| There are more than one million motor vehicles stolen in the United States each year worth an estimated eight billion dollars. National motor vehicle theft rates decreased each year during the 1990s but have begun to climb again in the new millennium with each year since 1999 experiencing an increase.;This dissertation is a study of rising motor vehicle theft and the effects of ecological change over a decade in the medium size Midwestern city of Peoria, Illinois. The study employs both a series of two-wave cross-sectional analyses and a series of longitudinal lagged ecological effects analyses to study the impacts of community structure on motor vehicle theft. The study addresses three specific areas of shortcomings in the existing literature: (1) reliance on relatively large units of analysis; (2) prevalence of single-wave cross-sectional designs; (3) and use of macro level data to explain micro level community processes derived from a limited number of theoretical perspectives. The study draws upon the underpinnings of multiple theoretical models of crime including social ecology, routine activities, human territorial functioning, and the subcultural diversity model. Additionally, the study identifies alternative theoretical perspectives by which motor vehicle theft could be explored. The research utilizes two unique sources of data: police department records of motor vehicle thefts, and the 1990 and 2000 decennial censuses. Regression analyses are used to identify predictors of motor vehicle theft. The cross-sectional analyses found several differing significant relationships when compared to the results of the longitudinal analyses suggesting that the pattern of relative change is different. For example, SES is a significant predictor when studied cross-sectionally but is less so when studied longitudinally. Heterogeneity has a greater predictive impact longitudinally than it does cross-sectionally. Census block group instability has a paradoxical relationship to motor vehicle theft when studied longitudinally that is not present in cross-sectional analyses.;The findings support the assertion that there are multiple theoretical explanations of motor vehicle theft available when studied at the macro level and that micro level data collection is necessary to fully operationalize the social processes that are directly related to vehicle theft. |
