| After the financial crisis,the global economy fell into a downturn,and developed countries pursued a policy of economic recovery based on "re-industrialization",encouraging technological innovation and restructuring their industries in order to find new ways to revive their economies.The "re-industrialization" strategy of developed countries has intensified the urgency of manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading in our country.Compared with the developed countries,China’s manufacturing industry still has the problems of low industrial level,weak innovation ability and low level of utilization of foreign capital.The constraints of transformation and upgrading still exist.As a big manufacturing country,China is in the transition stage from traditional manufacturing to modern manufacturing.The problems accumulated in the past extensive growth model are becoming more and more prominent.The resource and environmental constraints are also increasing.The new normal of the economy has put forward higher requirements for manufacturing transformation and upgrading.The extensive model of growth based on large input of resources,low cost of factors of production and simple imitation of technology can not be sustained.In the future,China’s manufacturing industry should rely more on technological innovation and improve the quality of factors to achieve sustainable development.In view of this,based on the actual conditions of manufacturing transformation and upgrading in China,this paper evaluates the efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading on the basis of measuring the level of manufacturing transformation and upgrading,analyzes the internal and external factors that restrict China’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading,and resolves the locking effect of path dependence.And put forward the countermeasures and suggestions of accelerating the transformation and upgrading of our manufacturing industry in order to promote the transformation of the extensive factor driving model to the intensive innovation driving model.This paper is based on the idea of proposing problems,analyzing problems and solving problems.The main research contents are as follows:The first chapter analyzes the background of the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry and the situation it faces.In the wake of the international financial crisis,developed and developing countries have taken steps to restore new advantages in manufacturing competition.China’s manufacturing industry is faced with a "double squeeze".In order to respond to the challenge of changing development conditions at home and abroad,we should shift the speed of development to the quality of development.Drive factor driven change to innovation-driven change.It can be seen that the importance of technology innovation-driven transformation and upgrading has been recognized,by reviewing the existing research results of manufacturing transformation and upgrading at home and abroad,but there are few related studies on how to play the driving role of production factors,and it is still to be studied in quantitative measurement and empirical research on influencing factors.The second chapter related concepts and theoretical basis.Through the connotation analysis of manufacturing transformation and upgrading,it is determined that manufacturing transformation and upgrading is a dynamic process for manufacturing to develop to a higher level,including advanced aspects such as industry structure,technology structure and product structure.Technological innovation is the internal driving force of the transformation and upgrading.The efficiency of technological innovation reflects the important role of technological capability in the production process,and it is also the centralized embodiment of the transformation and upgrading process.By defining the effects of technological innovation and FDI spillover,and analyzing the development context of industrialization stage theory,industrial structure evolution theory and sustainable development theory,it lays the theoretical foundation for further research.The third chapter China’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading factors affecting the mechanism.The improvement of technology level and efficiency is the concentrated embodiment of manufacturing transformation and upgrading.Transformation and upgrading rely more on new elements such as talents,technology and institutions to achieve intensive development patterns.The change of ownership structure may affect the economic growth in many aspects.The opening up mode mainly affects the industrial transformation and upgrading through foreign investment and foreign trade.Through the spill-over effect,management demonstration and competition effect of foreign investment,our country can obtain the advanced factors of production such as knowledge,technology and management methods needed for industrial transformation and upgrading,thus promoting industrial transformation and upgrading.In addition,Path dependence has a "dual effect" on the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.The fourth chapter is the realistic basis for the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.The constraints of resources and environment are constantly increasing,and the extensive growth mode is unsustainable.The requirements for transformation and upgrading are more urgent.The "new normal" has become the staged feature of China’s manufacturing economy development.How the industrial structure adapts to the changes in the consumption structure has put forward higher requirements for China’s industrial transformation and upgrading.China’s industrialization process is in the middle to late transition stage.On the basis of heavy industrialization and high processing,the manufacturing structure will further show the trend of technology intensification.Backward production capacity is facing elimination,and technological innovation will be the central link in transforming the development mode.The fifth chapter measures the level of China’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading.Adopting the industry structure leading coefficient to measure the direction of manufacturing transformation and upgrading.The Lilien index model and the more value are used to measure the transformation and upgrading speed of the manufacturing industry.The former measures the speed of industrial transformation and upgrading by examining the transfer of labor among various industries;the latter measures the speed of industrial transformation and upgrading by examining the speed of change of the industrial structure.The results of the industry structure lead coefficient show that China’s manufacturing technology-intensive industry structure has evolved rapidly.The Lilien index measurement results show that the labor redistribution speed in China’s manufacturing industry is accelerating,while the industrial structure vector angle and the industry structure change mean value show that the internal structure of the manufacturing industry changes slowly.The sixth chapter evaluates the efficiency of China’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading.According to the influence of time factors,the efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading is divided into static efficiency and dynamic efficiency.The Bootstrap-DEA method is used to calculate the static efficiency and dynamic efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading in each region.The results show that the static efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading in 30 regions of the country shows a gradual improvement trend,while the dynamic efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading has declined.The dynamic efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading in the region is different.Keep shrinking.The seventh chapter empirically analyzes the factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.On the basis of measuring the level of transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,the dynamic spatial panel model is used to empirically analyze the effects of the factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.The results show that human capital and export level have the greatest impact on the level of transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry.The influence of internal factors is greater than external factors.The path dependence of labor redistribution speed is stronger than the speed of manufacturing structure.On the basis of evaluating the efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading,in view of the fact that the value of efficiency is only within the interval,the spatial Tobit model is used to empirically analyze the effect of factors affecting the efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading.The results show that human capital and export level have the most significant impact on the efficiency of manufacturing transformation and upgrading.The influence of internal and external factors is not bad,and the technology spillover effect of FDI is not obvious.The eighth chapter proposes countermeasures to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.From three aspects,it puts forward suggestions on how to improve the quality of factors to promote the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.First,accelerate the transformation of new and old kinetic energy,further enhance the ability of innovation and development,and shape new advantages in industrial competition.Second,in order to solve the path dependence of China’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading,we should develop high-end manufacturing as a breakthrough,deepen institutional reform,and enhance policy support.Third,in order to give play to the role of foreign capital in promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,it is necessary to deepen international capacity cooperation,release the technology spillover effect,and enhance the level of opening up.The conclusion of this article.Summarize the conclusions of the research,including raising issues,analysing problems and resolving them. |
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