The Study Of China’s Real Estate Price Fluctuation And Economy Fluctuation Based On DSGE Models

Real estate is one of the most important consumer goods,is also an important asset,and it is closely related to peopled living consumption and production.However,real estate affects the stability of macro economy through investment and consumption.The real estate industry has become an important part of the national economy,more and more fluctuations interaction between it and the economy.However,China’s real estate industry is also faced with many problems,one is the high prices;the other is that the ghost town phenomenon appears continuously.Real estate economic instability willhave a profound impact on the economy,at first it take the impact on the stability of financial markets,and further cause the whole macro-economic system instability.This paper focuses on the economic impact will cause what kind of impact on the real estate industry,what kind of mechanism do the real estate take the impact on the economy through?This paper first analyzes the financial accelerator effect of the real estate and its industry’s economic characteristics,and then discusses the relationship between the real estate and other economic variables described by VAR model.We use BGG model to describe the financial accelerator effect,which is on the basis of the introduction of real estate.Then we construct a new DSGE model in the new Keynes model perspective,try to analysis the mechanism of all kinds of impact influenced the economy by the volatility of the real estate market.At last we hopes to provide the suggestion to the government to formulate the real estate control policies.In this paper,the simulation method of parameters in the DSGE model 1s calibration,which could analysis the impact of preference shocks,technology shocks,inflation shocks and interest rate shocks on economic fluctuation.The results of the study show that:the preference shock will have a negative impact on the economy,so that the price is too high.While the high prices will to attract the economy resources toward the real estate industry,and cause the expansion of business investment,and increase the output in a very short period of time.Tecbnology impact on real estate also have to promote the elevation of the priee of the household.And technology shocks eaused a decline in interest rates and the economy,inflation remained at a low level.In a word,technology shocks result in the increase of total output and the rise of social welfare.The biggest harmful impact on the economic caused by inflation shocks.It make the interest rates and real estate prices had an obvious increase,and the decline of the social total output.At the same time,consumer and real estate holdings fell sharply.The impact of interest rate shocks on economic fluctuation take the minimum influence.When the interest rate shock occurs,the output,the real estate price,consumer,family real estate holdings can restore the balance in a very short period.