Research On The Mechanism And Solution Of Energy Consumption Carbon Lock-in China’s Industrial Sector

In the process of industrialization and modernization,energy provides power resources to the industrial sector as a production input element,but it also causes serious environmental problems.China,faced with the double transformation of economic development and energy consumption currently,makes a promise: "China’s energy intensity and carbon intensity will be lower than 2005 levels in 2020 by 40-50%,by2020 the petrochemical energy accounts for a 15% energy",and one of the core element to realize the sustainable development of low-carbon economy is to avoid falling into a "carbon lock-in" trap,which is a urgent problem at this stage.The existing research on "carbon lock-in" in academia is not very rich,and many theoretical and practical problems are still waiting to be solved.This article is based on the existing literature and the reality in China,trying to analyze China’s industrial sector "carbon lock-in" mechanism and the "unlocked" path,providing new perspective theory support and practical guidance for China’s low carbon economy sustainable developmentFirst of all,this paper determines whether there is a "carbon lock-in" in China’s industrial sector.Firstly,based on the development of economic growth theory,it reviews the relevant views on energy consumption,carbon emission and economic growth.Secondly,from the perspective of historical statistics,it compares the historical truth of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the process of industrialization in typical developed countries,and explores the relationship between modern China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions in the process of industrialization;Thirdly,based on the theory of convergence and coupled power system,quantitative analysis is made on whether there is a "carbon lock-in" effect in China’s industrial sector.From the point of convergence,it is found that there exists convergence of carbon productivity in the whole China’s industrial sector.From the index measure of "industrial development-energy consumption-carbon emission" three-element coupling system,it is found that in low carbon productivity industry,there may be the phenomenon of "carbon lock-in".Secondly,this paper tries to explain the mechanism of "carbon lock-in" and the way of "unlock" from economic theories.Based on the theory of evolutionary economics,this paper analyzes the mechanism of "carbon lock-in" and "unlock"approach from the perspective of production and consumption.First of all,from the strong law of large numbers of evolutionary economics,it is found that the energy technology choice is affected by the existing energy technology market share.Due to information asymmetry,fossil fuel technologies continue to dominate in energy markets,and "carbon lock-in" arises;Then,using the evolutionary ecology of species competition model to analyze the energy market competition and the evolution of energy technology breakthrough,we know that if backstop energy technology cannot timely get access to better technology niche conditions,energy technology can’t from gap technology becomes the mainstream technology,which will form a "carbon lockin".Again,from the point of view of consumers’ evolution economics,because of mutual interaction of consumer preferences and the institution,consumer preferences choose petrochemical energy for cost-benefit,thus forms the "carbon lock-in”;In order to better adapt to the external environment,institutional motivation may be a limited rational adjustment for consumers’ preference evolution,which will take a long time.Secondly,based on the theory of "learning by doing",inter-temporal general equilibrium model is built.The energy department is divided into carbon emissions of fossil fuel sector and non-carbon-emission.This paper analyzes the effects of backstop energy department on carbon production department through the "learning by doing"and government intervention policy.The numerical simulation results show that: in the case of other conditions unchanged,in the presence of two energy with high elasticity of substitution,producers will more likely choose fossil fuel,which is easy to cause"carbon lock-in";However,when other conditions remain unchanged,the effect of"carbon lock-in" will be weaker if the learning efficiency of the supporting department is higher.After the government policy intervention,the welfare loss of consumers is obviously lower than in the market.Therefore,it can be said that government policy intervention has certain incentive effect on unlock "carbon lock-in".Again,this paper chooses materials of the empirical level industry and micro level enterprise respectively as the research samples,using econometric method,investigating the effect of the marketing tool and government policy on "carbon lockin" unlock.First,this paper builds 35 industrial sector energy prices index of China’s1998-2015,using the panel switch the method of regression analysis to analyze the impact of higher energy prices on carbon industry,and we find that there is nonlinear relationship between China’s industrial sector energy prices and the carbon emissions.On the whole,energy prices curb carbon emissions in the industry,but the effect of energy price on the carbon emission regulation of the industry is weakening after the energy price exceeds the threshold value.In the group of discussion,it is found that energy price plays a significant role in regulating low carbon productivity.For the high carbon productivity industry,energy prices may lead to the "rebound effect" of energy consumption,which will reduce carbon productivity.But when energy prices exceed the threshold value,energy prices have a more significant effect on curbing carbon emissions.Second,because one of the ways to unlock "carbon lock-in" is to develop a sustainable energy sector,which can be achieved by fostering and developing new energy industries.Therefore,this paper uses the data of China’s renewable energy concept stocks from 2007 to 2016 of the listed enterprises and the data of Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database from 2005 to 2007 to respectively examine the impact of government subsidy policies on the growth of renewable energy enterprises.The results show that,due to the uncertainty and the immaturity of backstop energy technologies development,enterprises need the support of government funds.The government subsidy has positive incentive effect on innovation investment,which is beneficial to the growth of enterprises.Due to the complexity of the renewable energy technology and impossibility to provide the market with high return on investment,so the renewable energy enterprises generally come with the financing constraints,and this kind of financing constraints will weaken the incentive effect of government subsidy to the enterprise.And enterprises may put the subsidy funds for research and development and for improving the productivity into other places,which is not conducive to enterprise long-term development and growth.