Technology, forecasting, and ambiguity: A study of university decision making during the construction of twenty-first century academic libraries

This dissertation explores the process of higher education decision making during the construction of new academic libraries at American universities, with special attention to the influence of technology forecasts. The "organized anarchy" model of decision making, also known as the garbage can model (Cohen, March & Olsen, 1972; Kingdon, 1995) was used as the conceptual framework for analyzing and interpreting the data collected for this research.;Four research questions are addressed. First, for the period 1990-2007, what were the most frequently published forecasts related to technology in academic libraries? Second, how do library directors and other key decision making participants describe decision making during the construction of new academic libraries? Third, how do library directors and other key decision making participants describe the use of technology forecasts during the construction of new academic libraries? Fourth, what additional internal and external elements influenced decision making during the construction of new academic libraries?;Findings confirm the descriptive rigor of the model. Additional phenomena, coherent with the model and appropriate to the focus of this study, are identified. These include forecast agnosticism, microcoupling, isomorphism, and asymmetric influence. Though the data for this dissertation are best understood through an adaptation of the original garbage can model, its fundamental tenets are retained and affirmed.;Findings also suggest important areas for future research. These include librarians and entrepreneurship, the library within university decision making streams, and institutional decision making as consumer choice. Furthermore, the methodology used in this research provides a facile model for the application of garbage can analysis beyond the library and, indeed, beyond the university. For researchers interested in corporate, government, professional, and even personal decision making the approach of this study offers a ready starting point for further exploration.