DEVELOPMENT OF A PSYCHOLOGICAL SCALE FOR EVALUATING ATHLETIC POTENTIAL USING EMPIRICAL AND INTUITIVE TEST CONSTRUCTION STRATEGIES (PERSONALITY, MMPI, MINNESOTA MULTIPHASIC PERSONALITY INVENTORY, SPORT, PERFORMANCE)

Empirical and intuitive approaches to test construction were compared in an attempt to develop a personality scale for discriminating effectively between successful and unsuccessful athletes. Two groups, each containing subgroups of 92 successful and 92 unsuccessful athletes, served as subjects in this investigation, which was prospective in nature. Eight scales were developed using items from the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) item pool. Two scales were constructed using an empirical approach, and four scales were developed using an intuitive method of test construction. Four groups of item selectors, 10 in each group, were used to derive the intuitive scales. Another scale was formed from items endorsed as having potential to discriminate between successful and unsuccessful athletes by at least three out of the four groups of judges. A final scale was developed based on a random selection of MMPI items. The alpha reliabilities of the scales were computed, and the effectiveness of each scale was assessed using discriminant function analysis and a double cross-validation design. All scales except for the scale developed by random item selection were reliable. However, all scales lacked validity as non correctly classified successful and unsuccessful athletes above chance level. The effectiveness of the intuitively developed scales was thought to be restricted by the pool of items rather than by the actual decision-making abilities of the judges, as good objectivity existed among the four groups of item selectors. A series of post hoc analyses were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of using some of the MMPI validity and standard scales to discriminate between the successful and unsuccessful groups of athletes. The scales did not significantly improve the total correct classification of subjects above chance level. However, the scales tended to classify successful athletes significantly better than unsuccessful. With regard to predicting athletic failure, it was concluded that the greatest benefit of assessing the personality of athletes may be to identify those athletes experiencing serious pathology.