A Study On The Impact Of Population And Household Changes On Housing Demand In China

Population and families are the main demand for housing.Understanding the development direction of housing demand based on the current situation,characteristics and changing trend of population and families is of great significance to promote the healthy development of China’s real estate market and the long-term stability of social economy.From the perspective of aging population,fewer children in families and deinstitutionalized marriage,this thesis analyzed the current characteristics and influencing factors of housing demand.A theoretical and empirical model was established to explore the macro-effect and micro-mechanism of population and family changes on housing demand,and the system dynamics simulation was carried out based on the complex system.Firstly,based on the performance of housing demand,this thesis identifies two core housing demand contents,namely,macro housing sales area and micro housing demand characteristics,as well as three key influencing factors,they are population aging,family shortage and marriage de-institutionalization.Then,based on the theory of housing demand,population and family,this thesis analyzes the macro and micro theoretical path of the impact of population and family changes on housing demand,and discusses the impact of three key factors on housing demand.On this basis,the influence of population and family factors on the housing sales area was tested by using macro data and the effects of aging population,family birth and marriage on housing demand,such as housing size,quality,homeownership and multiple homeownership,were examined with micro data.Finally,the causal relationship theory of system dynamics is used to construct the system framework of the impact of population and family changes on housing demand,and the model is tested and simulated.Key finds are as follows.Firstly,the total population of China will increase first and then decrease,the family size will continue to decrease,and the family structure will tend to simplify.Secondly,at the macro level,the increase of the total population,the elderly dependency ratio and the family size increase the housing demand.The birth rate will suppress the housing demand in the short term and promote the housing demand in the long term.However,the child dependency ratio and marriage rate are influenced by time and location,and have different effects on housing demand.Thirdly,at the micro level,living with parents and the proportion of the elderly in the family has a positive effect on housing area and homeownership,but a negative effect on housing quality,and has no significant effect on multiple homeownership.The living intention,living style and living intention satisfaction of the elderly are different.Those elderly who have a large number of children,homeownership and live in rural areas are unable to realize their intention to live in nursing institutions.The larger the number of children,the larger the housing area,the lower the housing quality,the less likely to have homeownership and the more likely it is to own multiple homes.Unmarried families have disadvantages in terms of housing size and housing quality,while widowed families have obvious advantages,and there is no significant difference in different types of marriage between homeownership and multiple homeownership.Fourthly,housing demand is influenced by population,family,social economy and other factors,showing an overall trend of first rising and then falling.Finally,this thesis puts effort to propose effective and targeted policy implications for developing real estate for the elderly,optimizing the housing structure,and developing the housing market,from the perspective of improving population structure,adapting family structure and adjusting housing policy,with the purpose of promoting the healthy development of China’s housing market and social and economic stability.