| Corn is one of China’s three major grain varieties,accounting for about a quarter of the national food production.By the impact of import corn,the competitiveness of China’s corn market significantly decreased.At the same time,with the corn processing industry rapidly booming and rising,the surge in corn demand used for feed grain and deep processing,so that the supply and demand conflict.The corn shortage phenomenon has emerged,the corn yield has been unable to meet the needs of the local processing enterprises’ corn deep processing capacity.This contradiction on one hand pushes up the price of corn and increases the cost pressure,on the other hand the corn supply falling short of demand is bound to increase the imports of corn.China was the corn net exporter,however,due to the corn demand surged more than the domestic production,corn tight balance between supply and demand pattern has been broken.In the individual years the phenomenon that production is not sufficient condition even appears.In 2010,China corn trade balance situation changed from net exports to net import owing to the first large-scale imports of corn.But according to the spirit of agricultural trade liberalization,with further opening of the import maize access policy,the impact of the world corn market on China corn industry become more direct.In this context,this article will give a new perspective to study the safety evaluation of corn industry in China,simulate the effect of international market and import admittance policy change on maize industry on the basis of the overall safety evaluation of the maize industry in China,which has important significance to the maintenance of China’s corn industry security.First,on the basic of the accurate the concept and the characteristic of industrial security and industrial security system,this paper constructs a safety comprehensive evaluation index system of our country’s corn industry system that is more scientific,comprehensive,and quantifiable under the condition of opening up,by industry control theory,industry theory,industry damage theory and industrial international competitiveness theory as the basic framework.Second,by using the method of time series analysis,analyzes the trend and the regularity of each index,and gives the prediction of future data extension.Third,uses the AHP and fuzzy evaluation method to get the estimation results of China corn industry safety degree,and analyzes the security and the trend of the comprehensive evaluation of maize industry system.Then,with the general equilibrium model,analyzes the impact of the corn industry in China in two kinds of situations.Finally,puts forward some countermeasures to maintain the security of the maize industry in China.The main contents of this paper are:(1)On the basic of the definition of the concepts,such as the meaning and characteristics of industrial safety,the meaning,the characteristics and the constituent of the industry and the industry system,gives the framework of industrial safety system.Secondly,constructs the model of safety comprehensive evaluation indexes of maize industry system in China that is more scientific,comprehensive,and quantifiable under the condition of opening up,on the basis of industrial control theory,industry protection theory,industry damage theory and industry international competitiveness theory and other aspects.(2)Use time series to forecast variation regularity of data and each index.For the analysis of maize industry security situation in the next few years,need to forecast the value of indexes,can also explore the regularity of each index.Because of the strong volatility of the data,cannot use regression model.According to the previous observation,the index data show some regularity with time changing,so this paper uses time series to analyze historical data during 1999-2012,and establishes time series model to predict the data of each evaluation index of 2013-2017,as well as the change regularity of each index analysis with the model changing trend.(3)Use the method of factor analysis and fuzzy evaluation method to analyze dynamic evaluation and trend of the corn industry system safety in China.Through the establishment factor analysis model,finds that the import investment control index is in the first place of ranking factors,and analysis result shows the two most important indicators affecting maize industry security are the dependence of industry import and the indicators of industrial control.Secondly,through setting the warning limit of each index,mapping index value and other steps,synthesizes fuzzy evaluation model,finally obtains the estimation results of China corn industry system safety degree.The results display that domestic corn industry security has stage characteristics.In 2001-2008,the security rating of maize industry in China is safe,and the 2009-2019 rating is unsafe.The reason is that in the first half period(2001-2008),China’s corn consumption growth rate is not fast,and the self-sufficiency rate in corn is higher,and corn import dependence is not strong.The international food provider control strong in the layout of our country,but industrial control effect on corn industry in our country is limited,because of our country corn oversupply and adequate inventory.In the second half period(2009-2019),China’s corn supply and demand situation changes,and the situation of oversupply of maize is gradually broken,the corn market appears tight balance.At this time,corn and its by-product import and import dependence have a substantial increase,and international capital strengthen the equity control of China’s corn industry.In the domestic,under the growth rate of production lower than consumption condition,international maize market fluctuation and capital control have a negative impact on China’s corn industry security.In addition,this part also analyze index scores of foreign industry control safety,import dependence index safety,the international industry competitiveness,industry safety rating index,security of the self-sufficiency rate,industry domestic supply and environmental security.(4)Setting the simulation methods and the research program.Firstly,introducing the basic principle and structure of the model of the global trade analysis in this paper;Secondly,adding the tariff quota module in the GTAP model according to the need of simulation process;Finally giving the data processing and classification and design of simulation program.This thesis mainly does the simulation analysis of two aspects,the first,and the mechanism of action of external impact simulation,analysis of corn or corn production America international influence on the occurrence of maize industry in China and macro economy.The second,analysis of the impact of domestic import admittance policy further liberalization,according to the spirit of agricultural trade liberalization,If our country reducing over quota tariff or expanded corn import quotas,which will bring what kind of change on China’s corn industry security.(5)Simulating and analysis of influence of international corn market volatility on corn industry system in China.By setting the base scheme and two simulated,respectively,simulation analysis,the simulation results show,the volatility in world corn market to not only have a significant impact on corn prices impact on rice,wheat,soybeans and other related crop prices will also be affected.This again shows that indirect trade is the main form of the international prices of input.The simulation results show that the extent of primary products and price fluctuation is less than industrial manufactured goods.In addition,this paper also does effects simulation analysis on international corn market volatility on corn and related crop production,relates to the effects of corn each industry department,relates to a corn departments labor employment and income.(6)Simulation analysis of imported maize further open access policy effect on corn industry system in china.Firstly introducing the adjustment process of corn trade market access policy in our country,and analyzing the change trend of adjustment.Then analysis the tariff and import quota of foreign economic effect;finally,drawing up the simulation program,analyzing of the effect of corn import quotas and quota tariff rate adjustment to the corn industry system in china.The main results of simulation display as followed,existing in Sino US corn subsidy policy,the negative effects from the two policies of the corn industry,expanding the import quota to influence than give up the tariff quota policy completely relatively small.On the other hand,from the maintenance of sustainable development Chinese corn industry point of view,if China completely abandons the tariff quota policy,due to the negative impact of pay high subsidies to fully compensate for the corn import market brings excessively.This will bring greater pressure of China’s fiscal expenditure,and high corn subsidies will bring certain impact on other food production.So in the short term,China should also continue to implement the policy of tariff quotas of Maize.The international grain market place will be represent the general trend,our country can moderate the expansion of quotas,on one hand to meet the needs of the domestic market,on the other hand,comply with the international trend,the corn market will gradually be opened up.(7)Based on the open condition evaluation of maize industry system security and simulation,finally puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to ensure our country’s corn industry safety,providing the basis for relevant departments to formulate industrial policy.Countermeasures include:the establishment of early warning system,dynamic monitoring and so on.The innovation of this study lies in:(1)The thought of system analysis and methods are introduced into the fields of industrial safety,to study the corn industry security with a scientific view of system,can better reflect the deep connotation and characteristics of industry.(2)The application of time series analysis for dynamic inference and evaluation index of index data.Study on safety evaluation of existing agricultural industry is the use of static evaluation,there is also something called dynamic evaluation,but most of them in the past few years data direct evaluation,or with a few years of data changes in the average rate of deduction and analysis on the data.This evaluation method can’t consider the influence of economic and trade of periodic analysis,and lacking of index value variation regularity.The historical data of the research is for many years,through the establishment of time series model of index data,which can predict the extension on the data,and can fully analyze the regularity factors of each index change.(3)Application of CGE model to assess the effects of fluctuations in world corn market and China’s corn import admittance policy.The study of effects of domestic to international grain price fluctuations is mainly from the price of input,lacking further specific quantitative analysis and effect of price fluctuation on related industries.Besides this paper is based on the standard model of the global trade analysis(GTAP),using tariff quota policy side handle provides,simulation and analysis of influence of imported maize access policy adjustment,this method can provide reference for other industry analysis of import policy adjustment.(4)based on the study,although the state-owned capital is still in a dominant position in the corn industry chain,but the pace of international food enterprises intensify penetration in our country.(5)based on the simulation,The paper showed that indirect trade is the main form of international food prices input.World corn market fluctuation not only have a significant impact and influence on corn prices for rice,wheat,soybeans,etc will affect the price of the crop,which again is the main form of international food prices input indirect trade.(6)based on the simulation,The paper showed that subsidies for corn production is under the condition of open economy maintain security of corn industry necessary measures,but if only rely on subsidies to offset the impact of excessive open,will pay high subsidies every year,the implementation of high subsidy policy can also affect other food crops to produce for other industries also have damage,if the amount of subsidies will be higher.This not only has certain pressure of fiscal expenditure of our country. |
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