Research On The Impact Of Trade And Investment Opening On China's Industrial Structure

The essence of reform and opening up is the institutional change aimed at establishing and improving the socialist market economic system.Its impact on the economy and society is comprehensive.Nowadays,due to the rise of international trade protectionism and some problems in the process of economic transition,there are also some anti-opening and anti-globalization “noise” in China.In fact,China's rapid economic development in the past 40 years has mainly relied on reform and opening up,especially opening up,which makes the Chinese economy integrate into the world economy,and promotes the reform of China's economic system.Of course,reforms also promote openness.Through reform and opening up,the system operation cost is greatly reduced,and the Chinese economy and world economy are linked up,Chinese economy obtains high-speed growth,this already formed consensus.This paper takes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure as the entry point,and uses the existing empirical facts to study the systematic influence of the opening of trade and investment on the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure.Opening to the outside world means that the state no longer adopts protective policies that close the domestic market and domestic investment sites,relax policies and various restrictions,cancel some restrictive policies,actively expand foreign economic exchanges,and develop an open economy.The opening includes many aspects.This paper studies two aspects:the opening of trade and the opening of investment,including import,export,foreign direct investment(FDI)and outward foreign direct investment(OFDI).The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure should be analyzed from multiple dimensions.It is unrealistic to think about how much to increase the proportion of tertiary industry(Shaoan Huang,2013).Firstly,the distribution of output value structure of three industries should be considered,and an embodiment of the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is the improvement of the level of development of non-agricultural industries.Secondly,the production efficiency of the three industries should be considered from the angle of input-output,which is to measure the efficiency of resource allocation in different industries,and the industrial structure with low efficiency of resource allocation must not be a reasonable industrial structure.Thirdly,the symmetry of distribution of labor force in each industry and output value of each industry should be considered.The asymmetry between them indicates that the product market and labor market are not equilibrium,and there is recessive unemployment or the demand of labor force transfer.Finally,the rationality of industrial structure should be considered from the perspective of resource consumption and environmental protection.According to the report of the 18 th CPC National Congress,the industrial structure of saving resources and protecting ecological environment should be the structural framework of obtaining more output with less energy input and pollution emission.In view of the above factors,this paper puts forward the hierarchical coefficient of industrial structure and Theil index,Moore index,the industrial structure equalization index and the industrial structure low carbonization index are the explanatory variables of the research.The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is affected by many factors,international trade and international investment are the important explanatory variables of this paper.The overall level of economic development,the level of human capital and technology,the consumption structure,the macro-control of the government and the degree of marketization will all have an impact on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.This article selects the index as the explanatory variable from the above several aspects factor.Through the systematic analysis of the internal mechanism of trade opening and investment opening affecting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,at the same time,using OLS,VAR model,panel regression and other methods,the paper empirically analyzes the impact of trade and investment opening on industrial structure,and the following conclusions are drawn:1.Import and export are significantly positively correlated with the industrial structure level coefficient at the 1% level,and OFDI is significantly positively correlated with the industrial structure level coefficient at the 5% level.FDI is significantly positively correlated with the industrial structure level coefficient at the 10% level.The impact of export and OFDI on the industrial structure level coefficient is 0.0810,0.0952,and the impact of import and FDI on the industrial structure level coefficient is 0.0698,0.0686.Judging from the size of the impact coefficient,the “going out” of Chinese commodities and capital has a greater effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure than “inducting in”.The econometric regression results of provincial panel data fixed effect model show that the effects of import,export,FDI and OFDI on the hierarchical coefficient of industrial structure are basically the same as the results of full sample data regression.2.FDI,export and industrial structure optimization are related to 5% significance level.Import,OFDI and industrial structure optimization are positively correlated at 10% significance level.Among them,FDI has a negative impact on industrial structure optimization,and the impact coefficient is 1.305,indicating that the higher the foreign direct investment,the lower the industrial structure optimization level.The distribution of foreign capital in industries is uneven,and the labor productivity of industries with a large distribution of foreign capital is higher,which intensifies the difference in labor productivity of various industries and reduces the level of industrial structure optimization.3.There is a significant correlation between FDI,OFDI and industrial structure equalization at the level of 1%,in which OFDI has a negative effect on industrial structure equalization.This indicates that the higher the OFDI,the lower the level of industrial structure equalization.The reason for this is that the scale of China's foreign investment is constantly expanding,the mode of foreign investment is mainly capital-driven commodity going out,and the scale of capital-driven talents is small,which makes the adjustment of employment structure and industrial structure unsymmetrical.Affect the equalization of industrial structure.4.OFDI and industrial structure ecologicalization are positively correlated at a significant level of 5%.The transfer of domestic marginal industries and high-energy-consuming industries through outward foreign direct investment is conducive to domestic ecological environmental protection and raising the level of low-carbonization of domestic production.5.The econometric regression results of provincial panel data fixed effect model show that the level of marketization and the level of government fiscal expenditure at the level of 1% are significantly positively correlated with the industrial structure hierarchy coefficient.The market-oriented index and the government expenditure have significant positive influence on the industrial structure level coefficient at the same time,which indicates that it is necessary for the government to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure in China,and the market governance should be combined with the government governance.Combine the visible hand with the invisible hand to promote the level of industrial structure.Government expenditure has a negative impact on the low carbonization of industrial structure,which indicates that it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of the use of government financial funds and improve the efficiency of the use of funds.6.The influence coefficient of Engel's coefficient on the five dimensions of industrial structure optimization and upgrading is negative,negatively affecting the industrial structure level coefficient at 5% significant level,and negatively affecting industrial structure equilibrium at 10% significant level.The lower the Engel coefficient,the higher the people's living standard,the higher the demand for consumer goods,and the consumption upgrade will inevitably spur the upgrading of the industrial structure.The Engel coefficient has no significant impact on the optimization of industrial structure,the advanced industrial structure,and the low carbonization of industrial structure,indicating that the effect of consumption upgrading on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is not obvious.The influence coefficient of human capital level and technical level on the five dimensions of industrial structure optimization and upgrading is not significant.This feeling does not conform to economic theory.This paper analyzes that in the process of optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure,the contribution of human capital level and technology level has not been exerted,and it is more dependent on capital and relying on rich and cheap labor.In the next step,in order to realize the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and avoid falling into the middle income trap,China must improve its core competitiveness,which must be realized through the promotion of human capital and the breakthrough of innovation.7.Panel data sub-regional measurement regression results show that import,export,FDI and OFDI development can promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the eastern,central or western regions.In terms of the general law of the impact of import,export,FDI and OFDI on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,the eastern region has the strongest effect,the central region is the second,and the western region is the weakest.Through the conclusion of the study,this paper gives the following policy suggestions:further expanding the opening up to provide the impetus for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure;guiding foreign direct investment in the rational distribution of various industries;through “going out”and using the international market to resolve overcapacity and optimize the industrial structure;attaching importance to the promotion of human capital and technological innovation;the combination of government governance and market governance to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure;paying attention to the risks of opening up.