| This study examines the role of minerals in the economic development of the People's Republic of China since 1949, and analyzes the effects of central planning on minerals output. An input-output analysis was completed to evaluate the interrelationships between the metallurgical, coal, and petroleum industries of China and other sectors of the economy. Additionally, historical production amounts of major minerals in China were valued and compared to industrial growth levels of the nation.;Results of the input-output analysis suggest that the coal industry of China has a more widespread, positive impact on the nation's economy than do the metallurgical or petroleum industries. The coal industry purchases more inputs from more sectors, employs more laborers, and has larger output and income linkage coefficients than the other mineral-related industries. Total output linkage coefficients generated in the analysis were 3.51 (coal industry), 3.32 (metallurgical industry), and 2.27 (petroleum industry).;The total value of Chinese minerals production between 1949 and 1985 rose at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent. Mineral values plunged however, between 1962 and 1971 as a result of economic instability in China. Total minerals production was worth 7.1 billion 1980 U.S. dollars in 1949, compared to 48 billion 1980 U.S. dollars in 1985. Combined, the metals, nonmetals, and mineral fuels of China contributed 2.69 percent of GVIO in China in 1949, and a remarkable 26.98 percent 36 years later--1985. Nearly half of the 1985 contribution in value to GVIO came from the mineral fuels, whereas in 1949 the nonmetals contributed the major share--50.93 percent. Single-equation regression models developed in the study suggested that, except for times of economic instability, as the output of heavy industrial products rose in China, the increased demand for mineral raw materials boosted overall minerals output.;Central planning in China was found to have strongly impacted historical minerals output. The current movement towards a modified centrally-planned economy suggests uncertainty about China's minerals industry to the year 2000. Several problems which may hinder future minerals development in China were examined, along with promising aspects of China's minerals base and industry. |
