Spatial Patterns And Influencing Factors Of Pollution-intensive Industries In China By Newly Expanded Industrial Land Use Data

In order to analyze the spatial patterns and influence factors of high-pollution industries,and to reveal the general law of the development and evolution of high-pollution industries,this paper describes the quantity,price and industrial distribution characteristics of newly expanded industrial land from 2007 to 2016 in China at multiple scales.Considering production factor cost,economic development level,market scale factor,infrastructure level,agglomeration and dispersion effect,policy and system,we analyze the factors affecting the amount and ratio of high-pollution industries of newly expanded industrial land,and explore the environmental effects of land transfer behavior in high-pollution industries with geographically weighted regression model.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）Spatio-temporal patterns of newly expanded land for high-pollution industriesGenerally speaking,the amount of high-pollution industrial land is high in East China and low in West China,but the core of industrial land transfer shifts westward,and the proportion in the western region has become significantly larger.Although the price of high-pollution industrial land has increased,the average price is still not high.The price in West China is lower,where there is a significant cold spot;the proportion of high-pollution industrial land in West China is significantly higher than that in East China,and there are significant hot spots in West China.Specifically:1)From 2006 to 2017,the amount of newly expanded land in China’s high-pollution industries increases first and then decreases.The proportion of newly-expanded land in East China and Central China continues to decline,and the proportion in West China continue to rise.The spatial layout of new expanded land for high-pollution industries in China has undergone major changes.The core of industrial land transfer for high-pollution industries has shifted from east to west.After 2011,a number of transfer hotspots emerge in West China to promote the center of standard deviational ellipse to move westward and the ellipse range to expand westward.The overall pattern changes from“north-southwest”to“southeast-northwest”.The average area of single parcel of land for high-pollution industries is higher than that in all industries in China.With the implementation of the optimal land utilization policy,the area of single parcel of land has declined.2)From the perspective of land price,the price of newly-expanded land in high-pollution industries shows the characteristics of gradient reduction from East to West.Since the implementation of the lowest price standard,the land price in each region has increased.East China has the largest increase,while in West China,there is an increase in the beginning.Due to the poor economic base in West China,local governments are facing strong pressure to attract investment and adopt a strategy of selling land at a low price to attract enterprises,even the high-pollution industries.3)From the perspective of industrial distribution,the proportion of new expanded land in high-pollution industries shows a gradient increase from east to west.The averages proportion of new expanded land in high-pollution industries in West China is 52%,which is the highest.In terms of industries,the regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the agricultural and sideline food processing industry are the middle reaches of the Yellow River Economic Zone,the Northeast Economic Zone,and the Northwest Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the beverage manufacturing industry are the middle reaches of the Yellow River Economic Zone,the Southwest Economic Zone,and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the food manufacturing industry are the Southwest Economic Zone,the Middle Yellow River Economic Zone,and the Northeast Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the textile industry are the Eastern Coastal Economic Zone and the Northern Coastal Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the paper industry are the Southwest Economic Zone,the Northern Coastal Economic Zone and the Yangtze River Midstream Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the petroleum processing industry are the Northwest Economic Zone,the Northern Coastal Economic Zone and the Middle Yellow River Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing are the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River,the Northern Coastal Economic Zone and the Northwest Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the chemical fiber manufacturing industry are the Northwest Economic Zone and the Eastern Coastal Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the non-metallic mineral products industry are the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,the Southwestern Economic Zone and the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry are the Northern Coastal Economic Zone and the Southwest Economic Zone.The regions with the highest proportion of new expanded land for electricity and heat production and supply are the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River and the Southwestern Economic Zone.（2）Factors affecting the area and proportion of newly-expanded land for high-pollution industriesFor the distribution of the amount of high-pollution industrial land,in general,the average price of high-pollution industrial land and per capita wage level have a negative impact.Regional GDP,administrative division area,the average area of single parcel of land,distance from provincial capital,and industrial output value have a positive effect.The influence of road density and environmental regulations are not obvious.For the proportion of high-pollution industrial land,industrial output value,distance from provincial capital,average price of high-pollution industrial land,and per capita wage level have a negative impact.The influence of per capita GDP is negative affected in some areas,and the influence of road density and environmental regulation are not obvious.Specifically:Influencing factors for the amount of high-pollution industrial land:1)In terms of production factors,the average land price has a negative impact on the newly-expanded land area in most regions of the country,and the impact become stronger over time with the increase of land price.The per capita wage level also has a negative impact on the newly-expanded land area.High-pollution enterprises also tend to be located in places with low labor costs.2)In terms of market scale factors,the regional GDP has a positive impact on the overall newly-expanded land.Regions with large regional GDP has large market capacity,and will sell more industrial land to enterpirses,including high-pollution enterpirses.The positive impact of the administrative division area is greater in the densely populated central and southern regions,and weaker in the sparsely populated northern regions.3)In terms of road infrastructure,with the rapid development of China and the improvement of infrastructure,road density has no significant impact on the newly-expanded land area in most regions of the country.4)About the agglomeration and dispersion effects,industrial output value has a positive impact on the newly-expanded land area.In order to pursue economies of scale,high-pollution industries also tend to be located in with large industrial scale.The distance from the provincial capital also has a positive impact,and high-pollution industries tend to be located in areas far from the provincial capital.5)In terms of policy factors,as the scale of new-expanded land is controlled by the government,the newly-expanded land for high-pollution industries is significantly affected by optimal land utilization policy,and the average area of single parcel of land has a positive impact on the newly-expanded land area.On the whole,the impact of environmental regulation on the newly-expanded land area is not obvious.Influencing factors for the proportion of newly-expanded high-pollution industrial land:1)In terms of production factors,the average price of high-pollution industrial land has a negative impact on the proportion of high-pollution industrial land in most regions of the country,and regions which have lower economic development level are more sensitive to the average price of land.The impact of per capita wages on the proportion of high-pollution industrial land is related to the level of per capita wages.High wages will have a crowding out effect on high-pollution industries.2)In terms of economic development level,the impact of per capita GDP on the proportion of high-pollution industrial land is not significant overall,and the effect is also unstable.3)In terms of road infrastructure,the impact of road density on the proportion of newly-expanded high-pollution industrial land is not significant in most areas of the country.4)About the agglomeration and dispersion effects,the industrial output value has a negative effect on the proportion of newly-expanded high-pollution industrial land as a whole,indicating that the industrial structure will be upgraded after the industrial development reaches a certain level.The effect of the distance from the provincial capital on the proportion of newly-expanded high-pollution industrial land is similar to the effect on the amount of high-pollution industrial land.It also has a positive impact.The closer to the provincial capital,the lower the proportion of newly-expanded high-pollution industrial land in the region.5)Environmental regulation does not have a significant impact on the proportion of newly-expanded high-pollution industrial land,but in the initial stage of implementation of new environmental standards,there will be a noticeable impact.（3）Environmental effects of high-pollution industry transferFor the impact of high-pollution industrial land transfer behavior on per capita SO₂emissions,overall,the amount of newly-expanded high-pollution industrial land,the proportion of newly-expanded high-pollution industrial land,the ratio of industrial output to GDP,and the per capita GDP have a positive impact on the per capita SO₂emissions.High-pollution industrial land prices and environmental regulations have a negative impact on per capita SO₂ emissions.Industrial output value in some regions has a positive impact in some regions,but has negative impact in some other regions.Specifically:1)In terms of industrial scale,the increase in industrial output value does not necessarily lead to an increase in per capita SO₂ emissions.Despite the positive impact on the underdeveloped areas,in the Northern Coastal Economic Zone and some important industrial bases in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River,the increase of industrial output value improve the ability of pollution control and has a negative impact.The ratio of industrial output to GDP reflects the industrial structure of each region.In general,the ratio of regional industrial output to GDP has a positive effect on per capita SO₂ emissions.2)In terms of economic development level,per capita GDP has a positive impact on per capita SO₂ emissions,but on the other hand,with the development of the eastern regions’economy,the level of pollution emissions from the increase in unit GDP is beginning to decline.3)In general,environmental regulation has a negative impact on China’s per capita SO₂ emissions,and is related to the intensity of environmental regulation.The stronger the environmental regulation,the more obvious the impact.4)In regions where the economy is relatively backward and the industrial scale is relatively small,the increase in high-pollution industrial land has a positive impact on the per capita SO₂ emissions,while in some regions where the economy is relatively developed and the level of environmental governance is high,the increase in quantity of high-pollution industrial land has no significant effect on per capita SO₂ emissions.The proportion of high-pollution industrial land has a positive effect on per capita SO₂ emissions,and the proportion of high-pollution industrial land reflects the industrial structure,and with the increase of the proportion of high-pollution industrial land in the region the pollution emissions will increase;high-pollution industrial land prices have a negative effect on per capita SO₂ emissions,and low-cost industrial land has a greater negative impact on the environment.