyclical innovation has a selection effect,which is more prominent in non-state-owned enterprises and lower corporate governance enterprises.(3)The counter-cyclicality of innovation is mainly due to the crowding effect of the degree of financialization and scale expansion in the internal resource allocation mechanism.(4)In the long run,economic growth will help promote the sustainable development of innovation.That is to say,the faster the economic growth,the faster the innovation input and output of enterprises,and the role will be mainly through market mechanisms.(5)The innovation inputoutput ratio of enterprises is not significantly improved by the innovation countercyclicality.And the quantile regression shows that non-invention patents and innovation output shows a tendency to increase with the increase of the quantile.However,the invention patents have an inverted U-shaped trend with the increase of the quantile.Chapter five studies the influence and mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on innovation.In this chapter,management motivation is included into the analysis framework of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation.Firstly,the impact of policy uncertainty on innovation is investigated.Secondly,from the perspective of economic consequences,the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and innovation input-output ratio is tested to confirm the “agent motive” mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on innovation.Then,based on the nature of property rights,it analyzes the selection effect of economic policy uncertainty on innovation impact,and groups agent costs and internal control in corporate governance mechanism to test the internal mechanism of policy uncertainty impact on innovation behavior.Finally,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation sustainability and corporate value is further examined.The findings are as follows:(1)the greater the uncertainty of economic policy,the more innovation input and innovation output,but the innovation output is only reflected in the increase of non-invention patents,which indicates the motivation of enterprises to have strategic innovation.(2)The "promotion" effect of economic policy uncertainty on innovation is based on the "agent motivation" of management,which is characterized by lower innovation input and output rate and enterprise value.(3)In enterprises with high agency cost and low internal control,innovation input and output rate are lower by grouping test.(4)From the perspective of development trend,economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on the sustainable development of innovation.Chapter six studies the economic consequences of macroeconomic changes on innovation.This chapter follows the theoretical logic of Chapters 4 and 5,examines the economic consequences of economic development on innovation from the perspective of government resource allocation,and examines the economic impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation from the perspective of information intermediary analysts.The findings are as follows:(1)the better the economic development situation is,the more innovative enterprises are not supported by government subsidies,and this effect is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises and non-high-tech enterprises.(2)Economic policy uncertainty increases the attention of analysts on innovation behavior,and this effect is more significant in enterprises with high R&D intensity and long innovation duration.The seventh chapter is the conclusion of the whole paper,the relevant policy suggestions and the shortcomings of the research.The contributions and innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,expands the impact of macroeconomics on micro-enterprise behavior.This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic environmental changes on innovation from the two dimensions of macroeconomic changes,namely economic development and economic policy uncertainty.It compensates for the lack of research on the impact of innovation on existing research only from a specific macroeconomic factor(such as industrial policy,monetary policy,tax policy,etc.).Second,deepen the research on the influence mechanism and action path of macro economy on micro enterprise behavior.This article analyzes the impact mechanism and path of economic development situation and economic policy uncertainty on innovation from the perspective of market mechanism,management motivation,government functions and information intermediaries.And the shortcomings of insufficiently clear path analysis are made up for the existing mechanism of macroeconomic factors affecting enterprise innovation,and the research on the mechanism and path of macroeconomic impact on corporate innovation decision-making behavior are further deepened.Thirdly,analyz the marginal effect of economic development on corporate innovation.In order to further analyze the marginal effects of different innovation inputs and outputs,this paper uses the quantile regression method to test the marginal effects of economic development on innovation at specific quantiles,which made up for losing important information and affecting the estimate result by eliminating outliers in the OLS regression.Fourth,play a role of policy inspiration.This paper concludes the core conclusions that innovation has counter-cyclicality and economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation which is based on management agency motivation.The reason of the former conclusion is that enterprises are more shortsighted during the economic boom period,and more capital is allocated to noninnovation areas with small risks and rapid returns,which have a crowding out effect on innovation.The reason of the latter conclusion is that economic policy uncertainty increases the degree of asymmetry of innovation information,which provides more hidden conditions for management to carry out strategic innovation.The conclusions are for the government departments to establish a long-term innovation mechanism during the period of economic development and prosperity,and to provide a reference for avoiding short-sighted behaviors of enterprises.At the same time,the macroeconomic regulation and control departments should see the negative impacts caused by the uncertainty caused by frequent promulgation of economic policies.It is necessary to objectively understand the motivation of enterprise innovation and play an external supervisory role for investors in the face of macroeconomic changes.