Research On Prevention And Control Strategy Of COVID-19 Based On Epidemic Model And Statistical Analysis Method

In human history,the struggle against infectious diseases has never stopped.In the 21 st century,we are constantly facing the threat of new infectious diseases.The outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in December 2019 brought heavy disasters to the people all over the world.How to scientifically control,manage and control the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible is the focus of our attention.The epidemic dynamic model is the mathematical model based on the characteristics of population and disease itself and the law of spread.Through quantitative,qualitative analysis and numerical simulation,it can predict the development and change trend of infectious diseases,and provide guidance for the formulation of the best public health prevention and control strategy.This article aims to solve the problem of prevention and control of covid-19,based on the actual epidemic situation in China,establish the dynamic model and use the statistical analysis method to explore the prevention and control strategy of covid-19,put forward the prevention and control suggestions,and look forward to the world.It mainly focuses on the following four issues:(1)How to set up the mathematical model can better simulate the development law of epidemic situation?(2)What is the actual effect of various prevention and control measures?(3)Which groups are the high risk groups of covid-19 infection? That is,the key prevention and control objects.(4)Facing the current epidemic situation,how to take prevention and control measures?The details are summarized as follows:1.Research on the theoretical knowledge of epidemic dynamics model.We constructed a class of epidemic dynamics model with latent period and asymptomatic patient,and both latent and asymptomatic patient are infectious.At the same time,the diagnosis rate u is introduced and added the diagnosis treatment cabin H;The expression of the basic regeneration number is calculated based on the second generation regeneration matrix method;the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium point of the model are proved by using mathematical knowledge,and the stability of the model equilibrium point is studied by numerical simulation using MATLAB software.2.Study on the law of epidemic transmission in China.According to the real epidemic data of China from January 10 to May 1,2020,we established a multi-stage epidemic dynamics model,namely SEIAHDR model without intervention measures-SEIAQHDR model with tracking and isolation measures-SEIAQHDR model with variable coefficient function.The results of data fitting showed that the predicted results of the model were consistent with the actual data,and the average error was small,which was more in line with the spread law of the epidemic.In particular,we considered the variable coefficient function model that the contact rate,diagnosis rate,isolation rate and cure rate changed with time,and the accuracy is higher(bias =0.76%).At the same time,we analyzed the time distribution,spatial distribution,mortality rate and imported situation of the epidemic,and got the key prevention cities of imported epidemic.Finally,we studied the change of effective regeneration number with time,and performed the sensitivity analysis of control regeneration number under intervention measures,which provided theoretical support for the prevention and control measures of covid-19.3.Evaluation of the actual effect of prevention and control measures.Based on the improved SEIAHDR epidemic model,we studied the results of a series of control measures taken by Chinese government,society and citizens to control the spread of covid-19.The numerical results showed that isolation of infected persons and close contacts,media publicity,improvement of diagnosis rate,disinfection,wearing masks and other measures can effectively reduce the scale of the outbreak,the more stringent the measures are implemented,the better the prevention and control effect.4.Study on high risk population of covid-19 infection.The clinical data of Novel coronavirus pneumonia patients from global were extracted based on data mining technology.Combined with meta-analysis,we calculated infection risk,critical illness risk and death risk of different gender,age group,BMI and other disease groups.Finally,we concluded that men,50-70 years old,obese patients,diabetes patients and hypertension patients are the high-risk group of covid-19 infection.Therefore,these groups should more strictly abide by our prevention and control measures.5.The formulation of comprehensive prevention and control strategy.Based on the analysis results of the previous chapters,we put forward comprehensive prevention and control suggestions and the "general principles","hard and soft measures" and "core of prevention and control".According to the current situation of the epidemic at home and abroad,we believe that the focus of China’s epidemic prevention and control is to prevent the imported patients from abroad,isolation of the infected and close contacts,speeding up the diagnosis rate and wearing masks are still effective prevention and control measures.