The prediction of college student academic performance and persistence: The school to college transition

This dissertation addresses the prediction of college student academic performance and persistence of Jefferson County Public School graduates at the University of Louisville. Using multiple regression and discriminant analysis, the research design assesses the predictive potential of six Commonwealth Accountability Testing System (CATS) scores and four college preparation variables beyond the predictive contribution of control variables established by the literature. The control variables are high school GPA, ACT score, race, sex, and socioeconomic status. The criterion variables are first semester college GPA, first year college GPA, and persistence to the sophomore year. High school GPA was the strongest contributor to each prediction equation. CATS scores accounted for a significant proportion of variance in first year college GPA with control variables already in the equation.; This dissertation is divided into five chapters. Chapter I provides an overview of Kentucky's recent education reforms, the purpose of the study, and the three research questions. Chapter II is a review of the literature. The literature includes research on the prediction of college GPA and persistence, prediction relative to nontraditional students, race, and gender, and information supply chain management. Information supply chain management is a business concept informative to this dissertation for its modeling of information flow between educational institutions. Chapter III describes the methodology. Statistical analysis includes descriptive statistics, hierarchical multiple regression analyses, and discriminant analysis.; Chapter IV is a summary of the results. The regression models accounted for 20.1% (p < .01) of the variance in first semester college GPA and 31.4% (p < .01) of the variance in first year college GPA. The discriminant function accurately identified 69.0% ( p < .01) of students not returning to the university for their sophomore years. Chapter V, a discussion of the results, includes considerations for educators, researchers, and the application of information supply chain principles to the collaboration between Kentucky's public education systems.