| The merger is usually not an isolated activity. The launch of a firm's merger will usually induce a rival's motivation of merger, forms the phenomenon of dynamic merger, and macro to presents the characteristic of merger wave. Dynamic mergers will not only influence the evolution of the industry competitive strucuture, but also influence the firm's competitive interaction tactic. Simultaneousl, industry competitive structure is a very important variable on firm's merger motive. Thus, the research on the model of dynamic merger and predicting merger tendency by using of competive structure variables appears to be extraordinary important on theory and reality, under the background of Chinese high speed development and large scale industrial structure adjustment and restructure.Even though there are some theories aim at explaining dynamic mergers and merger waves nowadays, most of those theories pay their attentions to the industrial shock, stock market's fluctuation, manager's motivation, herd action and so on. But fundamentally, they all emphasize the influence of exogenous variable to dynamic mergers and merger waves. And neglect the importance of endogenous variable such as competition interaction among firms of an industry, market competition structure and so on. That is to say, there are few of endogenous explaining theories on dynamic mergers and merger waves. On the side of predicting the rival action, there has not been ermerging the theory framework for predicting merger tendency by using of competitive structure variables. The only predict theory is Chen's competitive action and competitive response.Thus, this document attempt to utilize the method of complex network analysis, raise the theory model of industry competition pressure's diffusion inducing strategic merger. Take the beer industry of our country as an example, study the mechanism of strategic merger's formation under the situation of multi-market competition, which means to analyze why the merger of firm A to firm B will induce the merger of firm C to firm D, firm E merger firm F and series of cascade merger effect in the point of view of strategic interaction and market competition structure evolution, and ultimately form the phenomenon of strategic merger. Beside this , this paper tries hard to put up a new predict framework of competitive structure and merger actions, on base of relevance of competive structure variables and merger actions. Specifically, first, this document applies the status of global strategic merger of 1997-2008 to build the model of transnational merger complex network. On the basis of analyzing the law of global strategic merger structure, analyze the recombination background, the phenomenon of merger waves and its driver of our country's beer industry. Secondly, discuss the cause of the formation of the situation of multi-market competition in our country's beer industry, separately construct the“market-firm”dichotomy time series network, which are based on the data of our country's beer industry from 1992 to 2009. Proclaims the law and characteristic of industrial competition structure evolution through network topology variation, the evolution is caused by beer firms'merger. After that, build the“competition relationship and merger action”double layer complex network model, using the data of beer industry's competition relation and merger action. Calculate the attribute indexes of network's topological structure, and analyze the relativity of competition structure variables and merger action variables. Then, on the basis of competition structure and rival action frame, put forward the model of dynamic merger model driven by competition pressure diffusion. And discuss the influence of firm competition structure variable to the forming process of dynamic mergers and merger waves through simulation. In addition, discuss the industry competition and merger policy, strategy of firm multi-market merger, aiming at the sensibility of competition variables'influence to merger action. Finally, on base of the empirical study and simulation results, this document put up a new forecst framework and method of“competitive structure-merger action”on the complex network link prediction and neural network data mining method, then make some relational prediction by taking the forecast analysis of beer industry as an example.Through the research we found the following: (1) the statistical property of marks-firm bipartite networks, industry competition relationship networks,“competition relationship-merger action”networks built in this document corresponded to the complex network's character of scale free, small world. And competitive network driven by merger action belongs to a time-depent netowork. (2) As the more and more action of cross-market merger of beer firms, the“market-firms”bipartite network, industry competition relationship networks'structure is getting complicated. The action of cross-market merger makes the discrete, splitted regional market gradually forms the nationwide unified beer market. The competition relations among firm gradually turn from regional market to multi-market rivals. (3) the two network model of“competition relationship-merger action”could composite the ensemble network and the local area network, unweighted network and weighting network, undirected network and directed network, since the analysis of the firms'rival actions determined by objective industry competition relation has significant values, through the research we found the remarkable relativity between beer firms competition structure and merger action. (4) the results of modeling and simulation indicates that the diffusion of industry competition pressure could strike the dynamic merger and form the merger waves, variable such as the competition structure, and the multi-market merger strategy has important influence to the spread to the extends, duration and stable state. (5) combining the forecast thoughts of complex network link forecast and node similarity forecast, we can precisely predict the competition relation of beer firms, frequency of merger and average life through the data of competition structure and merger action. It indicates the feasibility of firm rival action prediction based on competition structure.In the aspect of innovation, first of all, attempting to combine the industry competition relation analysis method of complex network analysis, the theory of multi-market dynamic competition, raise the model of dynamic merger driven by industry competition structure evolution and competition pressure diffusion. This is the expansion and supplement of merger waves theory's explanation. Secondely, combining data excavate tools such as complex network prediction, neural network, using the beer industry data to verify the feasibility of using competition structure variable to predict merger action variable of“structure-action”prediction. Thirdly, time-depent complex networks and“competition relationship-merger action”double network excavate the character and law of beer industry's competition relation and multi-market structure dynamic evolution, supply the new analytical framework to the research of industry organization and dynamic competition. Besides, in the process of simulation, we discuss the industry competition and merger policy, firm merger strategy under the environment of multi-market competition. Finaly, by introducing complex network theory to the industrial competitive relationship, which not only could take account the rational descion-making factors from the view of the manufacturing firm's resources and capacity, but also could analyse industrial competitive envirment influence on their descion-making. Thus, this method could link the strategy management theory and industry organization theory together which put up a new method for industry competition and merger descion-making analysis. |
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