| Energy scenarios for the 21st century powerfully inform perceptions and expectations in the minds of energy investors, consumers, and policy-makers. Scenarios that stabilize global warming call for large-scale energy technology transitions, fueling debates about the relative roles for a range of technologies including nuclear power, carbon sequestration, biofuels, solar power, and efficient end-use devices. In the last decade, hundreds of scenarios have been published by more than a dozen research teams using different models, baselines and mitigation targets. Despite the efforts to summarize findings in a few major assessments, a gap in understanding remains at a critical science-policy juncture between scenario analysts and the audiences their work is designed to serve. Addressing the issue requires an interdisciplinary approach that incorporates knowledge and methods from the fields of energy engineering, economics, climate science, and policy analysis.; This research applies two analytical techniques to investigate the effects of an imposed climate policy on the underlying energy system. The first disentangles the effect of a policy intervention on key demographic and technology drivers of fossil fuel use, and the second decomposes reductions in emissions by specific energy technology types. Because the techniques may be applied to any energy scenario with technology detail, this study demonstrates their application to ten sample stabilization scenarios from three leading models. Revealing the importance of data and assumptions overlooked or not well disclosed in the past, the results highlight an implausibly high pressure on energy supply innovations while the potential for energy efficiency improvements is systematically underestimated. The findings are significant to both scenario analysts and the decision-makers in public policy and private investment who are influenced by their work. |
