Research On The Influence Of High-speed Railway On The Spatial Pattern Of Regional Economy In China

In the past 20 years,China’s High-Speed Railway construction has made remarkable achievements.By the end of 2020,China’s railways cover approximately90% of cities with a population of more than 200,000.The total mileage of China’s railways is 146,000 kilometers,of which the total mileage of High-Speed Railways is39,000 kilometers.The line length and technology of China’s High-Speed Railway rank first in the world.The High-Speed Railway has broken the regional spatial pattern of China,reconstructed the economic relationship between cities,promoted the re-allocation of resource elements,and injected new vitality into China’s economic development.With the increasing number of cities opening High-Speed Railway,it has become an important topic to explore the influence of High-Speed Railway on spatial pattern of regional economy in China.This paper briefly summarizes the basic theory of the influence of High-Speed Railway on the spatial pattern of regional economy,including Transportation Cost,Cumulative Causation Model,Growth Pole,New Economic Geography,Hirschman Polarization Effect and Trickle-down Effect,Spatial Dependence and Spatial Heterogeneity.This paper summarizes and analyzes the impact mechanism of High-Speed Railway on spatial pattern of regional economy,including investment pull effect mechanism,agglomeration effect mechanism,diffusion effect mechanism and corridor effect mechanism.Based on the city panel data,this paper uses empirical analysis and SNA(Social Network Analysis)and other research methods to carry out research from three aspects.First,the impact of High-Speed Railway on regional accessibility and regional economic integration.Second,the impact of High-Speed Railway on regional economic growth and the evolution of regional economic inequality.Third,research on the spillover effects of High-Speed Railway on the regional economy and the impact of High-Speed Railway on changes in regional spatial structure.Among them,regional economic integration and regional economic inequality mainly analyze the impact of High-Speed Railway on the economic spatial pattern of cities along the line.Through the study of spillover effect,this paper further analyzes the impact of cities along the High-Speed Railway on their surrounding areas.China has a vast territory,and the impact of High-Speed Railway on different regions will be different.This paper classifies cities according to different types to explore the heterogeneity of the impact of High-Speed Railway on the economic spatial pattern of different regions.Finally,through the SNA method,this paper classifies the impact of High-Speed Railway on each city,and specifically analyzes the status and role of each city in the High-Speed Railway network.The core content and conclusion of this paper include the following five parts.First,the opening of High-Speed Railway significantly improves the level of regional accessibility and promotes the economic integration of cities along the High-Speed Railway.As an intermediary variable,accessibility plays an important intermediary role in the process of High-Speed Railway affecting regional economic integration.At the same time,High-Speed Railway will have heterogeneous effects on the accessibility and economic integration of different types of regions.Firstly,the weighted average travel time accessibility and economic potential accessibility were calculated based on the opening time of High-Speed Railway in each city,and the accessibility level and changes of each city from 2003 to 2018 were observed.It is found that the opening of High-Speed Railway has significantly improved the accessibility level of each region,showing a significant upward trend after 2008,but there is heterogeneity in the accessibility level of each region.Secondly,based on the panel data from 2003 to 2018,the DID(Differences-in-Differences)model was used for empirical analysis,and the regional effect and time effect were controlled.The core explanatory variable is the policy dummy variable of whether High-Speed Railway is opened or not,and the control variables include urbanization level,government fiscal expenditure,foreign investment,industrial structure,urban infrastructure level,fixed asset investment and wage level.Through the regression analysis,it is concluded that the opening of High-Speed Railway can have a significant and positive impact on the economic integration of cities along the line,and the impact of High-Speed Railway on regional economic integration is heterogeneous.Finally,accessibility is used as an intermediary variable to conduct a mediation effect test,and it is found that accessibility has an indirect effect on regional economic integration,that is,accessibility as an intermediary variable plays an important intermediary role in the process of High-Speed Railway affecting regional economic integration.Second,the opening of High-Speed Railway has significantly promoted the economic growth of cities along the line and widened the economic gap among them.As a mediating variable,labor flow plays an important mediating role in the process of High-Speed Railway affecting regional economic disparity.Meanwhile,High-Speed Railway will have a heterogeneous effect on economic growth and economic disparity of different types of regions.From a theoretical point of view,the higher the degree of economic integration in the region,the faster the economic growth rate,and the more significant the regional economic gap.Firstly,according to the panel data from 2005 to 2018,the DID method was used to compare the data of the experimental group and the control group.The policy dummy variable of whether the High-Speed Railway is opened or not is used as the core explanatory variable,and the urbanization level,government fiscal expenditure,foreign investment,urban infrastructure level,residential population,R&D expenditure and education expenditure are selected as the control variables.Through regression analysis,it is concluded that the opening of High-Speed Railway significantly promotes the economic growth of cities along the route,which means that High-Speed Railway has an important influence on China’s regional economic growth.And this influence has regional heterogeneity.Taking the added value of the secondary industry,the added value of the tertiary industry,and investment in fixed assets as the explained variables,the DID method is used to empirically analyze the impact of High-Speed Railway on the layout of regional economic activities.It is found that the opening of High-Speed Railway significantly promotes the development of the tertiary industry and the increase in the investment in fixed assets,but it has no significant impact on the secondary industry.It validates the investment stimulating effect of High-Speed Railway on regional economic growth,and shows that High-Speed Railway mainly promotes regional economic growth by influencing the tertiary industry in cities along the route.Secondly,based on the panel data from 2005 to 2018,the DID method is used for empirical analysis.The dispersion of the economic growth rate of each city is selected as the explained variable,the policy dummy variable of whether the High-Speed Railway is opened or not as the core explanatory variable,and the urbanization level,government fiscal expenditure,foreign investment,urban infrastructure level and fixed asset investment are selected as the control variables.Through regression analysis,it is concluded that compared with the cities without High-Speed Railway,the economic gap between cities along the High-Speed Railway has been significantly widened,and the degree of influence of the economic gap between different types of cities is heterogeneous.Finally,using labor factor mobility as a mediating variable to test the mediation effect,it is found that the High-Speed Railway mainly affects the labor factor flow and thus widens the economic gap of cities along the High-Speed Railway.Third,the opening of High-Speed Railway has a significant spillover effect on regional economic growth,and there is regional heterogeneity.The above research conclusions mainly focus on the changes of the economic spatial pattern of cities along the High-Speed Railway.Through the research on the spillover effect,we further analyze the impact of cities along the High-Speed Railway on their surrounding areas.If there is spillover effect,the High-Speed Railway will also affect the changes of the economic spatial pattern of the surrounding areas of cities along the High-Speed Railway.Four spatial weight matrices are constructed respectively:adjacent distance spatial weight matrix,time distance spatial weight matrix under ordinary railway connection,time distance spatial weight matrix under High-Speed Railway connection and economic distance spatial weight matrix.Based on the panel data from 2003 to 2018 and spatial weight matrix,this section selects the SEM(Spatial Error Model)for empirical analysis.Take the GDP of each city as the explained variable,labor input and capital input as the explanatory variables,and select urbanization level,government fiscal expenditure,foreign investment,industrial structure,urban infrastructure level,R&D expenditure and education expenditure as control variables.Conclusions are obtained through regression analysis.On the one hand,if the spatial effect factor is not considered,it will lead to overestimation of the impact of capital investment,urbanization level,foreign investment,urban infrastructure level and education level on economic growth.On the other hand,the spatial spillover effect of the time-distance spatial weight matrix of common railway and High-Speed Railway connection is more significant than that of the other two spatial weight matrices,and the spillover effect of High-Speed Railway connection is slightly higher than that of general rail connection.This indicates that the development of transportation infrastructure can significantly enhance the economic spillover effect between cities,and the opening of High-Speed Railway can effectively promote the economic growth of cities along the routes and their surrounding areas.Finally,through the heterogeneity analysis,it is found that there are differences in the spillover effects of High-Speed Railway on the economic growth of different types of cities.Fourth,through the SNA method,the impact of High-Speed Railway on each city is classified according to the agglomeration effect,diffusion effect and corridor effect,and the status and role of each city in the High-Speed Railway network are analyzed in detail.According to the data of inward point centrality,outward point centrality and betweenness centrality change values,the impact effects of High-Speed Railway on the changes of urban economic spatial pattern are sorted out,including agglomeration effect,diffusion effect and corridor effect.First of all,there are 121 cities that produce agglomeration effect,such as Changsha,Yangzhou,Nanjing,Changzhou,Yichang,Yantai,Ningbo,Zhenjiang,Shanghai,Chongqing,Hefei,etc.These cities have gradually developed into regional core cities in the High-Speed Railway network,but we must beware of the siphon effect and avoid economic polarization.Secondly,in the process of analyzing the cities that produce the diffusion effect,while observing the cities that produce the benefit effect,we can see that most cities have both the diffusion effect and the benefit effect.Through visual analysis,we can see how each city influences each other,which is of guiding significance for the future development of each city.Finally,for the 18 cities that have a corridor effect or a filtering effect,they have gradually been marginalized during the development of the High-Speed Railway network.That is,after the opening of the High-Speed Railway,the original regional advantages of some cities will be lost,or more and more marginalized.These cities are Datong,Changzhi,Shuozhou,Luliang,Chifeng,Bayannaoer,Panjin,Daqing,Taizhou,Weihai,Heze,Jiangmen,Wuwei,Zhangye,Jiuquan,Shizuishan,Wuzhong and Karamay.In the future development process,these cities should actively explore urban development opportunities and beware of the filtering effect brought by High-Speed Railway.Fifth,combined with the above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,in the process of exploring the impact of High-Speed Railway on regional economic spatial pattern,it is found that although High-Speed Railway can promote regional economic integration,it also widens the regional economic gap,and labor flow as an intermediary variable plays an important intermediary role in the process of High-Speed Railway affecting regional economic gap.At the same time,although some cities become the core cities of regional economic development in the High-Speed Railway network,they are also prone to siphon effect,which is not conducive to regional economic development.Some cities are gradually marginalized in the High-Speed Railway network,resulting in corridor effect.These problems should be considered in the future development of High-Speed Railway.Therefore,the following policy suggestions are put forward:(1)We will continue to improve the High-Speed Railway network,but we will also make scientific plans in light of urban development and avoid overextending the network.(2)The siphon effect in some core cities of the High-Speed Railway network should be prevented by rational allocation of resources.(3)For cities with marginalized trends,we should actively explore urban development opportunities and transform urban development strategies.(4)Under the background that High-Speed Railway promotes regional economic integration,traditional administrative concepts of various cities should be changed and regional comprehensive governance models should be actively explored.(5)Cities strive to provide more and better job opportunities and avoid brain drain.