Study On The Influence Factors And The Control Mechanism Of The Urban CO₂ Emissions-Chongqing Case

The climate change has become the challenge to the entire human community.New development ideology is seen through the complete report of 19^th Communist Party of China(CPC)National Congress.It strongly proposes to establish and practice the concept that the clean water and green mountains are the golden and silver hills,and to promote the green,low-carbon,recycle economic development system.As the promotor of constructing the community of shared future for mankind,China is becoming the leader of the cooperative nations that act on climate change,and the participant,contributor and leadership of the global ecological civilization development.Characterized by population and economic agglomeration,the urban area is the key zone of carbon emissions.To focus on the study of urban CO₂ emissions is importantly helpful to realizing the targets that the CO₂ emissions per unit GDP will reduce 60-65%in 2030 compared to 2005,and the national total emissions will reach the peak around 2030.This study analyzes the urban CO₂ emissions under frame of“two dimensions and four links”.It combines various metric methods to implement the empirical analysis of the urban CO₂ emissions'input-output,the influence factors,the prediction of CO₂ emissions'peak and the amount of CO₂ emissions in“13^th five-year plan”.At the same time,this study considers to construct the urban emissions control system in dimension of governmental check-up system and in dimension of market mechanism.Finally,the correspondent suggestion is proposed.Five parts construct this research:The first part,or chapter one,establishes the analytical frame of“two dimensions and four links”,in analyzing the relationship between the urban population agglomeration,industrial development,life style and the CO₂ emissions.The following chapters all run under this analytical structure.The second part,or chapter two,develops the descriptive analysis and the comparative analysis of amount,the structure and the distribution of Chongqing's emissions.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)and the correlation analysis are used in the empirical analysis.Part three includes chapter three,four,and five.Firstly,the emissions input-output table is worked out from the perspective of the coordination of economic development and emissions development,which empirically analyzes the correlation between 42 Chongqing's economic sectors outputs and the CO₂ emissions,such that it becomes possible to cluster these sectors according to the actual emission level,the potential emission level and the economic output level.Secondly,the influence factors to the urban emissions are studied by using the LMDI method.It is analyzed that how the emissions are influenced by the population growth,the economic level,the industrial structure,the energy consumption structure,the technology level and the political system,etc.Thirdly,it focuses on the analysis and conclusion of the practical lessons and the concrete applications for planning the reaching of the emissions peak in some Chinese large cities,megalopolis and megacities.By constructing the macro,middle and micro models,this study forecasts the emissions for Chongqing in seeking different coordination for reaching the emissions peak in different scenarios.Fourthly,by optimizing the grey model,the CO₂ emissions'amount of“13^thh five-year plan”is forecasted to support the total amount control.Part four includes chapter six andseven.Based on the prediction of CO₂ emissions'amount of“13^thh five-year plan”,it is proposed to control the urban emissions in dimension of governmental check-up system and in dimension of market mechanism.The control by governmental check-up system considers the decomposition of the total amount target and the emissions intensity target,and the check-up system.The control by market mechanism considers the free and payable allocation of the initial emission allowances.The effect of the emissions trading system(ETS)on the urban emission reduction in Chongqing is evaluated.Part five is attributed to chapter eight.,which proposes the political suggestions on low-carbon energy,low-carbon industry,urban-rural development,pilots'experiences,innovation supports,capacity building and organization guarantee.Highlights of this thesis:1.Creativity of the research idea.This study proposes the analytical structure of“two dimensions and four links”,which considers constructing the urban emissions control system in dimension of governmental check-up system and in dimension of market mechanism.Finally,the correspondent suggestion is proposed;2.Creativity of the research method.This study combines various metric methods.Empirical analysis based on different methods constructs relatively new systematic research method in this field;3.Creativity of the research content.Firstly,the urban emissions is analyzed from perspective of economic output and influence factors,which at the same time offers the way to forecast the emissions amount in short term and the reaching emissions peak in long term,all in supporting the emissions control at different phases.Secondly,the control system is supposed to be established by combining the governmental control and market mechanism,which is considered as the systematical and integral urban CO₂ emissions control system.