Research On Situation Assessment And Early-warning Of Gas Explosion Disaster In Coal Mine

Abstract:For a long time, the gas disaster has been threatening the healthy development of China’s coal industry, and caused great casualties and property loss. Gas explosion accident is the main form of gas disaster in coal mine, having the remarkable characteristics such as devastating strong, large economic loss, serious casualtie and so on, and is the most serious type of accident in the coal mine safety production. Aiming at the weak link of the prevention and early-warning system of gas explosion disaster in coal mine, the method system of situation assessment and early-warning for gas explosion disaster in coal mine was studied by using the relevant theories such as safety science, system science, information&computer science and so on. The study have achieved the early-warning management information system of gas explosion disaster by the mothod combining with theoretical research, field observation, numerical analysis, computer simulation and software development. The research results are great importance to the implementation of early risk recognition and accident prevention in advance in the coal mine safety production system, the improvement of the coal mine intrinsically safe level, and the promotion of sustainable development in coal mine safety.(1) Analysis of the coal mine gas explosion mechanism and prevention and control technology systematically, puts forward the problems of management theory and method system exsisting in it. Accordig to the complexity of risk source of gas explosion and the nonlinear dynamics characteristics of the coal mine production safety system, the situatin assessment and early-warning model of gas explosion disaster in coal mine based on the multi-source information coupling mechanism was put forward by using the risk management and accident causing theory. It had solved the existing problems of information was less and timeliness, which was for gas explosion hazard prevention. (2) Aiming at the diversity and complexity of risk sources of gas explosion, and the mutual influence, interaction and feedback characteristic among of them, the risk sources of gas explosion from the4aspects of "man, machine, environment, management" were analysised. The incidence of risk sources to gas explosion disaster was calulasted by using Gray Relaional Analysis, and the situation assessment index system of gas explosion disaster was built by using the calculation results. To describe the nonlinear and non-independent network relationships among of indexes, Analytic Network Process built the network computation model and calculated the weight distribution of assessment indexes.(3) The GRA-ANP-FCE assessment model to evaluate the situation of gas explosion disaster in coal mine was proposed. The model used the Grey Relational Analysis to calculate the grey relational degrees of risk factors of and ranked them, and the master factors of gas explosion disaster were got. The multi-criteri and multi-levels network computation model for the assessment index system of gas explosion disaster was built by using ANP, and the weights of it would be calculated. The multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was used to assess the situation of gas explosion disaster in coal mine. Because of existing the large amount of certainty and uncertainty effect factors of gas explosion disaster system, this article proposed the ANP-SPA assessment model for gas explosion disaster by using the characteristics of connection entropy of Set Pair Analysis.(4) According to the frame of the situation assessment and early warning system of coal mine gas explosion disaster, the procedure and contents of the frame and the setting of risk warning level and warning threshold on the basis of the research of the risk classification system and risk prediction was introduced. The basic principle of GRNN neural network was studied systematically. The optimization algorithm for the smooth factor of GRNN was put forward. The gas concentration prediction model was established based on the improved GRNN and the assessment model performance and its effection were tested, and its results were reliable. The probabilistic neural network (PNN) theory and the decision fusion theory of information fusion was analysised, and the decision fusion PNN model of the comprehensive early warning of gas explosion disaster. Through the example, the results of it show that the PNN model had strong early-warning capability and high efficiency.(5) In the analysis of the system and their data structure of other business management information system in coal mine safety production, the system architecture of situation assessment and early warning of gas explosion disaster was constructed, and a shared data center for disaster early warning information based on the multi-resource information fusion was established. In order to improve the software information system scalability, reliability, robustness and the robustness, the design concept with the multi language and multi platform was adopted, and it was used to develop the situation assessment and early warning information system for gas explosion disaster, including Matlab, PowerBuilder, Visual C++, and so on.In view of weak links of risk pre-control of gas explosion disaster in the coal mine, with funding from the project5127410of National Natural Science Foundation of China, the situation assessment and the application of early warning system of gas explosion in coal mines are studied by using multidisciplinary theories in this research, which will be very valuable both in academic development and potential application.