Research On The Impact Of Family Population Aging On Housing Demand

Since the 1990 s,the problem of aging population in our country has become increasingly prominent,and it is aggravated every year.According to the data of China Statistical Yearbook,the population of the elderly 65 and above in China increased from 88.21 million in 2000 to200.56 million in 2021,accounting for 14.2% of the total population from 7%.The degree has begun to surpass that of many developed countries.Its impact on our daily lives and on the macro economy has been particularly prominent.In recent years,China’s housing price has experienced a general rise led by first-tier cities,followed by other new first-tier and second-tier cities,especially around 2016.After that,the government emphasized "housing,not speculation" and adopted a series of measures to restrict transactions and control the direction of the housing market.In this context,this paper studies the impact of household population aging on household housing demand.The reason to study this issue is that the family is an important sector in the national economy,many decisions are made in the family,and the influence of the family on the whole society and the national economy cannot be underestimated.The population structure has been affected by many aspects,from the family planning policy in the last century to the three-child policy in recent years,the population structure has been changing dynamically.Demographic change has had a huge impact on every aspect of our country’s economy and society,especially the housing market,which continues to be hot.This paper analyzes the micro data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2019,and the results show that the current family population structure in China shows the main characteristics of aging and low birth rate.Through the study of relevant literature,we know that the current scholars’ influencing factors of housing investment choice mainly focus on demographic characteristics,including age,gender,marriage,education level,etc.Background risk factors,such as health risk factors for family members and labor income risk;And other factors,such as residents’ subjective attitudes,social interactions,and macroeconomic factors.In this paper,the age of the household head,the proportion of the elderly in the household and the dependency ratio of the elderly in the household are used as the surrogate variables of the aging of the household population,and the relationship between the age structure of the household population and housing demand is analyzed by logit and tobit.The results show that the explanatory variables measuring the age structure of the household population,the proportion of elderly people in the household and the age of the household head,both have a significant positive impact on household housing investment.In addition,the square term of the proportion of the elderly population and the square term of the age of the household head are added to the model to verify a nonlinear relationship between the age structure of the household population and housing investment.Subsequently,the PSM method is used to alleviate the endogeneity problem,and the sub-sample regression of classification research is carried out,and the robustness test of the regression of explanatory variables is changed,and the conclusions are still valid.At the end of this paper,some suggestions are given based on the conclusions of this paper and the current economic and social situation of China.It is suggested that government departments:(1)Implementing the three-child policy,and consider liberalizing the birth policy in the future.(2)Implementing maternity subsidy policies or individual tax deduction policies.(3)Popularize financial knowledge for the elderly and vigorously develop other financial products.(4)Appropriately postpone the retirement age.(5)At present,we will continue to guard against overheating of the real estate market and be vigilant against insufficient impetus for housing demand in the future.