| An institution's overall financial and academic health depends on effective enrollment and retention management. To improve enrollment and retention, college administrators seek methods to identify students at risk of withdrawing from a course or the institution. Actual engagement behavior is more indicative of each individual's risk level than is demographic information and thus more important to administrators managing enrollment. Higher education institutions lack intervention models that detect at-risk engagement behavior leading to withdrawal or nonsuccessful completion of courses. This study was designed to fill the gap. This study used a nonexperimental, descriptive, and correlation design intended to predict the relationship between amount and frequency of student engagement (discussion postings) and achievement (grades) of a convenience sample of 7,143 online students in a credit-bearing university success course at a private, for-profit university. To create a predictive model for higher education administrators, the research questions focused on investigating the relationships between frequency and amount of engagement, achievement, completion, retention, and persistence measures. These variables informed the creation of profiles of successful completers, nonsuccessful completers, and withdrawers. Statistical tests included regression analysis to examine the relationships between the variables and independent sample t tests to determine the differences between engagement and achievement of completers and withdrawers. If administrators use a predictive model that benchmarks student engagement behavior to achievement and completion, results could include more college graduates, increasing the knowledge workforce that contributes to positive social change. |
