Electric Power Market Mechanism And Policies Optimization Model To Promote New Energy Consumption

Faced with the increasingly severe environmental situation and urgent energy transformation needs,the establishment of a clean,efficient and sustainable energy system has become the current trend of energy development.Renewable energy power generation has received extensive attention in many countries around the world.In recent years,China's renewable energy has developed rapidly.However,while the rapid development of renewable energy,the access of power grids and the consumption of electricity have become the main bottleneck for the development of new energy power such as wind power and solar power.Since the development of new energy is highly concentrated in the "Three North" area,the construction of new energy power plants is not synchronized with the construction of power grids,the local load level is low,the power supply is less flexible,and the cross-provincial power market is immature,so the reduce of wind and the solar power is serious.In order to solve the problem of new energy consumption,on October 19,2015,the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Launching a Near-Neighboring Consumption Renewable Energy Pilot",proposing to strengthen power transmission and expand the scope of consumption in areas with renewable energy enrichment.At the same time,carry out the pilot project of local consumption,and work hard to solve the problem of reduce of wind and the solar power,and promoting the sustainable and healthy development of renewable energy.The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have made efforts to promote the high-quality development of clean energy and effectively solve the problem of consumption.In November 2017 and October 2018,respectively,the "Implementation Plan for Solving the Problem of the reduce of Water,Wind and the Solar power" was formulated.The Clean Energy Dissipation Action Plan(201 8-2020)proposes to basically solve the problem of clean energy consumption by 2020.In 2019,State Grid Corporation proposed the development strategy of "three-type and two-network”,promoted the construction of"three-type and two-network",and adhered to the concept of open cooperation and win-win,to support power grid connection and new energy consumption.Affected by traditional power dispatching and trading methods,the models and methods for new energy participation in the market are still immature.The risks of participating in market transactions cannot be effectively evaluated and measured,and these are important ways to promote new energy consumption.At the same time,photovoltaic power,wind power and other new energy power generation technologies and power generation costs have undergone major changes.The new round of power system reform,such as the liberalization of the power-sales market and the open access to the grid,have led to major changes in the power market environment.Therefore,this paper combines the status of new energy consumption and the development trend of power market,and studies the power market trading mechanism and policy optimization to promote new energy consumption.The main research contents of the thesis are concentrated in the following aspects:(1)Based on the development trend of new energy in China,analyze the current situation of China's new energy consumption,based on this,clarify the key influencing factors that affect China's new energy consumption,build a new energy consumption analysis model based on system dynamics,To lay a good foundation for the design of power trading mechanism and policy optimization to promote the absorption of new energy,and based on the results of impact analysis,to build a new energy consumption power market environment.(2)Sort out the relationship between various types of power markets,analyze the impact of power system reform on the main players and modes of power market transactions,and analyze and design the power market trading modes under the new situation from the perspective of further promoting new energy consumption,including electricity trading,Analysis and construction of transaction markets such as ancillary service transactions,looking for innovative ways to consume new energy under the reform environment.In this step,we will build an "invisible hand"-the electricity market and trading mechanism to promote the consumption of new energy.(3)Design of risk measurement model and transaction management and control mechanism for power trading after the connection of new energyBased on risk management theory,probabilistic analysis and other methods are used to sort out and analyze the various risks faced by power market transactions after the connection of new energy,quantitatively analyze the impact of various risks on power transactions,establish a power transaction risk measurement model,and combine new energy and Risk response strategies for post-grid electricity market transactions,analysis and design of new power transaction management and control mechanisms to avoid various risks in the process of new energy transactions.Risk analysis and transaction management and control mechanisms help to further improve the power market environment that promotes energy consumption.(4)Construction of a policy optimization model to promote new energy consumptionIn this part,firstly,analyze and design typical policies to promote the consumption of new energy;secondly,analyze the role of carbon emissions trading market,green certificates and quota system and other policies for the consumption of new energy;finally,the third chapter Based on the system dynamics model,taking Chapter 4's power market mechanism to promote new energy consumption as the environment,and Chapter 5's power trading management and control mechanism as a means,comprehensively construct a policy optimization model to promote new energy consumption.On the basis of the market mechanism,and further combining with the "tangible hand" policy to promote the consumption of new energy and the unbiased and affordable access to wind power photovoltaics,promote the development of new energy,and alleviate the phenomenon of abandoning wind and light.Taking the situation of Province A as an example,through field research and analysis,this paper has obtained the following research conclusions:(1)Although the problem of new energy consumption in Gansu,Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia and other provinces has been alleviated to a certain extent,they still faces serious problem of reduce of wind and the solar power.In order to solve the problem of new energy consumption,the government has introduced a series of policies to promote the consumption of new energy.New energy consumption is affected by factors such as system load level,power grid transmission capacity,Installation capacity of new energy power generation,new energy generation characteristics and technical level,prediction accuracy,market trading mechanism,and government preferential policies.(2)Based on the theory of system dynamics,an analysis model of the influencing factors of new energy consumption was constructed.The impact of new energy consumption on the electricity market is mainly reflected in the power supply planning.The power surplus in 2020-2030 is on the rise.Demand-side management such as electric vehicles,energy storage technology,delivery capacity,and renewable portfolio standard all have an important impact on new energy consumption;the impact of new energy on the social environment is reflected in that the the total amount of pollutants discharged under the energy-saving dispatch is lower than that under the traditional dispatch,and the social cost of environmental pollution under energy-saving dispatch is reduced;the total surplus of social producers is declining in terms of the impact of new energy on producer surplus.(3)From the aspect of electricity market,ancillary services market,capacity market,transmission rights market and electricity financial market,the electricity market reform and trading mechanism was designed and analyzed to promote new energy consumption.In the mature stage of the electricity ancillary service market,Taking the reserve ancillary service as an example,the transaction mode of joint clearing,unilateral and concentrated+distributed trading,the quotation period of day+day and above should be adopted.In terms of cost sharing,the Shapley value sharing strategy is the conclusion of a more appropriate allocation method.(4)According to the market risk management theory,the risk and control mechanism of electricity market trading under the integration of new energy are analyzed,and the risk measurement model is established based on the semi-absolute dispersion model.Then,related strategy recommendations are proposed from the aspects of economic control,social control and anti-monopoly control.(5)The system dynamics model analyzes and designs the typical management and control policies that promote the consumption of new energy,and the simulation analysis of the mechanism policy optimization model.Based on the system dynamics model,this paper studies carbon emission rights,green certificates and quotas.The impact of new energy consumption.The following countermeasures and suggestions for policy optimization were obtained.One is to rationally adjust the carbon emission target and the ratio of renewable energy quotas.The other is to pay attention to the interaction between policies,and the implementation can promote the consumption of new energy.The third is to steadily promote and implement carbon.Emissions policy and green certificate policy,combined with consumption guarantee mechanism to further optimize the policy.