| “Disruptive Technology” was coined by Clayton Christensen to describe the type of technology that brings to market a very different value proposition than had been available previously. Because it represents the most powerful and the most fearful force to destroy well-established companies and is in the national best seller “The Innovator's Dilemma ,” the term is widely regarded. When a technology is disruptive and renders the incumbents into failure, the technology becomes destructive. Both scholars and practitioners have rushed to find future disruptive and destructive technologies. Until now, many of them were not successful. In my doctoral research, I try to find a better method for predicting a disruptive and destructive technology.; An analytical framework is proposed to gain insight into how a new technology along with other factors such as consumer preference change, network externality, product compatibility, and marketing strategy leads to a disruptive consumer switch. Inside the framework, I introduce three models to capture the dynamics of a successful disruptive and destructive technology in three different stages: niche market stage, mainstream market stage, and incumbent-defense stage.; In order to measure how fast a technology can become disruptive, we introduce the concept of critical point, at which a disruptive consumer switch becomes inevitable. Using the niche market model, we can show the relationships between the critical point and market factors. When analyzing the relationships, two findings are against conventional wisdom: (1) under some conditions, it is not necessary for new entrants to launch a new product as soon as possible; (2) under some conditions, it is harmful to introduce a new product with a mutual compatibility feature.; The implications of the findings are important to both incumbents and new entrants in the real world. Incumbents should watch new technologies carefully and pay attention to consumer preference changes. New entrants can benefit from the findings in many ways including choosing niche market, making entry strategy, and monitoring its competitive strength against the incumbents. |
