Determining the influence of past development experience on the cost of strategic ballistic missile development

The influence of learning in the form of past relevant experience was examined in data collected for strategic ballistic missiles developed by the United States. A total of twenty-four new missiles were developed and entered service between 1954 and 1990. Missile development costs were collected and analyzed by regression analysis using the learning curve model with factors for past experience and other relevant cost estimating relationships. The purpose of the study was to determine whether prior development experience was a factor in the development cost of these like systems.;Of the twenty-four missiles in the population, development costs for twelve of the missiles were collected from the literature. Since the costs were found to be segmented by military service, a discrete input variable for military service was used as one of the cost estimating relationships. Because there were only two US Navy samples, too few to analyze for segmentation and learning rate, they were excluded from the final analysis. The final analysis was on a sample of ten out of eighteen US Army and US Air Force missiles within the population.;The result of the analysis found past experience to be a statistically significant factor in describing the development cost of the US Army and US Air Force missiles. The influence equated to a 0.86 progress ratio, indicating prior development experience had a positive (cost-reducing) influence on their development cost. Based on the result, it was concluded that prior development experience was a factor in the development cost of these systems.