| Comprehensive tourism is the focus of tourism supply-side reform.Scientific quantitative evaluation and space-time evolution analysis of Chinese provincial comprehensive tourism development level will help to comprehensively grasp its current status,time-space evolution process and development trend,and provide basis for rational allocation and optimization of spatial distribution of resource and elements of tourism destinations,and provide the necessary evidence to identify key influencing factors for comprehensive tourism development.From the perspective of spatial effect,this paper discusses the influence mechanism and driving mechanism of the space-time evolution of comprehensive tourism,and provides necessary decision support and theoretical basis for improving Chinese provincial comprehensive tourism development level and carrying out regional cooperation.This paper focuses on the comprehensive tourism development of 31 provinces in mainland China,in accordance with the research paradigm of “elements-pattern-process-mechanism”,and the“comprehensive tourism evaluation system(element)-the evaluation of comprehensive tourism development level(pattern)-the spatial-temporal evolution of comprehensive tourism development level(process)-the spatial effect of comprehensive tourism(mechanism)” is the main line of logic.Using the comprehensive method of combined weighting method,difference analysis method,coupling coordination degree,standard deviation ellipse,spatial autocorrelation,classical econometric models,and so on,based on the evaluation and analysis of comprehensive tourism development level and its space-time evolution of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2000 to 2016,the spatial effects of comprehensive tourism are further studied to reveal the internal mechanism and driving mechanism of its spatial and temporal evolution.The thesis consists of six chapters,and it is organized as follows:The first chapter is the preface which is about the background,problems to be solved,objectives and significance,content and framework of this paper.The second chapter is the literature review,mainly combing the relevant research progress and basic theories at home and abroad.The third chapter is about the measurement and time series evolution of comprehensive tourism development level.The factor evaluation model and coupling coordination model of tourism supply and demand are constructed respectively,and the comprehensive tourism development level is comprehensively quantified from the two aspects of factors and structure.Based on the evaluation of comprehensive tourism development level,reveals its time series evolution.The fourth chapter is about the spatial evolution of comprehensive tourism development level,combined with the results of the mutation test,using the spatial evolution analysis methods such as the natural best fracture point,Getis Ord *index and standard deviation ellipse to analyze the evolution of spatial differentiation,hot-cold spatial distribution and spatial pattern of the development level of comprehensive tourism from the two aspects of factors and structure,respectively.The fifth chapter is about the spatial effects of comprehensive tourism,basis on space-time evolution of Chinese provincial comprehensive tourism development level,futher analyzes spatial effects of the comprehensive tourism development index,tourism demand,tourism supply and the coordination of supply-demand of comprehensive tourism,from the dimensions of overall,local and structure,to reveal the internal mechanism and driving mechanism of the spatial and temporal evolution of comprehensive tourism.The sixth chapter is about concludes and discusses which summarizes the main research conclusions and discusses the possible innovations,shortcomings and prospects of this paper.The study found that:(1)On a national scale,the development level of comprehensive tourism has generally improved.On a regional scale,the development stages of tourism development in the three major regions of China are different.The eastern,central and western regions are in the stage of structural adjustment,comprehensive improvement and initial development,respectively.From the provincial level,the time series evolution and relative advantages and disadvantages in different provinces are different.The provincial structure of the comprehensive tourism development level from the aspect of structure takes the shape of an olive.The inter-provincial differences of the comprehensive tourism development index and the tourism demand have narrowed,and the inter-provincial differences of comprehensive score of tourism supply have become increasingly differentiated,but the inter-provincial differences of the comprehensive tourism development level from the aspect of structure have narrowed.(2)The spatial distribution of Chinese provincial comprehensive tourism development index has gradually formed a structure of circle layer,to some extent reflects the impact of economic development level and policies on the comprehensive tourism development index.The spatial evolution of tourism demand and its elements is both common and different.The spatial evolution of tourism supply and its elements has spatial connection and regional features.The spatial heterogeneity of the comprehensive tourism development level from the aspect of structure is significant.Hu’s line has become the boundary between I-III and IV-V grades and hot-cold spots,to a certain extent reflect the impact of regional economic development level and population size.(3)Spatial effect is an important factor affecting Chinese provincial comprehensive tourism development level;the provincial comprehensive tourism development level is affected by its own factors,and also affected by the spatial spillover effect of neighboring provinces.In addition to spatial effects,regional economic development level,openness,infrastructure,population quality and technological innovation are important factors influencing the comprehensive tourism development index;regional economic development level,openness,population quality,population size and traffic convenience are important factors influencing the tourism demand and related indicators;regional economic development level,openness,industrial structure,environment and infrastructure are important factors influencing the tourism supply and its related indicators;openness,population size,industrial structure,regional economic development level,infrastructure,population quality and scientific and technological innovation are important factors influencing the coordination of supply-demand.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the theory of tourism system,the evaluation models are constructed from the aspects of factors and structure to comprehensively evaluate the comprehensive tourism development level,which provides a preliminary framework for the effectiveness evaluation of the comprehensive tourism demonstration zones.(2)Measure the comprehensive tourism development level and reveal its time series evolution.Through the measurement and time series evolution analysis of the comprehensive tourism development level,the relative advantages and disadvantages and development stages of each region are identified,which provide evidence for comprehensive tourism development strategy acting as circumstances permit.(3)Analyze the spatial differentiation and spatial evolution of Chinese provincial comprehensive tourism development level.From the aspects of spatial hierarchy,hot and cold point distribution and spatial pattern,the spatial evolution law of Chinese provincial comprehensive tourism development level is analyzed,which provides guidance for the optimization of the layout of tourism in China’s provinces.(4)Study the influence mechanism of comprehensive tourism from the perspective of spatial effect.Using the spatial econometric models,the internal mechanism and driving mechanism of the spatial and temporal evolution of comprehensive tourism are analyzed,which provides a new research perspective and methodological guidance for comprehensive tourism research. |
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