Research On Carbon Emissions Trading Mechanism Of Urban Public Buildings In China

With the acceleration of urbanization,China faces a severe problem of resource scarcity and environmental pollution.As one of the largest energy consumption sectors,the urban public building sector has a high reduction potential,which will contribute to reaching the carbon emission peak by 2030 and going carbon neutral by 2060.At present,China has launched a unified carbon emissions trading system,which encourages the participation of urban public buildings.Therefore,the initial allocation,initial pricing,and safeguard measures for the transaction are the key aspects of the trading mechanism.The ZSG-DEA model,the shadow price model,and the game analysis models are valuable to future researches.The empirical study results are helpful to both governments and market participants.In this dissertation,the main contents and the vital results are as follows:Firstly,research background and research implications are described,especially the ten carbon markets covering the field of urban public buildings.Research gaps in allocation,pricing,and operation mechanisms are found through the literature review.Then theory bases of the overall research are introduced,including Coase Theorem and Pareto Efficiency Theory,Value Theory and Environmental Resource Pricing Theory,Game theory and Mechanism Design,Principal Component Analysis,Data Envelopment Analysis,and the marginal abatement cost analysis.Secondly,carbon emission permit allocation methods on the provincial level and industrial level are studied respectively.On the provincial level,the zero-sum-gains DEA(ZSG-DEA)model is built based on the two principal components which are urban development foundation and urban development structure.The two components are identified from 11 potential influencing factors by conducting a principal component analysis by using SPSS.Results show that permit allocation efficiency under the grandparenting method is only 73.37%.After the reallocation by adopting ZSG-DEA,all of the 30 provinces reach a 100% efficiency,which achieves the Pareto efficiency.On the industrial level,permit allocation methods are discussed and chosen based on the characters of different types of urban public buildings.The benchmarking method is more suitable for office buildings,hotels,and shopping malls.While grandparenting method suits for medical and health buildings,science,education,and sports buildings.Thirdly,marginal abatement costs(MAC)of emission reduction for commercial and noncommercial public buildings are proposed respectively.In the shadow price model,it is assumed that commercial buildings need three kinds of inputs(capital,labor,and energy)and produce two types of outputs: desirable outputs(the added value of the tertiary industry)and undesirable outputs(carbon emissions).For the non-commercial buildings,the process of marginal abatement cost curve(MACC)method is proposed.Empirical results by using MATLAB show that the average MACs from 2012 to 2017 are9600?32400 yuan/ton,which are much higher than the current market prices.Then,a discrimination pricing model is adopted based on the MACs and the production efficiencies of the 30 provinces.Finally,incentive,supervision,and risk management models of the emission trading market are constructed.Incentive models under symmetrical and asymmetric information are constructed respectively.Results show that incentive policies should focus on encouraging energy conservation and carbon reduction technologies,designing laddertype incentive strategies,and reducing the transaction fees.Then an evolutionary game model between the governments and the owners is adopted.The evolutionary stable strategy(ESS)indicates that governments' supervision should focus on positive strategies such as encouraging social supervision and improving the MRV mechanism,rather than heavy punishment.Furthermore,six kinds of risk factors,including price,policy,credit,technology,trading platform,and external environment,are identified through literature review.Warning processes based on big data technology and some relevant policy suggestions are put forward.Innovations of this research focus on three aspects:(1)ZSG-DEA model is adopted to allocate carbon emission permits fairly and efficiently.Regional differences are quantified based on previous studies that help to achieve the optimal Pareto efficiency of allocation under the total emissions control.(2)The shadow price model of commercial urban public buildings is constructed to study the marginal abatement costs.Based on this model,a discriminatory pricing method is proposed to carry out the different prices of carbon emission rights for the 30 regions.(3)The principal-agent model and the evolutionary game model are constructed respectively to analyze the behaviors between the governments and the carbon trading subjects of urban public buildings.Then the incentive and the regulatory mechanisms are designed based on the models.