Study On CO₂ Emissions Embodied In Agriculture Exporting Trade Of China

In the 21st century,the contradiction between development of economy and environmental resources has become increasingly prominent.Low-carbon economy characterized by“low energy,low material,low emission and low pollution”is the inevitable choice for future economic development.Especially with energy constraints and global climate change arising from the global carbon emissions and carbon emissions distribution debate,carbon emissions behind the trade are highly concerned.The international transfer of embodied carbon emissions through international trade is the focus of the distribution of carbon emissions among countries.Since China’s accession to the WTO in 2001,the continuous growth of agricultural export trade has become one of the important driving forces for the development of agricultural economy.However,agriculture is the second largest source of greenhouse gases.With coal,diesel,electricity and other energy consumption and fertilizer,pesticides,agricultural film and other industrial inputs continue to increase in agricultural production,there are a large number of carbon emissions embodied in China’s agricultural exports.Studies have shown that international trade leads to a large number of embodied carbon transferred between countries.About 25%of China’s carbon emissions are to meet the foreign consumer production and consumer demand.As a commodity trade country,although agricultural trade is a deficit,China is a net exporter of agricultural carbon emissions.This is contrary to the current low-carbon agriculture development model characterized by"high efficiency,low energy consumption,low emission and high carbon sink",which is not conducive to the sustainable development of China’s agricultural export trade.How much are the carbon dioxide emissions arising from China’s agricultural exports?How to make full use of the role of engine of agricultural export trade to optimize energy structure and sources of carbon emissions embodied in agricultural export?What are the factors that affect China’s carbon emissions embodied in agricultural exports?How about the efficiency of carbon emissions from agricultural exports?Is there a regional and temporal convergence?Research on these issues will help to provide policy support for China’s low-carbon agriculture development,adjustment and optimization of industrial structure,change the mode of agricultural trade growth,etc.,but also help to ease China’s future climate negotiation.The paper researches the following issues by using quantitative analysis,qualitative analysis,mathematical model analysis,measurement model analysis,induction deductive analysis,comparative analysis and other means of research:（1）To review the existing literatures on agricultural export trade,sort out the theoretical and empirical research on the impact of international trade on carbon emissions,and to classify the calculation methods of embodied carbon in international trade.On this basis,it scientifically defines the connotation of embodied carbon in agricultural export trade,analyzes its characteristics,introduces environmental factors into HO model,constructs environmental trade theory model,analyzes the relationship between environmental factor endowment and comparative advantage,and the particularity of environmental endowment comparative advantage,Which provides the theoretical basis for the research of this paper.（2）Based on the analysis of the status quo of China’s agricultural export trade and the situation of energy consumption,the single-region input-output model is used to measure the total carbon emissions of China’s agricultural export trade from 2001 to 2015.The paper makes a comparison of the carbon emissions embodied in export trade of industrial products and agricultural products,and analyzes the structural characteristics in CO₂sources,energy distribution and technical factors.And further measures the embodied carbon emissions from the export of different agricultural products,and summarize the overall trend and structural characteristics of the embodied carbon in China’s agricultural export trade after joining the WTO.（3）To analyze the relationship between the scale effect,the technical effect and the structural effect and the CO₂ emission embodied in agricultural export.Using the LMDI decomposition method to empirically analyze the contribution of the three factors and from the overall and sub-sectors,and the size and direction of the impact of different driving factors at different times,and the underlying reasons cause different characteristics in different stages.The scale effect is the main reason for the increase of CO₂ emission from agricultural products.The technical effect is the most important factor to suppress the contribution of CO₂emission from agricultural exports.However,the technical effect does not necessarily lead to the reduction of embodied carbon emissions from agricultural products.Due to increasing demand of energy and energy intensity,the technical effect may be positive driving effect.The structural effect is weak,and further optimize the export structure of agricultural products will effectively reduce the carbon emissions from agricultural exports.（4）To measure the embodied carbon emissions in agricultural export trade from each province and further use the Malmquist-Luenberger DEA model of directional distance function to calculate the embodied carbon emission efficiency index and its components of agricultural products export trade in different regions based on provincial panel data.Analysis of efficiency index trends and regional differences and distribution characteristics under constraints of carbon emission.The efficiency index of carbon emissions embodied in China agricultural export has increased by an average of 0.42%,a cumulative of 5.21%.The growth is mainly from the forefront of technological progress contribution,but environmental technology efficiency is slightly degraded;there are significant differences and with unbalanced development in the efficiency between different regions.The eastern region is the most advanced,followed by the northeast and western regions.The central region is the most backward;East region like Fujian,Jiangsu,Beijing,Shanghai,Zhejiang and West region like Sichuan are the leading environmental technology frontiers who push the efficiency of embodied carbon emission of agricultural export but some main agricultural exporting province is with low efficiency;The Malmquist-Luenberger index and the standard Malmquist index are generally consistent,but the latter is overestimated and exaggerates the role of technological progress and technical efficiency to its contribution.So whether to consider the cost of carbon emissions will have a great impact on evaluating the efficiency of CO₂ embodied in agricultural export trade and may lead to policy bias.（5）Through the establishment of the panel data measurement model,the paper makes empirical analysis of the embodied carbon emission on time convergence and spatial convergence and shows that the embodied carbon emissions of China’s agricultural export trade are converging in terms of time and is in line with EKC inverted"U"type characteristics.On this basis,the time and the level of per capita income of the turning point can be estimated.The convergence of the carbon emission efficiency in the whole country and the four regions is analyzed by using the convergence,absolute convergence and conditional convergence.It is necessary to investigate whether the spatial differences in the carbon efficiency of agricultural products export will converge and whether there is a"catch-up effect".（6）Put forward relevant policy recommendations.Mainly include:Adjusting the structure of agricultural export commodities and restricting the export of agricultural products with high carbon concentration;Increase the import of intermediate products with high energy consumption and develop green agriculture;Adjust the agricultural energy consumption structure and increase high quality,high efficiency and low carbon energy.Make use of rich agricultural resources to develop clean energy and renewable energy,and replace gradually the current petrochemical energy by new green energy.Introduce cleaner production technology in the coal industry;promote low-carbon agricultural technology innovation,and reduce carbon emission in the whole process of agricultural production and export by controlling the consumption of intermediate products and reduce intermediate links,and reduce the end of the industry due to energy consumption of carbon emissions;strengthen regional exchanges and proliferation on the aspects of technology,experience,system etc.,narrow agricultural exports Carbon emissions efficiency gap between different regions and realize the overall agricultural energy-saving emission reduction and obtain the target of sustainable growth in agricultural exports.