| Forest certification is an important change element in the development of international trade of global forest products.This paper investigates and evaluates whether forest certification as the international standard of forestry industry,like other international standards,becomes the trade barriers in international trade of forest products,and hinders the free trade of forest products based on the theoretical basis of New Institutional Economics,Environmental Economics and International Trade.This paper also studies the effect of forest certification on forest international trade from a global perspective,so as to improve the international forest certification system and develop forestry industry.In this paper,the framework of international trade theory of forest certification is constructed,as well as the influence mechanism of forest certification on international trade of forest products is explained by incorporating it into the economic model.Furthermore,from a global perspective,three empirical tests were carried out to analyze the impact of forest certification on forest international trade.Firstly,three forest products trade networks and trade networks with the attribute of forest certification were compared by social network analysis.Secondly,the trade effect of certification between different economies and different products is compared by the extended gravity model so as to find the impact effect of forest certification on trade.Finally,on the basis of quantifying the non-tariff barriers of forest certification,the influence of forest certification on international trade of forest products is simulated and predicted by general equilibrium model.The results show that :(1)forest certification leads to the narrowing of the trade networks of forest products,and forest certification is not conducive to the facilitation of trade networks.However,the trade networks with the attribute of forest certification have expanded.The ranking of the closeness of the trade networks of the three forest products is paper and pulp products,wood products and furniture products.Combined with the development trend of forest certification,the impact of forest certification on trade networks can be summarized into three stages.The first stage is trade paralysis stage,the second stage is the trade stimulus stage,and the third stage is the weakening stage of trade.(2)Forest certification has a significant export competitive effect on international trade of forest products.Forest certification has the trade barrier effect,and it is the non-tariff trade barrier,which hinders liberalization of forest products trade.Forest certification also has a common language effect.(3)The effect of forest certification on international trade of forest products is asymmetric.Specifically,the effect of forest certification on export competitiveness of developing countries is greater than that of developed countries.In the process of trade with developed countries,the forest certification has a trade barrier effect,and the trade barrier effect is more obvious for the forest certification of developing countries.The common language effect of forest certification is more obvious in the trade process between developed and developing countries.The export competition effect of forest certification of wood products is greater than that of furniture products,and forest certification has the trade barrier effect on furniture products,paper and pulp products.Forest certification has a common language effect in furniture products,but not in wood products,paper and pulp products.(4)Because of the trade barrier effect of forest certification,the price of world forest products will have an upward trend,and the biggest change is in log products,followed by paper and pulp products.The output and trade of three forest products in China will decrease,while output and trade of three forest products in North American countries will increase.North American countries will be the largest beneficiaries of trade creation and trade diversion.North America countries will have the biggest increase in welfare,followed by Southeast and South Asian countries.China’s welfare will increase while European countries’ welfare will decrease.This paper provides a unified universal scientific regular and theoretical core for the study of the impact of forest certification on the international trade of forest products from a global perspective.This study extends and enriches the contents of the theories of international trade,standard economics and international trade in forest products,and innovates the theories of forest certification.The conclusions of this paper provide theoretical support and countermeasures for deepening the reform of forest certification system and establishing a market-oriented development system for forest certification,which is of great significance to the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China. |
