Research On The Influence Of R&D Subsidies On The Export Development Of Chinese High-Tech Products Under The Trade Policy Uncertainty

Government R&D subsidies are of great significance to promote the development of high-tech industries.Scientific and effective R&D subsidies enhance high-tech enterprises’ independent innovation capabilities and industry growth by overcoming market externalities,coordinating innovation behaviors of enterprise,cultivating and giving full play to the advantages of economies of scale.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the strategic goals of accelerating the construction of an innovative country and promoting the construction of a strong trader power.What is the practical effect of our government R&D subsidy policy on enhancing the innovation ability of high-tech enterprises and promoting the trade development of high-tech industry? This is an issue that needs to be studied seriously.In addition,under the current intensification of international trade protectionism,especially under the situation of escalating trade frictions between China and the United States,the uncertainty of trade policy has been greatly strengthened.How will the trade policy uncertainty affect the implementation effect of Chinese R&D subsidy policy? What are the interaction and influence mechanism among the trade policy uncertainty,R&D subsidy policy and export development of high-tech products? Under the open economy condition,how should China improve and make good use of the government R&D subsidy policies further,overcome the effect of trade policy uncertainty,and promote high-quality development of export? Strengthening research on these issues has important theoretical and practical significance for implementing the new development concept,accelerating the cultivation of Chinese new advantages in international economic cooperation and competition,and then advancing the construction of a world-leading science and technology power.Based on the framework of heterogeneous-firm trade theory,this paper explores the impact of government R&D subsidies on the export development of Chinese high-tech products under the trade policy uncertainty,and analyzes the influence mechanism of government R&D subsidies on the export volume,varieties,price margins and export quality of high-tech products under the uncertainty of trade policies.Establish a two-way fixed-effects model to test the impact of R&D subsidies,trade policy uncertainty,and the interaction between the two on the export development of Chinese high-tech products.The propensity score matching method and the double difference method were used to test the causal effects of R&D subsidies,trade policy uncertainty,and export development,and further dynamic panel regression and instrumental variable methods were used to solve the endogenous problems of the model.R&D subsidies have a positive correlation with the export development of high-tech products.Specifically,R&D subsidies have increased the quantity,varieties and quality of exports,and reduced export prices.With the increasing of trade policy uncertainty,R&D subsidies play a more important role in promoting the export development of Chinese high-tech products.Specifically,R&D subsidies promote the quantity,varieties and quality of exports,and inhibit the growth of export prices.The paper is divided into seven chapters:The first chapter is the introduction,which introduces the research background,research purposes and significance,research methods.From the uncertainty of trade policy and the impact of R&D subsidies on export development,this paper reviews the relevant literature,and then expounds the innovation and shortcomings of the research.Chapter 2 is an analysis of basic theories related to R&D subsidies,trade policy uncertainty and exports.First of all,under the theory of real options and growth options,this paper analyzes how trade policy uncertainty affects exports.Secondly,the theoretical basis of the implementation of the subsidies is explained by the theory of market failure and strategic trade policy,and the problems existing in the implementation of the subsidies are analyzed by the theory of rent-seeking and the theory of information asymmetry.Chapter 3 describes the characteristics of trade policy uncertainty,government R&D subsidies and the export of high-tech products.First of all,based on the reality of frequent changes in trade policies,this paper analyzes the development trend of international trade policy uncertainty.Secondly,this paper introduces the international R&D policy,and systematically combs the basic situation of China’s R&D subsidy policy for high-tech products.Finally,this paper introduces the situation of Chinese high-tech products from the aspects of export scale,export market distribution,export quality and export growth margin.Chapter 4 is mechanism analysis of how trade policy uncertainty and R&D subsidies affect exports.Firstly,it analyzes the mechanism of R&D subsidies influencing exports by building theoretical model.R&D subsidies can reduce R&D cost and increase R&D investment to encourage innovation of enterprises,thus reducing export price margin and promoting export extensive margin,quantity margin and quality level.Secondly,it analyzes the impact of trade policy uncertainty on export through the heterogeneous-firm theory.Enterprises need to pay a high fixed cost for export,which can only be borne by enterprises with high production efficiency who earn enough profits.The increase of trade policy uncertainty will increase sunk cost,increase waiting value of investment,and decrease the enthusiasm of enterprises for export and investment.R&D subsidies can increase R&D investment,reduce the risk of R&D investment,and improve the innovation ability of enterprises,which is conducive to help enterprises resist the risk brought by uncertainty,thus weakening the inhibitory effect of trade policy uncertainty on export development.Chapter 5 examines the impact of R&D subsidies on Chinese export of high-tech products under the trade policy uncertainty at the national level.In this part,the trade data of Chinese exports of SITC Rev.3 of high-tech products to 31 countries(regions)from 2003 to 2016 are used to verify the effects of R&D subsidies,trade policy uncertainty and their interaction on the export extensive margin,quantity margin,price margin and export quality of high-tech products on the basis of controlling the fixed effects of countries and years.The research shows that the R&D subsidies play a significant role in promoting the export market share of Chinese high-tech products as a whole.Specifically,R&D subsidies have promoted the variety of export,quantity and quality of high-tech products,and reduced export price.By examining the impact of trade policy uncertainty on Chinese export of high-tech products,it is found that trade policy uncertainty has an inhibitory effect on the export market share of high-tech products,which is mainly manifested in the decline of the extensive margin and quantity margin of high-tech products.In the case of increasing trade policy uncertainty,government R&D subsidies can effectively reduce the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on the export market share,export varieties and export quantity of high-tech products.Then,considering the difference of income level of export destinations and the impact of international financial crisis,the paper analyzes the heterogenous impact of trade policy uncertainty and R&D subsidies on export development.It is found that R&D subsidies have a more significant impact on the varieties of high-tech products exported to high-income countries(regions)compared with middle-income countries(regions).The impact of trade policy uncertainty on Chinese exports to high-income countries(regions)is more obvious.R&D subsidies are more conducive to alleviate the adverse impact of trade policy uncertainty on Chinese exports to middle-income countries(regions).Before the international financial crisis,R&D subsidies have no obvious effect on alleviating the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on export development.After the international financial crisis,R&D subsidies can help to alleviate the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on export quantity and quality.Chapter 6 studies the effect of R&D subsidies on the export development of high-tech products under the trade policy uncertainty from the enterprise level.First of all,through the fixed effect model and propensity score matching method,it is proved that the government R&D subsidies play a significant role in promoting the decision-making of high-tech enterprises’ participation in the export market,and can also promote the growth of export extensive margin,but it can inhibit the growth of export intensive margin and the improvement of export product quality.Secondly,through the fixed effect model and multiple difference model,we find that the decline of trade policy uncertainty helps to promote high-tech enterprises to participate in the export market,has a positive impact on the growth of the extensive margin,but has a restraining effect on the export intensive margin and export product quality.Finally,considering R&D subsidies and trade policy uncertainty,it is found that,with the decrease of trade policy uncertainty,government R&D subsidies have weakened the promotion of high-tech enterprises’ participation in export markets and the growth of extensive margin,increased their negative impact on the growth of intensive margin and weakened their nagative impact on the improvement of export product quality.Further examine the heterogeneous effects of industry types,ownership,regions and trade types.The study found that under the circumstance of reduced global trade policy uncertainty,the weakening of government R&D subsidies in promoting enterprises’ participation in the export market is mainly reflected in technological innovation enterprises,local enterprises,enterprises in the eastern region and general trading enterprises;the weakening of the promotion of the extensive margin is mainly reflected in technological innovation enterprises,foreign-funded enterprises,enterprises in the eastern region and general trading enterprises;the increased negative impact on the intensive margin is mainly reflected in technological innovation enterprises,local enterprises,enterprises in central and western regions and general trading enterprises;the weakening of the negative impact on the improvement of export product quality is reflected in technological innovation enterprises,local enterprises,enterprises in the eastern region and processing trade enterprises.Chapter 7 is the summary of the previous research conclusions,and according to the research conclusions,it puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from the aspects of improving R&D subsidy policies,reducing trade policy uncertainty and improving innovation ability.