The Demography of Deindustrialization in Michigan, 1990 - 2014

In 2008, Michigan was the only state in the nation to lose population after the Great Recession of 2007 began. The prior seven years placed Michigan at the top spot in the nation for having the highest percentage of offshoring manufacturing operations, from 2000 - 2007. Michigan led the nation in income loss in 2009, according to the U.S. Census American Community Survey. Some economists reported that Michigan has been in a one state recession, never recovering from the recession of the early 2000's. One in every six jobs in Michigan was lost during this decade alone. Decades of deindustrialization have slowly eroded the industrial base of Michigan's economy. Economic globalization has impacted both public and private regional human capital investment in ways we do not fully understand. The process of transitioning from an economy based on manufacturing to an economy reliant on services in a region strongly impacted by deindustrialization was analyzed. The region selected for the study is historically the seat of the automobile industry. Population changes, Becker's (1964) classic human capital theory, and deindustrialization were investigated in the study. The study evaluated relationships between human capital investment, the process of deindustrialization, and population estimates in Michigan's 83 counties from 1990 -- 2014 within the theoretical framework of human capital theory. The research question was analyzed using a multilevel regression at the p < .05 level. Data were mined from government records. The purpose of this non-experimental, quantitative study was to examine whether human capital attainment and measures of deindustrialization predict changes to population estimates in Michigan. Results indicated significant relationships between human capital investment, wages for goods-producing industries, and population estimates. For every Bachelor's degree earned, population estimates increased by 5.022 people. For every dollar increase in wages, population increased by 1.251 persons. Human capital investment was the most significant variable in determining population estimates. A contribution to knowledge about economic and human capital predictors of migration patterns was offered.