| The gradual replacement of the low value-added traditional industries with high value-added modern producer services is an objective basis for a country’s transition to sustainable development in the process of economic transformation and upgrading.It is also the integrate way for developing countries to successfully enter the ranks of high-income countries.However,compared with developed countries in Europe and America,the proportion of High value-added producer services which represented by research and development,design and so on are still low in GDP.To achieve the tertiary industry and the secondary industry to a deeper level of organic integration to promote the industrial structure to a higher level of adjustment,China must accelerate the development of high value-added modern service industry during the period of 13 th Five-Year plan,and create new engine of enhancing the status in the Global Value Chain.Replacing business tax(BT)with value-added tax(VAT)not only opens up the deduction chain between manufacturing and producer services,but also avoids the multiple taxation in the middle part of the production process,therefore,the effect of the structural tax reduction and unified effect of tax system formed by the reform promote the separation and deeper development of high value-added modern service industry from the manufacturing industry,which is conducive to improve the overall level of producer services.Then in view of the fact that the existing literature can not provide a better explanation of the new problems in the transformation and upgrading of producer service and the reform of BT to VAT,this paper attempts to incorporate the difference-in-differences theory model into the analysis of the effect of replacing BT to VAT by combining the background of the current national industrial structure transformation and upgrading,to analyse the effect of replacing BT to VAT on the specialization division of the producer services industry,and then applies the Panel Vector Auto-regressive Model and the Spatial Model to explore the effect of the reform of replacing BT to VAT on promoting the internal structure and space agglomeration of producer services.Finally,the paper uses the "anti-fact" test model and the dynamic panel data model to analyze the effect of the reform of of replacing BT to VAT on promote the optimization of export structure of the producer services.This paper mainly answers thefollowing question: How can the complete deduction chain form by replacing BT to VAT change most produce services in the secondary industry and promote the specialization and refined development of produce services? The core of the economic transformation and development is the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.Based on the deepening of specialized labor division and collaboration in producer services,does the comprehensive reform of replacing BT to VAT further promote the internal structure optimization and the geographical agglomeration of the produce services,and improve the industrial distribution and core competitiveness of the producer service industry? If the internal structure of the service industry is optimized and the geographical space tends to gather,will the export structure change accordingly,does the reform of replacing BT to VAT play a role,and what is the internal mechanism?This paper reviews and comments the literature on reform of replacing BT to VAT and the transformation and upgrading of the producer services at home and abroad.On above basis,this paper analyzes thoroughly the progress of replacing BT to VAT in producer services and the characteristics of specialization division,regional heterogeneity of internal structure upgrade,spatial cluster and dynamic evolution of export industry structure optimization in producer services,then elaborates the regulation mechanism of the "reform of replacing BT to VAT" on promoting the transformation and upgrading of producer service industry,and make empirical research on the effect of "reform of replacing BT to VAT on the transformation and upgrading of the service industry from the following four aspects:First of all,based on sub-sector and sub-regional characteristics of the reform of replacing BT to VAT,the model of difference-in-differences is used to study the effect of the reform of replacing BT to VAT on the deepening division of labor service.This paper chooses the annual report data of 760 listed companies whose business scope includes producer services in A shares of Shanghai and Shenzhen between the year of2009-2016 to systematically and rigorously study the deepening effect that the reform of replacing BT to VAT on the division of producer service industry.This chapter uses the difference-in–differences model to estimate the policy implication of the reform of replacing BT to VAT on the deepening division of labor service industry in China by using the characteristics of the gradual expansion of the sub-regional sub-sector.The results shows that:compared with control group enterprises,the main business value-added taxation of the producer service enterprises outsourcing the proportion of outsourcing intermediate goodsincreased significantly after reforms.The results of the differential test show that the reform of replacing BT to VAT made a contribution of 1.671 percentage to the level increase of specialization of the producer service industry,and the positive effect of the reform on the professional level of the producer service industry has continued to exceed five years.The result of the difference-differences test shows that the reform replacing BT to VAT in the degree of specialization of the producer service sector is increased by 0.162 percentage regardless of the influence factors that have nothing to do with the reform in the reform in the control group,and the empirical conclusion can be improved by the robustness test.Secondly,in view of the traditional econometric analysis methods(such as the simultane ous equations model and other structural methods)is difficult to provide a careful interpretatio n of the dynamic relationship variables,and can not solve the problem of endogenous explana tory variables,the paper applies panel vector auto-regressive model(PVAR)is used to analyze the dynamic effect of stochastic perturbation term on the system of explained variables,thus explaining the effect of the reform of replacing BT to VAT on variables and other control variables on the internal structure of producer service industry.This paper elaborates that the transmission mechanism of the reform of replacing BT to VAT upgrading of the internal structure of the producer service industry.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China during the year of 2003 to 2016,this paper validates the size and direction of structural updating effect that the reform of replacing BT to VAT promote production service industry,and further measures the process and degree of the internal structure upgrading of the producer service industry through the impulse response function and variance decomposition.The empirical results show that the collection of business tax is not conducive to the upgrading of the internal structure of China’s producer service industry,and the VAT variable has a positive effect on the internal structure upgrading of the producer service industry,but there has lagged reactions.The impulse response function estimates show that the business tax has a negative impact on the upgrading of the internal structure of the producer service industry,and this shock has a significant inhibitory effect and a long lasting effect,while the VAT variable on the upgrading of the internal structure of the producer service industry has a stable effect.Further analysis of variance revealed that the business tax variable had a significant effect on the internal structural upgrading index of the producer service industry from the second lag,and the VAT had strong effect from the third lag and increased with the change of time.Other control variables:economicdevelopment,improvement of environmental quality,opening level and Human capital level have promoted the upgrading of the internal structure of China’s producer service industry,but the corporate income tax and personal income tax are not conductive to the upgrading of the internal structure of China’s producer service industry,while the improvement of traffic conditions on the provincial producer services,the impact of internal structural upgrading is volatile.Thirdly,owing to the economic and social activities of a region in the urban development,it may have diffusion or a retrograde flow effect on the surrounding areas.Therefore,there is also a spatial correlation between producer service industry agglomeration in all regions.At home and abroad,the relationship between producer service Industry agglomeration and it’s influencing factors has been studied from the industrial level.But,rarely discussed in space,dimension respect,if regardless of the effect of the spatial correlations to explanatory variables in the model,it may obtain an estimate value of deviation or invalidity(Anselin,1988).For that,on the basis of existing research,selecting the data of 286 cities in China from 2006 to 2016 as samples,constructing spatial econometric based on the new economic geography theory and the product characteristics of producer service,this paper makes a empirical test on the impact of the reform of replacing BT to VAT policy on the producer services agglomeration in the cities of eastern,central,northeast and western China.The empirical results based on the national level data show that the behavior of urban producer services has obvious spatial correlation.By separating value-added tax and business tax we find out that there is a remarkable positive relationship between the proportion of value-added tax and producer services agglomeration scale,however there is a positive relationship between the proportion of business tax and producer services agglomeration,but the impact is not significant;When both the value added tax and the business tax coexist and regression,the proportion of value added tax and business tax has a positive impact on the agglomeration scale of producer services,but the coefficient of value added tax is about 5 times the business tax coefficient.The empirical results based on the data of the plate level show that the effect of value added tax on producer services agglomeration is positive,and the effect is more obvious in the central and eastern regions;Although the collection of business tax promotes the agglomeration of producer services in the cities of four major regions,the effect is not obvious;The regression coefficient of dummy variable of the reform of replacing BT to VAT is significantly positive,and the policy of the reform ofreplacing BT to VAT promotes the agglomeration of producer services in the eastern cities of China.The results of other control variables based on the national and regional data show as follows: the corporate income tax and personal income tax is negative to the agglomeration of producer services,the services outsourcing effect produced by manufacturing agglomeration promotes the agglomeration of producer services,the per capital wealth,foreign,direct investment,human capital and city traffic promote the producer services agglomeration significantly,while the ecologic environment of eastern,northeastern and central city has a negative externality to the agglomeration of producer services.Furthermore,this paper analyzes the reform of replacing BT to VAT affects the expert structure of producer services in two stages,the first stage focuses on analyzing the direction and magnitude of the impact of reform of replacing BT to VAT on the export structure of producer services,reference to the new evaluation method adopted by Hsiao et al.(2012)—— "couterfactual" method of inspection,an empirical evaluation of the role of the reformation to the reform of replacing BT to VAT in promoting the export structure of producer services in Shanghai,Beijing,Jiangsu,and other pilot areas was conducted,this method is more advantageous to the policy of shorter implementation time and asynchronous regional implementation.The empirical results show that reform of replacing BT to VAT has a negative impact on export structure optimization index in the three regions of Shanghai,Beijing,Jiangsu,but the effect is not obvious.Using the AR model to further calculate the impact of reform of replacing BT to VAT policy on the export structure optimization of producer services in Shanghai,Beijing and Jiangsu and found the long term negative effect of reform of replacing BT to VAT pilot On the export structure optimization index of producer services in shanghai tends to be-0.01699,while the impact value of Beijing and Jiangsu were-0.0142and-0.0161,the reform of replacing BT to VAT pilot program reduced the expert optimization index of producer services in shanghai by about %685.1e-101699.0(28)-and made Beijing and Shanghai reduced by 1.410% and 1,597%.The second stage focuses on the dynamic impact of reform of replacing BT to VAT on the export structure of producer services,using the dynamic panel data model to examine the dynamic changes of the impact of reform of replacing BT to VAT on the export structure of producer services,and found,the variable coefficient of the export structure of producer services in the previous period was significantly positive,which means the export structure of producer services in China has a self optimization.When we ignores the interaction terms the model,both the variables ofbusiness tax(bit)and the value added tax(vtit)have negative effects on the expert structure of producer services,but after adding the interaction terms,the absolute value of the coefficient of business tax(bitit)and value added tax(vtit)variable coefficient is larger than the model coefficient without adding the interaction item,which indicates that when regardless the comprehensive effects of the reform of replacing BT to VAT on the export of producer services structure,the negative effect on reform of replacing BT to VAT is undervalued.On the whole,the policy of the reform of replacing BT to VAT has not played a role in promoting the optimization of export structure of producer services in the short term.Finally,based on the previous theoretical celebration and empirical test results,this paper comprehensively examines the reform of replacing BT to VAT and the related tax,revenue tours,which promote the transformation and upgrading of producer services in China,and puts forward policy recommendations to promote the transformation and upgrading of producer services. |
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