Early identification and prediction of students at risk for dropping out of school using the School Archival Records Search (SARS)

The purpose of this study was to investigate the usefulness of the School Archival Records Search (SARS) as a screening instrument for predicting school dropout. School records from students who dropped out of school (n = 53) and those who graduated from high school (n = 52) were coded using the SARS. Discriminant function analyses, t-tests and multiple regression analyses were conducted. Results indicated that when data from student records from grades 3-6 were used, (a) there were significant differences between dropouts and persisters on achievement test scores and negative narrative comments and (b) dropouts were classified correctly using data collected with the SARS with 77.4% accuracy. When data from student records from grades 7-12 were used, (a) there were significant differences between dropouts and persisters for number of middle and high schools attended, number of absences, referrals to outside agencies, negative narrative comments and achievement test scores and (b) dropouts were classified correctly with 94.3% accuracy using data collected with the SARS. Multiple regression analyses indicated that the predictive ability of the SARS, R;This study demonstrated the utility of the SARS as a screening instrument for the early identification of students who are at risk for dropping out of school. From the results obtained, it appears that there are significant differences between dropouts and persisters and that these differences exist as early as third through sixth grade and they become greater as the students advance through the school system. The importance of this information regarding implications for treatment and future research in this area and limitations of this investigation are discussed.