| The dissemination of scientific literature enables the knowledge to express and reflect scientific activities to be recognized and utilized by human beings,and by promoting the accumulation of original knowledge and the continuous production of new knowledge,scientific research develops continuously.With the rapid development of the Internet and computer technology,the dissemination of scientific literature has gradually realized digital processing and storage,forming a single"scientific paper" as a unit,multi-point disclosure of information characteristics and knowledge content,The new form of knowledge dissemination and communication in the interaction of multiple links makes the interaction between the elements of scientific literature communication that represent the knowledge unit to form a network of intertwined communication,and it also changes the way of knowledge creation,distribution and use.Furthermore,it has a profound influence on the process and result of scientific research activities.So,in the process of spreading knowledge,how the communication elements are related,how the scientific literature communication network is’,formed and how it changes,what characteristics and rules can be embodied,further can excavate which science develops the dynamic and so on.As a result,a series of topics worthy of further study have been spawned.These are not only the new demands of science communication theories and methods in the face of new trends.Moreover,knowledge management and scientific management must be deeply explored in the face of new changes.The development of nature comes from evolution,and the development of mankind comes fromevolution.Survival of the fittest,natural selection,is the best interpretation of the theory of evolution.In the continuous development of scientific research,knowledge units such as communicators,communication themes,etc.,are similarly combined in the selection of excellence and in the constant adj ustment of each other and their relationship to the environment,In order to make the communication elements of the scientific literature dependent and the knowledge content unit carried by the scientific literature dependent on,transmit and diffuse along multiple nodes interactively,and realize the transmission elements and knowledge points,the network of scientific literature is composed of simple and complex nodes,and the network of scientific literature is composed of three dimensional network nodes,so as to realize the communication elements and knowledge points of scientific literature.The reproduction and evolution between knowledge points and knowledge systems.Then,from the perspective of knowledge evolution,from the point of view of the elements of scientific literature communication,how about the correlation function,attribute characteristics,behavior pattern and development path of each element?Starting from the evolution of scientific literature dissemination,how about the development,derivation and evolution of scientific literature?It is the main problem to be solved in this paper.Based on this,this paper combines the theory of knowledge evolution with the theory of scientific knowledge dissemination,social network analysis,motivation theory,communication dynamics,knowledge management and so on.The main contents and conclusions of the research on the evolution and prediction of scientific literature dissemination network include the following three aspects:(1)The research on the correlation of the elements of scientific literature communication,the expression of attribute characteristics and the construction of behavior pattern.First of all,with the help of the theory of scientific knowledge dissemination and the changes of scientific activities and co,mmunication environment,this paper analyzes the interaction between the elements of scientific literature communication,the various communication networks and their existing modes,and the construction and types of communication networks.Secondly,based on the thought of evolution and natural selection in the theory of knowledge evolution,applying the new knowledge generation mechanism of knowledge evolution and the natural selection mechanism of survival of the fittest and survival of the fittest,This paper analyzes and studies the characteristics and forms of evolution and properties of scientific literature communication network,such as growth,decline,heredity and variation.Finally,combining with the current application situation of scientific literature communication network,Construct the knowledge evolution model of scientific literature communication network.(2)Research on the influencing factors,development path and mechanism of scientific literature dissemination network.Firstly,with the help of life cycle theory,the growth stages of the scientific literature communication network are divided,and the influencing factors of the scientific literature communication network are extracted.Secondly,the knowledge evolution model of the scientific literature communication network is taken as the analytical framework.By using the social network analysis method,applying the theory of communication dynamics and motivation,and combining the specific quantitative indexes,the interaction between the elements of literature communication and its influencing factors in the evolution process is analyzed.The evolution process,evolution mechanism,evolution behavior and trend of scientific literature communication network are analyzed.Finally,the evolution model of scientific literature communication network based on knowledge evolution is constructed,and the simulation and empirical analysis of the model are carried out.The validity and feasibility of the model are verified in order to reveal the law of evolution implied in the network of scientific literature dissemination.(3)Third,the research of derivation and transmutation of scientific development revealed by the scientific literature based on knowledge evolution.Firstly,based on the evolution model of scientific literature communication network based on knowledge evolution,combined with the theory of knowledge evolution,the paper analyzes the elements and methods of network prediction of scientific literature communication network;secondly,it explores the construction of network prediction model of scientific literature communication network.The main variables and basic structural relationships of the prediction model are studied.Finally,the steps,measures and results of prediction are studied with the key words of scientific literature network prediction,and the social network analysis method and empirical analysis are combined.The prediction model is verified by application.Through the above research,this paper introduces the theory of knowledge evolution to explore the network of scientific literature dissemination,tries to cross-apply the original theories and ideas to solve new problems,and designs a new research framework to reveal the intrinsic nature of the problem.Therefore,the research of this paper,in theory,constructs the evolution model of scientific literature communication network knowledge and explains the interaction mechanism of influencing factors.Not only can we recognize the interaction of thecommunication elements of scientific literature in related fields or disciplines and the power source of the growth of communication network,but also reveal the intrinsic essence and evolution of the communication process.It can also be found that the phenomenon of knowledge evolution,the characteristics of attributes and the behavior of evolution in the network of scientific documents can reflect the dynamic and trend of scientific development,which makes the original research theory expand and innovate.Reconstructing the system of scientific knowledge dissemination has important theoretical value and supports the enrichment of theories and methods of knowledge management and scientific management.In practice,the evolutionary and predictive models studied are used in practical case analysis.The conclusions of the research are helpful for government departments to grasp the path of scientific knowledge transmission and evolution,and predict the development of science according to the dynamic evolution trend of communication network.In the design of service mode,it is beneficial for knowledge service organization to plan service strategy according to the interaction of communication elements,the representation of knowledge evolution and the evolution mode of communication network.Design practical service measures. |