Antecedents of memory confidence for a delayed marketplace transaction

Prior research has identified relatively few variables that have been found to affect memory confidence (e.g., predicted memory). The current research is an attempt to identify key motivational, cognitive, and individual difference factors that influence memory confidence for a future event. Specifically, future event importance is suggested to be the key motivational factor influencing memory confidence for a future event. A stimulus factor (message format) and an individual difference factor (regulatory focus) are posited to interact with future event importance to differentially affect memory confidence.;In addition, little research has systematically examined the effect of memory confidence (e.g., predicted memory) on current behavior. The current research integrates recent findings in both social and experimental psychology to argue that, in some cases, memory confidence for a future event will have a positive effect on purchase intentions. In establishing a positive linkage between memory confidence for a future event and current behavior, the research relies on expected value theory and the theory of planned behavior.;Finally, the current research contends that if a variable causes memory confidence for a future event to increase it will also cause memory overconfidence for a future event to increase (even if the variable in question increases both predicted and actual memory). To establish this robust prediction, the research relies on and integrates recent findings in experimental psychology concerning the effect of memory confidence on memory aid usage and the effect of memory aid usage on actual memory.;Three experiments were conducted and the findings offer mixed support for the initial predictions advanced. This research is applicable to an entire class of transactions that involve an initial decision at t0 and a future event at t1 (e.g., free trial offers, rebates, extended warranties, etc.). Indeed, it is asserted that marketers cannot fully predict consumer response for such 'delayed transactions' without taking these issues into account.