An economic analysis of the human health impacts of antibiotic use in food animal production and the demand for antibiotic-free meat

The potential for antibiotic-resistant bacteria to pass from animals to humans is thought to increase with the aggregate use of antibiotics, and routine feeding of antibiotics is considered by some to be a leading factor in the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in food animals and the subsequent transfer of antibiotic resistance to humans. Enough evidence has accumulated that the practice of feeding antibiotics to food animals has been banned in several countries as a precautionary measure, and bans have been seriously considered in the United States.; This dissertation develops a framework for evaluating the merits of policy in the United States designed to improve human health by eliminating the nontherapeutic use of antibiotics in food animal production, and further investigates consumer demand for antibiotic-free meat. Following a risk assessment approach, cost of illness estimates are derived for antibiotic-resistant Campylobacter and Salmonella. While antibiotic resistance increases the costs of illness for these two diseases, the increase in costs is shown to be small relative to the overall cost of infection with Salmonella and Campylobacter. Furthermore, differences in both the types of antibiotics used and the manner in which they are used suggest that it is unlikely that banning a particular use will have a substantial effect on antibiotic-resistant infections in humans.; A model of differentiated products is developed where consumers are heterogeneous in their aversion to modern food animal production practices and producers are heterogeneous in the savings they achieve from the use of these practices. The model is used to estimate the potential size of the market for antibiotic-free beef and to assess the price, quantity and welfare effects on consumers and producers that would result from banning nontherapeutic antibiotic use in beef production. Results indicate that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions about consumer willingness to pay a premium, the market for antibiotic-free beef will remain relatively small. Furthermore, a ban on the nontherapeutic use of antibiotics in beef production would be costly to producers and consumers, with costs likely greater than the value of the potential human-health benefit.