| Regional sustainable development has been an important research topic of the geographical circles.Related studies on green development that continues the ideology of sustainable development provide a new research perspective for exploring regional sustainable development especially the coupling mechanism of the human-nature system at both theoretical and methodological levels.The ultimate target is to achieve symbiotic development of three major systems:economy,society and environment.Therefore,timely and objective researches on green development in typical regions are of strong theoretical and practical significance.It will help gain a profound knowledge of the core characteristics of green development and space-time evolvement patterns in typical regions.Moreover,it will offer a reference for mitigating the conflicts between economic development and resources and as well as the environment,and seeking paths of optimization under the context of green development.Old industrial bases(OIBs)are special regional types formed during the industrialization of the world,demonstrating unique patterns of development and evolvement.Currently,OIBs are facing an array of economic,social and environmental issues which are far more complex and formidable than those of other regions.Meanwhile,the sustainable development of OIBs is a research hotspot Northeast China is the largest and most typical OIB of China which has a number of important basic and strategic industries that are vital to the lifeblood of the national economy.Due to the economic development mode with long-term dependence on natural resources,the Northeast China OIB is increasingly restrained by resources and environments.Accordingly,it's imperative to build a new model to guide reasonable allocation of production factors.The proposal of the green development concept provided a new perspective for thought on the transformation of economic development mode in the entire region.In the new era,how to capitalize on the current development opportunities,alleviate human-nature conflicts,improve regional green competitiveness and accomplish revitalization in the new era is a significant and pressing issue that the Northeast China OIB should tackleUnder such background,this paper,with 34 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China OIB as its research objects,adopted the classical geographical approach of"process-pattern-mechanism" to conduct related studies at both theoretical and empirical levels based on green development and its theories.While deeply analyzing the evolution of the regional development in Northeast China OIB,it comprehensively utilized such methods as synthetical index method and data envelopment analysis to explore the space-time evolvement characteristics of the green development of Northeast China OIB from the perspectives of green development level(GDL)and green development efficiency(GDE).Furthermore,it revealed the driving mechanism of green development,and then make a recommendation for government to optimize and increase the green development of Northeast China OIB.The main research contents are described as follows:Part one introduces the theoretical basis for green development studies in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2.This part was unfolded in two aspects.First,discuss the purpose and significance of green development in Northeast China OIB,systematically outlined the progress of green development research from the perspective of geography based on Web of Science database,CNKI database,and some books and magazines.We extracted six themes,that is,the influencing factors of green development,assessment methods,spatial and temporal characteristics of green development,green development and industrial transformation,green transformation of resource-based cities,and green development institutions and recommendations.Second,it elaborated on related concepts such as OIB,green development,green development level and green development efficiency.On this basis,it reviewed such basic theories as human-nature relation theory,sustainable development theory,material metabolism theory,Environment Kuznets Curve theory and path dependence theory,and formed a theoretical analytical of OIB green development in five aspects:the core characteristics of green development,the relationship between green development and material metabolism,the evaluation of green development,the driving mechanism of green development,and optimization strategy.Then specified a series of basic issues such as the connotations and basic features of green development.Part two is about the early-stage preparations analysis of this paper,presented in Chapter 3.First,this part sorted out in detail the evolution course of regional development concept in Northeast China OIB after the founding of new China and summarized the ideological characteristics at different stages.Second,it analyzed the evolution of industrial structures in Northeast China OIB under the regional development concept of different stages.Third,it used MFA to conduct a quantitative measure analysis on the material metabolism conditions in Northeast China OIB since the implementation of the revitalization strategy.This provided a research basis for subsequent evaluation of the GDL of Northeast China OIB,and the proposal of the evolution mechanism and optimization countermeasuresPart three constitutes the major empirical analysis section of the paper,which is Chapter 4 and Chapter 5.Chapter 4 portrayed the space-time evolvement characteristics of the green development of Northeast China OIB since the revitalization strategy from different perspectives of GDL and GDE.On the one hand,it constructed a comprehensive index system on the basis of OIB core characteristics,and obtained scores for GDL in Northeast China OIB by means of calculation.On the other hand,based on the connotation of GDE,it analyzed the GDE in Northeast China OIB from static and dynamic perspectives,using a data envelopment analysis model Chapter 5 analyzed the driving mechanism for the evolution of the green development in the Northeast China OIB from qualitative and quantitative anglesPart four include Chapter 6 and Chapter 7,which presents the recommendation and conclusions.This part predicted the future GDL and differences firstly based on the neural network model and R/S model,and then laid out the suggestions on the green development optimization in OIB s.In the end,it concluded and summarized the main research conclusions of this paper,pointed out the shortcoming of the research and the future research directionThis paper obtained the following conclusions from its research1.Through the comparison between the traditional development mode and the green development mode in OIB,it is not difficult to find OIB would have significant changes in driving force and development objective.Efficient resources,green industry,high quality growth,effective governance and green residence environment constitute the core characteristics of green development in OIB.In the context of natural capital becomes increasingly scarce,green development in OIB is highly consistent with the material metabolism,material metabolism could be used as an important index to reflect Human-land relationships.In addition,constructed the green development discrimination model from the perspective of factors and efficiency,the evaluation results were more objective.According to the basic properties of influencing factors,the green development evolution mechanism could be summarized as three aspects:endogenous driving force,external boost,guidance and regulation.The three factors also formed OIB's different development paths in various combinations2.The regional development concept of Northeast China OIB was formed and developed based on the reflections of the development pattern under such temporal settings.The cognition of development philosophy in Northeast China OIB underwent four stages:economic development-centered development strategy,the rise of environmental protection and sustainable development,construction of ecological province and circular economy,and green development on the station of ecological civilization,which was a gradual process from shallow to deep.Based on this background,industrial restructuring is becoming the main topic of regional development.Gradually,the region eliminated the means of production that was paid for with sacrifice of environment and resource consumption.The MFA analysis showed that the economic development of Northeast China OIB is still highly dependent on material.DMI mainly consists of biological material and fossil fuels,and solid waste is the main part of DPO.Second,DMI and DPO are at different evolutionary stage.The influence of DMI is declining in relation to the environmental total impacts,but the relationship was not stable.And DPO is in the stage between the peak of output per unit of GDP and the peak of output per capita.Third,economic scale effect contributes greatly to the growth of DMI and DPO.Population size has a positive impact on the growth of DMI and DPO at the beginning but turns to negative impact later on.While technology progress makes great contribution to the DMI and DPO reduction,cleaner production effect does not function properly to restrain the growth of DPO3.We established a comprehensive index system to analyze the GDL from factor perspective.The indexes of green development elements in Northeast China OIB took on a trend of wavelike rise but the growth rate was low from 2006 to 2017.The industrial transformation element served as the leading support for the green development of Northeast China OIB.The space-time differential characteristics of the green development elements and sub-systems were obvious.The green space pattern centering on four major cities became increasingly apparent.The results of Markov Chain showed that it's largely difficult for different types of cities to achieve leapfrog development with green development.The differences of GDL were being reduced between cities.Inter-provincial differences and internal differences of non-resource-based cities were main causes for the green development gap.We calculated GDE in Northeast China OIB from the perspective of the static and dynamic state by using SBM-Undesirable model and Malmquist-Luenberger model Regards to green development static efficiency,Northeast China OIB were relatively inefficient,the number of cities which had optimal efficiency had declined.It also with distinct inter-city differences,high efficiency area tended to converge in the intersection of Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces.Regards to green development dynamic efficiency,TFPC maintained stable growth after 2014,PTEC and TC were the major drivers,most of the cities were positive growth.It also showed different spatial distribution compared with static efficiency,cities which located in Liaoning provinces were high value region.Generally,the four major cities are the core of green development in whole regions,presented an agglomeration form in spatial pattern,and the developing prospect of exhausted resource-based cities was gloomy4.Based on the factor analysis of the obstacle degree model and Tobit regression model,we detected influencing factors of green development in Northeast China OIB As shown in the analysis of driving factors,the proportion of environmental protection expenditure in GDP,per capita GDP,the ratio of technology expenditure to GDP,government financial self-sufficiency rate,and industrial structure optimization were the main obstruction factors affecting the enhancement of GDL in Northeast China OIB.Economic growth and technological development significantly promoted higher GDE of Northeast China OIB.Industrial structure,government regulation and mandatory environmental regulation obviously impeded the growth of GDE.Finally,we summarized the green development driving mechanism in Northeast China OIB by three aspects,endogenous power,external boost and guidance and regulation.The endogenous power included area conditions,resource endowment,path dependence The external boost was composed of economic growth,industrial upgrading and technological advancements.Furthermore,the guidance and regulation can be divided into macroscopic policy and environmental regulation5.The prediction results of the neural network showed that the GDL of Northeast China OIB would achieve a rapid growth after 2020 during 2018 to 2023.For the foreseeable future,the GDL in Northeast China OIB would have significant increase in the end of“14th Five-Year Plan" compared with the period of“13th Five-Year Plan".And in the meantime,the GDL difference between all cities would gradually narrow over the next 12 years,according to the Hurst exponentConcerning the aforementioned research conclusions,this paper proposed countermeasures and suggestions in four aspects,including green industrial transformation and spatial layout optimization,stimulate endogenous driving force,increasing the carrying capacity of resources and environment,system optimization and reform. |
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