Research Of Effective Competition In Electricity Market Based On Complex Systemm Theory

Although the ways of reforming the electric power market, which started in1970s, differed from one country to another, the basic goal is all the same, and that is "improve the efficiency, lower the cost and optimize the resource". However, as the reform was practiced, problems began to surface and caused concerns among scholars and industry participators. One of the hot issues is whether the reform can achieve the expected goal. With those concerns, researches as how to evaluate "the efficiency of electric power market", what factors are affecting "the efficiency of electric power market", and how to improve the design of the electric power market become the focus of scholars’studies.It is hard to assess "the efficiency of electric power market", because it is hard to define what "the efficiency of electric power market" is, also it is hard to find out what kind of operation result is efficient and which factors are really and it is difficult to figure out what kind of operation result is efficient or what factors are affecting "the efficiency of electric power market". Electric power market, as an economic system, is a complex system contented with multiple factors, levels and layers, which is why it has all the same features and qualities as the complex system. If we do want to research "the efficiency of electric power market", then we have to follow the evolution law of the complex system and also its features.Focusing on those topics, this paper defined what "the efficiency of electric power market" is in the first place, and then based on this definition, established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition. Moreover, this paper constructed an evaluation model toward the effective competition on electric market, so that it analyzed the effective competition among the electric market’s subsystems. There are some main innovations in this paper: firstly, based on the analysis of the characteristics and evolution law of the electric power market complex system, this paper defined what "the effective competition of electric power market" is, replaced the concept of "the efficiency of electric power market", and preceded the research from the perspective of the evaluation of the efficiency of electric power market; secondly, based on the complex system theory, this paper established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition; thirdly, this paper constructed an dynamic evaluation model toward the effective competition on electric market; fourthly, this paper studied the effective competition among the subsystems of the electric power market; finally, this paper made an empirical analysis of the effective competition in the electric power market of South China.This paper consisted of seven sections:In the first section, this paper introduced the complex system theory and analyzed the research methods. It summed up the characteristics of the complex system and elaborated the evolution law which based on its dissipative structure and self-organization criticality. In addition, it considered all the research methods of complex system and explained why the synergetics, the catastrophe theory are able to apply here.In the second section, this paper studied the complex characteristics of the electric power market. This section summed up the self-organization, openness and emergent property as the three basic complex characteristics and used fractal theory to testify the emergent property of the electric power market; besides, it constructed the state space of the electric power market complex system, including system boundary, target, environment and structure; then it analyzed the electric power market’s dissipative structure property and the evolution under this condition; at last, this section analyzed the self-organized criticality evolution law and testified it with the power law theory.In the third section, this paper made some research toward the effective competition in electric power market. It analyzed the effective competition’s basic theory and discussed the effective competition in electric power market, bringing up "effective competition in electric power market" under the concepts of "fair-use resource" and "compatible incentive"; also, based on the outside and inside driving force of evolution, this section established the index system to reflect those influencing factors of the effective competition, laid a foundation to construct the synergy evolution model for the electricity market and calculate the order parameter.In the fourth section, this paper studied how to construct the synergy evolution model for the electricity market and how to calculate the order parameter. After analyzed the fundamental principle of phylogeny, this section compared three classic evolution equations and constructed the synergy evolution model that reflected the operation in electric power market on the basis of Langevin equation; also, after analyzed the principle of order parameter and compared four calculation methods, it come up with the recognition method which was called "reduction of the multi-factor’s dimension" on the basis of the adiabatic elimination method.In the fifth section, this paper studied the mechanism of recognizing effective competition state in electric power market. It studied the rules of recognizing effective competition state in electric power market on the basis of single order parameter and potential function; and also it analyzed the recognition rules again based on the multiple order parameter and Hessen matrix.In the sixth section, upon the SCP theory, the dynamic model of optimal reaction and the mechanism design theory, this paper in-depth studied the effective competition in electric power market from the cutting points of the three subsystem: market structure, behavior and trade. In this section, it came up with the effective competition evaluation criterion of one subsystem, the power generation market structure; it studied the generators’ dynamic mechanism of optimal reaction; also it studied the generators’speculative bidding behavior and the regulation design in the spot market.In the seventh section, this paper empirically analyzed the effective competition state in the electric power market of South China. It analyzed the tendency of the recognition index system of the effective competition in the electric power market of South China; also it used the "reduction of the multi-factor’s dimension" method to identify the order parameters of synergy evolution; moreover, it analyzed the effective competition state of the South China electric power market; and it studied the effective competition of the subsystem in the electric power market of South China.The research of this paper provided new ideas and theoretical basis for the further study of "the efficiency of electric power market", and also theoretically supported the solution design for the electric power market reform.