United States textile fiber demand in major end-use markets

The main purpose of this study was to investigate competition among the major fibers--cotton, wool, cellulosics and non-cellulosics in different end-use markets. The study consisted of two parts. The first part examined changes in the market shares of the major fibers in three major end-use markets and 21 separate end-use categories. The second part used regression analysis to identify the determinants of fiber consumption in four major end-use markets--apparel, home furnishings, carpets and industrial uses.;Markov analysis was used to examine changes in the market shares of fibers from 1956 to 1986. The transition probabilities matrices indicated a high retention rate for all fibers and a relatively low degree of fiber switching. Future projections based on the results of the Markov analysis indicate that the market shares of major fibers would remain stable in most end uses.;The model used in the regression analysis had two major components--an aggregate demand equation and a set of share equations. The aggregate demand equation examined variables influencing aggregate demand in each end-use market. The share equations focused on interfiber competition in each market. The system of equations was simultaneously estimated using annual data from 1956 to 1986.;Income was significant in explaining aggregate demand for apparel, home furnishings and carpets. Other variables significant in the aggregate demand equations were output price and quantity of imports for apparel, input price and the number of new houses for home furnishings and carpets, and automobile sales for industrial uses. Fiber prices were significant in most end-use markets in explaining fiber consumption. Linear and log trend variables were also significant indicating the role of non-price factors in interfiber competition. The results obtained using a linear trend were better in home furnishings and industrial uses. However, both the linear and log trend variables provided satisfactory results for apparel and carpets.