Study On Quality Of Intelligence Analysis And Its Improvement Strategies In Think Tanks Based On Information Foraging Theory

In the current background of increasingly complex international environment and complicated and volatile world situation,the decision-making bodies of governments have increasingly regarded think tanks as an important force influencing national development and government decision making,among which intelligence analysis plays a front-end support role in decision-making work of think tanks.Intelligence analysis in think tanks is characterized by importance,urgency and complexity,as it is deeply involved in the design,formulation and implementation of the strategic issues and public policies,which reflects the special significance of intelligence analysis.However,the construction of think tanks in China still faces weak research foundation,backward research methods,scarce management experience,insufficient influence and other challenges.Thus,China proposed to establish new types of think tanks with Chinese characteristics and improve the decision-making consultation system in 2013.In 2015,the General Office of the Central Committee of the CPC and the General Office of the State Council issued "Opinions on Strengthening the Construction of New Types of Think Tanks with Chinese Characteristics".To grasp this important historical period of great opportunities,strengthen the abilities of think tanks to identify the direction and prospects and provide insights in complex situations,great importance should be attached to studies on quality of intelligence analysis in think tanks and deeper analysis and exploration should be conducted.This paper indicates that the study of quality of intelligence analysis in think tanks should focus on how to find the valuable intelligence from the massive information in a short period of time,and analyze and use the information,while the study of Information Foraging Theory aims to help information forager get the highest average rate of gain from information foraging in a short period of time.Therefore,the principle and mechanism of Information Foraging Theory have great reference significance for the study of quality of intelligence analysis in think tanks.In this paper,it firstly gives a comprehensive review on the relevant research results of scholars both at home and abroad.On this basis and by combining with the Information Foraging Theory,it analyzes the issues on quality of intelligence analysis in think tanks.Secondly,this paper respectively introduces patch model,diet model and social information foraging model of Information Foraging Theory into the core segments of intelligence analysis in think tanks—intelligence collection,intelligence processing and group decision making by using document research method,qualitative research method,quantitative analysis method and empirical analysis method.After finding out the key variables which impact the intelligence quality most in each segment,it makes an in-depth analysis and finally puts up corresponding strategies and suggestions.The specific research contents of each chapter are as follows:Chapter One is the preface.After introducing the study background,it firstly elaborates on the theoretical and practical significance of this paper and clarifies its importance and necessity.Then it gives a comprehensive review of the research status both at home and abroad which lays a basis for the rationality and feasibility of the study.It also clarifies the research content and research methods used in the study.Finally,it draws the research technology roadmap and determines the research framework of this paper.Chapter Two elaborates on the related concepts and theoretical foundations.This chapter makes an analysis from four aspects:(1)the principles of patch model,diet model and social information foraging model in Information Foraging Theory;(2)the concept,connotation and particularity of intelligence analysis in think tanks;(3)the architecture of intelligence analysis in think tanks;(4)the concept and measurement of quality of intelligence analysis in think tanks.Chapter Three analyzes the formation mechanism of the quality research of intelligence analysis in think tanks based on Information Foraging Theory.Beginning with current status and quality issues of intelligence analysis in think tanks,this chapter emphasizes the importance of the quality research of intelligence analysis in think tanks,then elaborates on its improvement strategies' motivations.After that,it sorts out the research dimensions involved.Finally,it introduces the Information Foraging Theory into the study and clarifies its applicability to the study,thus to form the formation mechanism and structural mechanism of the quality and improvement strategies research of intelligence analysis in think tanks based on Information Foraging Theory.Chapter Four analyzes the influencing factors towards quality of intelligence collection in think tanks based on the Patch Model of Information Foraging Theory.After elaborating on the principle of patch model,this chapter firstly determines its applicability to the quality research of intelligence collection in think tanks,and finds out the key variable—average rate of gain from information foraging.On this basis,it conducts open coding,axial coding and selective coding for the material data collected by in-depth interviews based on grounded theory.Finally,it obtains 4 influencing factors towards quality of intelligence collection in think tanks and analyzes its influencing approach and relationship between each other.Chapter Five analyzes the key variables in intelligence processing in think tanks based on the Diet Model of Information Foraging Theory,and constructs an intelligence evaluation index system.After elaborating on the principle of diet model,this chapter determines its applicability to the intelligence processing in think tanks,and finds out the key variable that has an influence on the quality of intelligent processing — intelligence value.Thus,it is necessary to build up an intelligence value assessment index system.On this basis,this chapter conducts an empirical study by building up an intelligence value assessment index system for cyber security policy in think tanks.Firstly,it collects and sorts out the data by questionnaire method.Secondly,it analyzes the data through second-order CFA and AHP methods and identifies the content and weight of each index in the index system by combining objective weighting method with subjective weighting method.Finally,it verifies the intelligence value assessment index system for cyber security policy in think tanks by using SVR model.The analysis results of the data show that the verification is successful.Chapter Six analyzes the interference factors towards group decision making in think tanks based on the Social Information Foraging model of Information Foraging Theory.After elaborating on the theoretical principle of Social Information Foraging model,this chapter firstly determines its feasibility for the quality study of group decision making in think tanks,and finds out the key variable in this segment—group decision making interference factor.Secondly,it obtains the relevant material data through interviews and investigations.After preprocessing the data,it makes deeper analysis through LDA modeling,and finds out the interference factors for group decision making in think tanks.Thirdly,it obtains the final interference factors by introducing misperception theory,group diversity theory and power relations theory and by supplementing and correcting the former interference factors.Finally,the effectiveness is verified through the Wilcoxon rank sum test and Fleiss' Kappa test.Chapter Seven gives responding promotion strategies and suggestions in terms of the influencing factors of quality of intelligence collection,intelligence value assessment index system of the intelligence processing and the interference factors of group decision making based on the studies and analysis in Chapter Four,Chapter Five and Chapter Six,providing a practical basis for the study.Chapter Eight summarizes the research findings and discusses the limitations of the study.And the future study direction is clarified.This paper theoretically promotes the theoretical system construction of the quality research of intelligence analysis in think tanks,providing a new perspective for studies,broadening the study and application field of Information Foraging Theory,giving scientific methods and theoretical basis for the quality improvement of intelligence analysis in think tanks,and offering a strong theoretical support for studies through interdisciplinary comprehensive analysis.In the practical significance of the study,this paper attempts to improve the quality of intelligence analysis in think tanks,to give suggestions on the formation of new types of think tanks with Chinese characteristics and to provide an empirical analysis for the improvement of quality of intelligence analysis in think tanks.Future studies should further explore the influencing factors towards quality of intelligence collection in think tanks by broadening interview samples and deepening interview content and seek for other intelligence value assessment index systems besides the intelligence evaluation for cyber security policy in think tanks.Future studies should also strengthen researches and analysis on strategies towards external interference factors in group decision making in think tanks and the combination of theoretical exploration and practical experience.