Reliability Analysis Of Emergency Logistics Systems

With the rapid development of science,the technology related to the prediction of natural disasters has developed to a considerable level.However,due to the existence of uncertainties in emergency logistics,sudden natural disasters and sudden public health incidents of different scopes of impact still occur from time to time,which brings devastating blow to humanity undoubtedly,the people’s lives and property,the stability and sustained development of the society have also been greatly threatened.China is a country with high natural disasters,such as the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008,the Yushu earthquake in 2010.The emergency logistics occurs accompanying disaster relief process,and the existing problems of emergency logistics will be revealed during the disaster relief process.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out research on the reliability of emergency logistics system in theory and practical application.In this paper,we use the theory of reliability engineering,and referringthree subsystems: the reliability model of materials of emergency logistics system,emergency logistics facilities system and emergency logistics distribution system,theconstruction,optimization and solutionof reliability model of such exploratoryresearch works as follows:(1)Firstly,this paper defines the concepts of emergency logistics,emergency logistics system and emergency logistics risk management.Then the significance of reliability to emergency logistics system,the influencing factors of reliability of emergency logistics system and the sources of reliability are analyzed,the construction of the reliability model of emergency logistics system is discussed at the same time.Finally,the characteristics and types of emergency logistics are classified and analyzed.(2)The characteristics of the demand for materials after a sudden disaster are analyzed.In view of the influence of the uncertain situation in the critical period of disaster relief,this paper presents the demand model of emergency supplies combined with fuzzy programming theory and case-based reasoning,then carries out the simulation of the examples so as to more accurately estimate the rescue demand when the disaster occurs,easy to the distribution of emergency supplies,and improve the efficiency of rescue.(3)Considering that the procurement of emergency supplies is different from ordinary commercial procurement,this paper establishes the incomplete game model of static information from the perspective of game theory,then discusses the strategy selection of suppliers and purchasers in the process of procurement of emergency supplies.Based on the application of the continuous-time Markov chain,a prediction model for the damage of the emergency supply chain is establishen and the reliability of the emergency supply chain structure is studied.(4)Combining with the research of emergency logistics network planning,considering the disrupting of the emergency logistics center when disasters happen,a dual-objective emergency logistics center location model with reliability constraints is constructed.And the elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm(NSGA-Ⅱ)is used to solve the model and the case study.The sensitivity of the parameter facility disruption probability is further analyzed to determine the effect of the parameter on the objective function.(5)Based on the theory of emergency logistics and distribution,the reliability analysis of emergency logistics and distribution vehicles route is taken into account.Considering the constraints of different road traffic capacity reliability on the transportation time of disaster relief materials,an open-loop emergency logistics and routing vehicle routing model with time window is constructed,At the same time,the crowding degree factor in artificial fish swarm algorithm is introduced to improve the searching ability of the standard ant colony algorithm.An improved heuristic algorithm is proposed to solve the model and analyze the case.The research results mentioned above provided the methods and measures of improving reliability of emergency logistics system.Therefore,it’s of great significance to improve the planning of emergency logistics system.Meanwhile,it can provide decision support for emergency logistics operation.