Research On The Financing Risk Of Urban Utility Tunnel Projects

In the utility tunnel construction investment and local government fiscal constraints generally spread in the background,the introduction of social capital research and through policy guidance,supporting the effective incentive measures,and financing risk management in project financing stage is of great significance.This paper reviews the development process of domestic and foreign utility tunnel and financing mode,and through the study of public management theory,game theory and finance risk management theory,the research in these three areas of foreign and domestic scholars,systematically discusses the feasibility using PPP mode to build utility tunnel project and concrete means.Through the establishment of game model in the fourth chapter,the utility tunnel building in different game activities between the parties is analyzed,and the most beneficial to the improvement of social utility model of cooperation,the government plays a leading role in the process of the game,so the game equilibrium in minimizing the cost of government expenditure position.Not only that,after the utility tunnel project,because of social capital or project unit cost is a sunk cost,in the collection of pipeline unit pay management time absolute disadvantage status,therefore needs government intervention,take credible measures such as subsidies or punishment to guide pipeline units on schedule according to the amount to pay related costs.In order to minimize the problem of a shortage of funds during the operation of the item company,thus reducing the financing risk.The punishment cost is much lower than the cost of subsidies to encourage the government,starting from the angle of budget control,also tend to adopt the means of punishment,regardless of punishment or subsidies,the most important thing is to make the item company and pipeline units that such measures are credible,or the effect will be greatly reduced.After finding the optimal cooperation mode,discussed all kinds of risk corridor construction and operation of underground pipe to the whole cycle,especially the financing risk is difficult to quantify,but the identification and quantification of financing risk has important research and practical significance.Among them,the most important credit risk of financing risk,this paper discusses the evaluation method of transition probability matrix,but the defect is that the collection of historical data is very limited.Because it involves many sources of risk and continues the whole financing cycle,the VAR method should be adopted to evaluate the financing risk of the project comprehensively.And Monte Carlo simulation method,the project construction through the prophase financing risk evaluation,and discusses the historical method and transtion-probablity matrix method to predict the credit risk of the borrower to the project,and put forward effective policy recommendations.This chapter sorts out the cost classification in the construction and operation of underground comprehensive pipe corridor,and makes a comprehensive comparison with the direct construction and maintenance cost of pipeline units.The fourth chapter analysis of game model has come to the conclusion that the utility tunnel building social capital participation,can help the whole social welfare in a sufficient number of pipeline units involved in the case of Pareto improvement,but the premise is the supporting measures of the government especially the punishment measures should be in the full cycle of the project is always valid and credible.The fourth,fifth chapter based on the theory analysis conclusion,without considering the positive externality,this chapter of the sixth chapter by the recent case three examples to verify the feasibility of the domestic pipeline units to rely on fees for operating the comprehensive utility tunnel project.When the government’s supporting measures are in place and credible,only enough pipeline units will enter the corridor and pay the fees on time,so as to cover the investment and operating expenses of the project.Due to the complexity of the construction of the corridor and the great difference in the cost of the different storage spaces,this chapter intends to use the data of the underground comprehensive corridor in the three cities in recent years to estimate the number of units in the corridor.By comparing the buried construction and maintenance costs,without considering the operation of the project found that the company’s earnings,an average of about 18 units into the pipeline corridor in order to achieve balance of payments and better than the buried investment and construction scheme.In addition,the social capital to participate in the utility tunnel construction financing risk,this chapter and sixth chapter by Monte Carlo simulation method,project construction through the prophase financing risk evaluation,through the examples,through the use of the fifth chapter discusses the value of VAR Monte Carlo simulation estimation method in low probability level,how much for the project has the biggest scale of loss,and then through the value of capital and collateral available to evaluate the coverage degree of risk exposure,and then determine whether the financing risk control.It should be noted that the VAR value approach can effectively help assess the exposure of financing risk,and thus help risk managers to determine whether measures need to be taken to control risk.