| In this study, a residential stage model is developed, applied, and evaluated. The study is primarily methodological and exploratory. The model developed is general, and is both descriptive of past experience and predictive of future trends. The model describes physical and social change in the nature of urban residential areas, and includes both specific temporal and spatial dimensions. It is based on two hypotheses regarding the nature of residential development: (1) that all residential areas change through a definite sequence, and (2) that the sequence can be represented by a number of discrete stages.;Findings generally confirmed the study's overall hypotheses by showing that residential areas normally pass through a sequence of six stages: undeveloped, initial development, intensive development, late development, downgrading, and rehabilitation. Each stage was characterized by a unique collection of dwelling types, housing characteristics, and residents. Besides describing the characteristics of the stages, the temporal dimension of the model included results on differential rates of progress through the stages and a ten class typology of residential change. This procedure demonstrated the flexibility of the model and also validated the existence of development anomalies suggested in Andrews's stage model of residential development.;The spatial dimension of the model described how the pattern of residential development evolved areally and how this pattern could be fitted to classical zonal and sectoral theories. Analyses also showed how government planning and historical events greatly alter the direction of development. Finally, a general schematic model of residential development in urban areas was proposed.;Empirical data for Ottawa-Hull Census Metropolitan Area 1961-1981 were used to develop this model. All data were obtained from the censuses of Canada for 1961, 1971, 1976, and 1981. Variables were selected for three general aspects describing residential areas: dwelling structure, housing, and residents. The stage score technique, developed by Birch, was modified and employed to identify the stage of residential development of the 177 census tracts for each of the study years. |
