Research On Mismatch Risk Early-warning Of Enterprise Financing Structure Based On Industry Risk Dynamic Monitoring

Financing is the starting point of all financial activities.The mismatch of financing maturity structure and financing sources structure would lead to the problem that cash flow is not enough to pay for the interest and investment needs,so that the enterprise could suddenly lose access to liquidity and face the financing structure mismatch risk.Business capacity of enterprise is reduced later.Even it may lead to bankruptcy because of unable to repay debts.Most of the research of traditional financing risk early warning stay in the enterprise internal risk factors.They put forward the indexes and factors influencing enterprise financing structure within the enterprise,such as growth ability,profit ability,company size,etc.However,the industry risk factors influencing the financing structure are lack of research and exploration,especially about empirical study for industry risk factors.It is not conducive to enterprise comprehensive consideration and choosing of financing structure.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the factors and transmission path of mismatch risk of financing maturity structure and financing sources structure with the study of space-time characteristic of financing structure mismatch risk based on industry risk dynamic monitoring,and then set up the established practical and feasible mismatch risk early warning system of enterprise financing structure based on industry dynamic monitoring.The dissertation builds theoretical framework of industry risk dynamic monitoring according to dissipative structure theory,maturity matching theory,pecking order theory,agency theory and balance theory.Meanwhile,it constructs the industry risk dynamic monitoring model referring to �industry risk factors monitoring��industry risk period monitoring��industry risk positioning monitoring� with panel data model,investment clock model and matrix positioning method.On this basis,the dissertation analyze the characteristics,factors,conduction path and evolutionary stages of the financing structure mismatch risks.Then it takes analysis of mismatch risk early warning of enterprise financing structure based on the industry risk dynamic monitoring respectively from the mismatch of financing maturity structure and financing sources structure.At last,the scientificity and feasibility of this research is confirmed through the empirical analysis.This dissertation provides a scientific and feasible early warning model and technology tools for the enterprise to strengthen the management of financing structure mismatch risk.There is guiding and referential significance for enterprise to make the right investment and financing decision.Specifically,the main research results include:(1)constructing industry risk dynamic monitoring model.The panel data model,investment clock model and matrix positioning method are introduced into the industry risk dynamic monitoring to establish industry risk dynamic monitoring model including � industry risk factors monitoring��industry risk period monitoring��industry risk positioning monitoring�.(2)Exploring the evolution mechanism of mismatch risk of enterprise financing structure based on industry risk dynamic monitoring.The characteristics of formation,space-time and risk of financing structure mismatch are analyzed.It in-depth studies the key risk factors influencing mismatch risk of enterprise financing structure from two aspects of industry financing environment and industry financial characteristics,then reveals the evolutive features and transmission route and designs the procedure of risk early-warning for financing structure mismatch risk.(3)Carrying out analysis of mismatch risk early warning of enterprise financing structure based on the industry risk dynamic monitoring.It takes analysis of mismatch risk early warning of enterprise financing structure respectively from the mismatch of financing maturity structure and financing sources structure with the industry risk dynamic monitoring model.The dissertation does the empirical testing for key risk factors that influence the mismatch risk of financing maturity structure and financing sources structure,discusses the situation of financing structure mismatch under different industry risk cycle.And then the financing structure mismatch risks are positioned.(4)Empirical analyzing enterprise financing structure mismatch risk early warning based on the industry risk dynamic monitoring.The dissertation uses 26 listed companies of information technology industry as research samples,and carries out empirical analysis of financing structure mismatch risk early warning with 1 information technology companies(* ST tiancheng)specifically.The result verifies the feasibility and reasonability of mismatch risk early warning mode of enterprise financing structure based on industry risk dynamic monitoring.This dissertation research on the mismatch risk of enterprise financing structure from the angle of industry risk dynamic monitoring.Theoretical framework of industry risk dynamic monitoring is built,and industry risk dynamic monitoring model is constructed with panel data model,investment clock model and matrix positioning method.Then it discusses the mechanism and method of mismatch risk early warning of enterprise financing structure based on the dynamic monitoring of industry risk,combining with the space and time dimensions of financing structure.It is expected that this research could give a kind of effective and feasible thought and method to help manager handle the mismatch situation of enterprise financing structure,position the mismatch risk of financing structure and establish crisis control policy.The main innovations: establishing industry risk dynamic monitoring model including �industry risk factors monitoring��industry risk period monitoring��industry risk positioning monitoring�,designing the multi-dimensional and tridimensional method from risk monitoring to risk early warning for mismatch risk early warning of enterprise financing structure.