A study of geographical characterization of ship traffic and emissions and cost-effectiveness of reducing sulfur emissions from foreign waterborne commerce for the United States west coast

This dissertation enhances existing methods and develops the Waterway Network Ship Traffic and Air Emissions Model (WWN-STAEM) to improve the accuracy of spatially resolved emissions inventories. Global empirical ship traffic networks were built based on historical ship locations. Sulfur emissions from ship movements in the U.S. Foreign Commerce Entrances and Clearances data set were estimated and assigned spatially based on the statistically most probable routes solved with ArcGIS Network Analyst. Ships carrying U.S. foreign commerce burned about 38 million tons of heavy fuel oil, emitted about 2 million tons of SO2 in 2002, about 14% of SO2 emissions from all sources in the U.S. in the same year. About 88,000 tons of SO 2 were discharged in the area approximating the U.S. West Coast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).; Cost-effectiveness of technology-based regulation, performance-based regulation, and market-based approach for controlling SO2 emissions were evaluated. The SOx Emissions Control Area Marine Emissions Optimization Model (SECA-MEOM) was developed to simulate the optimal SO2 emissions reduction from ships in SOx Emissions Control Areas (SECAs). The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) was used to implement the optimization model.; Results show that the price premium of low sulfur fuel can drive the fleetwide average costs of SO2 reduction. For some individual ships, the capital costs are more critical. The performance-based regulation can reduce more SO2 with overall cost-savings up to {dollar}247 million in a year for the SECA fleet than the technology-based regulation. A market-based policy can achieve the overall SO2 reduction goal for SECAs with one out of 10 SECA ships scrubbing exhaust gas. Compared with the performance-based regulation, a market-based control policy could save up to {dollar}154 million or save about 59% of the total costs to reduce 38,700 tons of SO2 emissions in the U.S. West Coast EEZ SECA in a year. With more SO2 emissions reductions in the U.S. West Coast SECA and more reductions closer to the land, the market-based instruments can likely yield more benefits with lower overall costs than the command-and-control regulations and may be favored by both environmental interests and the shipping industry.