| Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China has made great achievements in the economic field.The miracles created by China have attracted worldwide attention,among which the most distinctive factor is the important role played by local governments in the process of economic development under the framework of fiscal decentralization that has been implemented in China in the past 20 years.However,with the rapid development of economy,the existing central and local fiscal and taxation mechanisms are facing major challenges.Land finance has an important impact on two aspects: first,it has indeed shown great help in China’s infrastructure construction and urbanization;second,local governments rely heavily on land transfer fees for economic construction,which has resulted in a very serious problem of land dependence.In the second kind of influence,local economic construction relies heavily on land finance,which contains incalculable land financial risks.First of all,the primary development market of land is controlled by the local government.The local government can obtain monopoly income by expropriating farmers’ land at a low price and selling it to real estate companies at a high price.However,because of the lack of means of production and the limited social security,farmers have buried social instability factors.Secondly,under the current situation of especially prominent contradiction between people and land,land finance has led to farming Thirdly,excessive dependence on land finance will lead to the high rise of real estate prices,the continuous erosion of residents’ consumption capacity,the emergence of large-scale social consumption shortage,causing residents’ anxiety and panic.In addition,because the local government can no longer obtain stable land transfer income,it is difficult to achieve stable growth of local economy.However,the instability of land transfer income is likely to cause various social problems.Therefore,land finance and social aspects are closely related,including economic growth,ecological balance and social stability.In view of the risk of land finance,it is necessary to put forward early warning in time and find an effective way to resolve the risk,so as to avoid the possible serious damage to China’s social economy caused by the major system risk.Many factors lead to the problems of land finance.The defects in the financial system,financial system,political system and legal system are reflected in the problems of land finance in China.Therefore,the study of land finance is of great practical significance.The problem of land finance is not only the problem of land finance itself,but also the concentrated reflection of the urgent need for further reform in the economic system and legal system of our country.In recent years,although many scholars have conducted in-depth research on the impact of land finance,their research focuses on how land finance can promote the expansion and growth of local economy and how land finance can help accelerate the realization of urbanization.The quantitative analysis of correlation is still lacking,especially in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium system.In addition,the analysis and study of the impact of real estate tax replacing the original land finance on China’s economic fluctuation will help to provide a reference for the future reform of China’s financial and tax system and the implementation of decision-making.As a new financial tool,the real estate tax has special research value in the transmission of economic fluctuations.The innovation of this paper lies in the construction of a DSGE model including four departments of family,consumer goods production,real estate construction and local government and financial accelerator mechanism,and the introduction of real estate tax mechanism in this model to explain and analyze the impact of the implementation of real estate tax policy on China’s economic operation and the original land financial mechanism.In the aspect of model setting,this paper makes a systematic and comprehensive analysis,combs and refines the hypothesis of real estate in household consumption decision-making and the setting related to real estate construction,which provides a theoretical basis for further research in this field in the future.In addition,the model constructed in this paper has a high degree of fit for the simulation of the current situation of China’s actual economic operation,which can largely explain the financial changes of local governments and the overall economic fluctuation after the introduction of real estate tax.The main results are as follows: In the model without real estate tax policy,the impact of housing preference is simulated.The impulse response results show that: without real estate tax,a standard housing preference changes the marginal utility of housing in the household consumption decision-making,so that the household increases the expenditure on housing.With the rise of real estate price,the house purchase expenditure in the household expenditure increases and disappears Expense and investment decrease.In addition,the rise of the real estate price also pushes up the land price.Due to the rise of the land price cost and the decrease of investment in the economic environment,the real estate construction sector can only increase the number of housing construction by increasing the labor input,which also reduces the labor input of the consumer goods sector,and ultimately reduces the output of the consumer goods production sector.Although the budget constraints of local governments are relaxed due to the rise of land prices,and the number of infrastructure they can provide increases correspondingly,they cannot prevent the reduction of total output in the economy.After the model with real estate tax policy simulates the impact of housing preference,the impulse response results show that: the real estate tax in the family budget constraint can reduce the marginal utility of housing in the family consumption decision,reduce the increase of the family’s purchase expenditure,maintain the original stable state of the house price,and eliminate the strong appreciation expectation of the real estate price,which makes the family to invest Increased demand.Local governments are willing to increase land supply and reduce the price of land supply when they have real estate tax income,and local governments can provide more infrastructure when the budget is loose.With the increase of investment and the increase of land supply in the whole society,the output of the consumer goods production department and the real estate construction department has increased.However,due to the steady state of the real estate price,and the long-term growth of the price level,the income of the consumer goods department has increased,thus absorbing more labor force and bringing about a greater production growth of the consumer goods department.The research results of this paper have important reference value for the policy making of relevant departments. |
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