| The shopping center system of a city or metropolitan area includes regional shopping centers, community centers, and neighborhood centers, each characterized by attributes such as size, layout, goods/services offered, number/type of stores, and trade area characteristics. There is a strong relationship between trade area characteristics of a shopping center and its attributes, and the shopping center systems of cities/metro areas are based on these relationships. A thorough evaluation of the trade area characteristics helps developers select the best sites for shopping centers and public officials make appropriate commercial zoning decisions. These characteristics can be proxied by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, housing patterns, and the nature of retail competition in the trade areas. The purpose of this research is to empirically analyze the relationships between shopping center attributes and trade area characteristics, and to measure the level of geographic interdependence among consumers and shopping centers across counties and zip code areas in the state of Ohio. Two statistical techniques are used for these analyses: (1) Standard OLS Multiple Regression, (2) 2SLS Simultaneous Equations Estimation. The conceptual framework is based on Oppenheim's retail allocation model. A large database is assembled using proprietary databases, such as Directory of Major Malls, National Research Bureau, and Demographics U.S.A., and public databases, such as Census of Population and Housing and County Business Patterns. The research finds strong relationships between shopping center attributes, proxied by shopping center size, and trade area characteristics, proxied by population, income, age groups, ethnicity, etc. In addition, the research uncovers various levels of geographical interdependence across shopping centers and consumers, pointing to the nature of retail competition in a shopping center system. The level of interdependence is higher at smaller geographical units, which generally constitute the primary trade areas of shopping centers. These results can be used by decision makers and developers for commercial zoning policy, and for shopping center site selection. |
