A Research On American Policy Towards China After The Cold War

After the cold war,the consistent strategic goal of the United States is to maintain its hegemonic status as the only superpower,and always adhere to the standards of ideology,values and political system to measure its own interests.According to its national interests,it has adopted a hedging strategy against China on the basis of dealing with the realistic demands of uncertainty and risk aversion and the need to measure and evaluate risks,costs and benefits.Although Sino-U.S.relations have experienced ups and downs in the past three decades after the cold war,hedging strategy has maintained both conflict and cooperation on the whole.In the 21 st century,with the in-depth development of economic globalization and regional integration,the focus of global economy and strategy has further moved eastward,and new changes have taken place in the international balance of power,increasing the viability and uncertainty of the international environment.The "9·11" attacks have caused new uncertainty to the security situation of the United States and the world,and have had a significant impact on the global strategy and national security judgment of the United States.At the same time,China’s comprehensive national strength and international influence are increasing day by day,showing a good and strong development trend,which lead to the "China’s rise",a product of China’s own economic development and modernization that has objectively impacted the existing international system and challenged the leading position of the United States.In the view of the United States,the global and multi field power changes brought by China’s rise have become an important source of uncertainty in the world situation.Under the background of the intertwined linkage of traditional and non-traditional security challenges and the increasing uncertainty and risk of regional and international security,the United States,based on the consideration of cost-benefit,holds that the cost risk caused by containment or other tough measures against China is great,which may lead to the embarrassing situation that the cost is much higher than the benefit,and that it is feasible and realistic to offset the risks in the fields of economy,finance and non-traditional security through cooperation with China.The Bush Administration formally proposed to implement strategic hedging against China.Since then,the Obama Administration has made the "two-sided bet" hedging strategy of cooperation and prevention the first choice of China strategy.During the Trump period,with the strong rise of China,the proportion of antagonistic tools in China hedging has increased rapidly.In fact,tracing to the source,since the Bush Sr.period after the cold war,in order to deal with the uncertainty of international trends and social development,the United States has tried to "integrate" China into its dominant international political and economic system and offset the potential risks brought by China’s development.The "contact+prevention" policy towards China has created a hedging strategic environment and formed the prototype of hedging strategy.Hedging theory has not been widely used for a long time and has not formed a consensus on theoretical connotation and analytical framework.Based on the existing research,it is proposed that hedging strategy refers to that under the background of deepening economic globalization and regional integration,accelerating changes in the international system and continuous changes in the comprehensive strength comparison of major countries in the world,national actors,from a pragmatic perspective,take their own ability and external situation as a reference in order to deal with uncertainty,avoid or offset risks and pursue the maximization of their own interests,by diversified policy combination adopted by the comprehensive use of cooperative and antagonistic means.With the continuous change of national strength comparison and international situation,the goal of hedging strategy is no longer to simply avoid uncertainty or offset risks,but to put more emphasis on the flexibility and pragmatism of relevant measures,especially the systematic assessment of cost-benefit-risk,that is,the analysis of national strength and comparison relationship,the costs,risks and possible benefits of strategy implementation,so as to formulate different foreign strategies and seek greater strategic space through the comprehensive use of various means.The dual environment structure is the key factor affecting the strength of hedging strategy at two levels.One is the internal environment based on the ranking of national interests and national capacity,and the other is the external environment including the development of globalization,the change of international system structure(mainly the change of relative strength between rising countries and hegemonic countries),threat cognition,etc.The influencing factors at the two levels interact and pull each other,which has become the main variable affecting the combination of hedging strategic tools and the choice of strategic strength.Through the theoretical analysis framework,we can deeply identify the logic behind the formulation and implementation of American China policy at the theoretical level and policy system.In the international environment of epidemic superposition and century change,the trend of international relations is more uncertain and unstable.The Sino-U.S.relations have been more competitive.The Biden government believes that China is a potential competitor of the United States with lasting challenge ability.The United States is affected by factors such as culture and political system,require its foreign policy to be effective in the short term,and the United States will show a strong offensive trend in China policy in the short term and will still rest within the scope of hedging strategy.Under the thinking and framework of hedging strategy,with the comprehensive effects of domestic and foreign environments such as social division and political polarization in the United States,the increasingly close national strength between China and the United States,China’s increasing political confidence and international influence,the different ideologies and political systems of the two countries,and the result is the continuous strengthening of the United States’ awareness of threats from China.The United States has rapidly increased the proportion of a series of confrontational tools such as checks and balances and containment against China in many fields,and its policy towards China has become more and more tough.This can be seen from the attitude and recent policy performance of the Biden government,whose policy choice is based on the cost,benefit and risk assessment.Its motivation to launch a war against China or take tougher and higher cost measures to contain it is insufficient or the gains outweigh the losses.Therefore,the U.S.policy towards China will still be within the scope of hedging in the future.China should adhere to the bottom-line thinking and take flexible responses,preventing major risks between China and the United States through institutional dialogue and cooperation,and seizing the key geostrategic zone around China,actively creating a loose and favorable environment in the surrounding areas,realistically building a partnership network,and promoting the construction of a community of common destiny in the surrounding areas.